Message:

<p>[QUOTE=&quot;GoldFinger1969, post: 2357838, member: 73489&quot;]<b>Do we have a Stock Thread anywhere ?&nbsp; Maybe we should start one.</b></p><p><br /></p><p>S&amp;P 1,820 has held 3 times.&nbsp; 4th times are usually a break, but for now, looks like we rally.&nbsp; <b><span style="color: #ff0000">38% retracements of the move off the 2012 and 2009 lows are still possible:&nbsp; S&amp;P 1,700 and 1,560, respectively. </span></b></p><p><br /></p><p>I follow a guy who uses a variant of Fibonacci relationships.&nbsp; It&#039;s complicated and part artwork but he&#039;s got a great track record (I&#039;ve followed him since 2002).&nbsp; Here&#039;s a column from 2 weeks ago where he talks about the long-term perspective (that&#039;s when he brings out the monthly chart).&nbsp; Focus on Chart #3:</p><p>______________________________________</p><p><br /></p><p>I&#039;ll say it again:&nbsp; having the Fed and other central bankers &quot;in charge&quot; of the market is a stupid way to do it.&nbsp; It&#039;s distorting, and without real price discovery the whole job of examining markets is infinitely harder.</p><p><br /></p><p>But finally, at last, it seems like the magic hold the Fed has enjoyed over the markets is fading rapidly away.&nbsp; This brings a full 38.2% retracement of the entire bull market into the picture right now in 2016.</p><p><br /></p><p><img src="https://www.fractalmarketreport.com/admin/ckeditor/filemanager/userfiles/Feb_2016/feb11esW.gif" class="bbCodeImage wysiwygImage" alt="" unselectable="on" /></p><p><br /></p><p>As I&#039;ve discussed many times, the climax of this 3-year phase of the 36-year energy wave hits this year.&nbsp; The last time we were in a similar position was all the way back in 1980.</p><p><br /></p><p><img src="https://www.fractalmarketreport.com/admin/ckeditor/filemanager/userfiles/Feb_2016/feb11indu1980.gif" class="bbCodeImage wysiwygImage" alt="" unselectable="on" /></p><p><br /></p><p>There are techniques that can pinpoint when the energy waves are most disturbed in the shorter-term, and the most amazing thing about the last few years has been the way that the short-term negative energy has been completely inverted by the Fed, causing prices to rise when they should have been correcting.&nbsp; It was weird.</p><p><br /></p><p>But that looks like it is over now.&nbsp; This is a good thing for market participants, as a deflationary drop is something we know how to deal with:&nbsp; prices correct down hard to the 38.2% level, and then bounce.&nbsp; With the overall mood and economic picture scheduled to improve from 2017 - 2020, this could lead to a substantial rally after the disturbed period here in 2016 wraps up.</p><p><br /></p><p>The full 38.2% retracement works out to 1560 on the S&amp;P 500 index futures. </p><p><br /></p><p><img src="https://www.fractalmarketreport.com/admin/ckeditor/filemanager/userfiles/Feb_2016/feb11esRe.gif" class="bbCodeImage wysiwygImage" alt="" unselectable="on" /></p><p><br /></p><p>This level is even more compelling as it is the breakout level for the last bull run.&nbsp; These breakout levels that subsequently become 38.2% retracements are powerful attractor/repeller levels.</p><p><br /></p><p>So we&#039;re not quite there, but a breakdown this week is particularly damaging, and points to 1560.&nbsp; The time-frame on this could be accelerated too, as the period into late March looks very energetic, and potentially panic-inducing.</p><p><br /></p><p>I&#039;ve said it before, but it&#039;s worth repeating, if we do get the breakdown here the trading pattern should be highly reliable.&nbsp; Prices will be attracted down to 1560, and then just as quickly repelled back to the upside.&nbsp; And the more panicky the decline, the better the rebound.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

Your name or email address:

Do you already have an account?

• No, create an account now.
• Yes, my password is:
• Forgot your password?

Stay logged in