Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by Soiled, Apr 1, 2016.
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@mikem2000 wrote, “The two players dropped out of the game because just the opposite were true. There was too much supply....”
One was shut down by the Feds, the other declared bankruptcy after “losing” significant inventory. You have no factual basis for your statements.
I stand corrected on why they dropped out.
about 5 here today your weather hitting us now. Talking up to 60" of snow a bit north of me and wind up to 40 mph, They will have to have the National Guard to help them poor guys dig out. Gonna get cold here with wind but the lake snow is gonna stay north. 40's next Monday heat wave !!!
Well, I was on a selling mode ... made money on the ones I just bought. LOL
I saw the selling opportunity and went for it. It helped me pay for my Apollo purchase too.
Silver/Gold as a "stacking thing" just doesn't fit in my portfolio anymore. So .. it must go.
In another thread you asked about the Velocity of Stock prices .. or something like that of what I mentioned.
That comes into play in when to sell a stock, if you are working on a Short Term buy/sell cycle. Though within Wash Sale Rules which may deviate one’s Buy/Sell Strategy.
But there is no “easy” answer to this. One must:
(a) Track Institutional Investments, increase exposure (they’re buying more). This decreases the stock qty in the open market. Though, when pushed into Mutual Funds anytime there is a market selloff, they sell off too. Thus you have to take that into account
(b) Track the number of days the stock is UP when the market is DOWN; even opposite the Institutional Exposure.
(c) Track competition stock prices, how much stock is in the marketplace by comparison, and their movement against the stock and the market.
(d) And historical RunUps of stock price
(e) Exposure and Push of the General Economy
(f) Company portfolio increases (M&As, new product, expansions, etc).
(g) Keep in mind Quarterly Release RunUPs in calculations.
One easy to see example is here:
From mid August to Sept was a Large RunUp (look at the volumes too). Over Buy easily, then it settled, then another super RunUp. This raised Red Flags in my spreadsheets to a SELL across the board for profit taking. Ding, Ding, Ding, Ding. Just before the Sell Off.
Pay note to the bar graphs on the bottom of Buy/Sell volumes. That helps indicate the over buy scenario along with the price. A large run up in stock price with very little volume is suspicious for price stability .. which as noted then crashed. Standard thing to watch all the live long day as the saying goes ....
Thus Price Volatility after Momentum Buying pushed the stock price too high for it's underlying stock / volume / price support.
But sell scenarios are great. If you are in a stock for the long run you now have to try and fortune tell of how long the crash will be, based upon your BuyIn basis. Because you have to wait 30 days to reenter otherwise you get hit with a Wash Sale on your taxes and all was done for naught.
I learned that lesson a few years ago .. I wasn't watching the stock related tax rules changes close enough. Also the FIFO Stock Rule changed my methods too. Instead of One brokerage account, I now have at least 4 to manage Stock selection via a different method.
you can do the same analysis of PMs, but based on different identifiers. One can be pretty accurate too. It just takes a lot of time to track and develop correlated analysis. Though PMs have several streams of unrelated correlated analysis (multiple analysis price theories that are uncorrelated to each other) making it a bit more difficult as PMs do not generate revenue.
I'm gettin' dizzy......
Thanks for the info.
I figured it was better placed here than the other thread.
I tried to condense it too
Hey, anybody who can follow the markets and make profits, I respect....immensely.
hey man, I resemble that remark !!
woops there it is
get ready for the TV commercials and CSN slings ...
If you read a few pages back ... i reference I'm back in when the market gets in the 22s. Yup, I was 30% in .. then a few weeks ago back in some more .. putting 30+ days between injections in case the market changes course. Now mulling my last 30% .... watching the "trade" stuff as the headwind into company profits, manufacturing output, etc.
I got out in large percentages while back when the market peaked in early Oct and early Nov. And getting back in late Dec / early Jan.
It takes a lot of devotion, time and no bias of when to buy/sell.
You have to pinpoint your buy/sell markers and stick to them .. modifying them over time for new stuff you see. Of course you make mistakes a lot on real short cycle stuff then end up a long term hold or a tax writeoff. You take the pluses with the minuses and move on.
It's not easy.
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