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Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by SD51555, Feb 24, 2016.

  1. SD51555

    SD51555 Active Member

    My winning streak with the septic touch continues. I single handedly set in motion the rebound in bullion prices. How you may ask?

    A few of you may have seen that I sold call options on all of my GDX shares a few weeks ago. GDX was around $15.40 when I sold March options for $17. I thought there was no way I could lose my shares at $17. Just couldn't happen.

    Fast forward to today, GDX has blown up some nearly 30% from there, and I'm sitting on missed upside of almost 18%. I'm ok with that though. My mayo jar full of bullion is rebounding with it.

    Just wanted to take a moment and say "your welcome" to everyone for taking another bullion market beating. I am willing to short the S&P 500 if you guys promise to donate money so I can get a nice cardboard box to live in when the market soars and wipes me out.
     
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  3. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Lol. You have about the same "negative midas touch" as I have sir. If I knew for sure where to invest I would do so. Since I don't, I simply spread it around hoping to not take too hard of a beating on any one thing.
     
  4. Rick Stachowski

    Rick Stachowski Motor City Car Capital

    That's why I worked " UNION " my money comes in the mail once a month, until death .

    Then my wife will collect it til she dies .....
    Live long the Masons ................
     
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  5. Brett_in_Sacto

    Brett_in_Sacto Well-Known Member

    Thank you - my long term DCA is around $1220-$1240 all in. Any upside just puts me in the money now...

    I'm watching for entry points to move money market mutual funds back into S&P and Mid-caps. I moved a good portion in when the DJIA was below 16, waiting for another opportunity.

    I'm going to try and take a class on stock/option trading this week. I'm sure it's a scam style class to get you to buy into something - but I'm "here for the free lunch" on this one.

    Don't think for a minute that I don't have any sympathy for you buddy. I'll make sure your cardboard box has wifi and a laptop for trading. :) And as long as I'm winning, I'll leave a 6-pack outside each night.
     
    SD51555 likes this.
  6. TJ1952

    TJ1952 Well-Known Member

    I'm with you. Diversify, spread it around and hope for the best. I just don't have the time to play the numbers. It reminds me of day trading.......forget it! I need something slow and steady with little risk. Where do you put your money today, in your mattress? :jawdrop::yack::woot::vomit: P.S. As a kid, I thought buying mint and proof sets each year would be an investment........WRONG!!
     
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2016
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  7. Brett_in_Sacto

    Brett_in_Sacto Well-Known Member

    I'm setting up longer term retirement income through a few residential rentals. 10% management fee and the rest is mine after expenses.

    Slow steady appreciating asset and stable income.

    Time is the investor's best friend and worst enemy when there isn't enough.
     
  8. TJ1952

    TJ1952 Well-Known Member

    Yes, you've got the right idea! It's to easy to piss it away and hard to save or invest. Call it what you want... Pay yourself first, 10% or higher of your income right into savings, dollar cost averaging, etc... Stay the course my friend, you're singing my song!
     
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  9. Brett_in_Sacto

    Brett_in_Sacto Well-Known Member

    Interesting story on the VIX (Volatility index) showing it's been peaking in 2016.

    I don't know that it's an indication to sell - but definitely an indication that you should hold cash and wait for buying opportunities to come.

    If the DJIA goes above 17k again, I'll take some off the table. As it starts to fall below 16k, I'll look for buying opportunities.

    <BEGIN STORY>
    A little-known event in the CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) may be flashing a warning sign that the market will see a big downside move this year.

    To be sure, the VIX itself is a popular measure of expected volatility in the S&P 500 (^GSPC). Options and futures contracts against it vigorously trade hands every day.

    And since the start of the year, the VIX has been elevated, something that happens when the market is worried. For most of 2016, it has been trading mostly above 20. That’s well above times of complacency, such as the period from mid-2012 to mid-2015, when the index was often found in a range between 11 and 20. The VIX’s counter-market tendencies lead some to call it the “Fear Index.”

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/indicator-has-a-big-warning-for-the-market-140916833.html#
     
  10. SD51555

    SD51555 Active Member

    I'm not convinced there's a blowout waiting to happen. Lots of stuff has had the air come out of it already. Lots of high flyers have had 20-30% taken off their highs.
     
  11. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter

    Stocks will continue up and down like a loyal, not-so-bright dog with the price of oil. Gold will go up when markets go down as investors sell stocks and need to park their money. Then, gold will go down when the market finds another bottom and investors sell gold to buy stocks. We are in a sing-song pattern.
     
  12. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Do we have a Stock Thread anywhere ? Maybe we should start one.

    S&P 1,820 has held 3 times. 4th times are usually a break, but for now, looks like we rally. 38% retracements of the move off the 2012 and 2009 lows are still possible: S&P 1,700 and 1,560, respectively.

    I follow a guy who uses a variant of Fibonacci relationships. It's complicated and part artwork but he's got a great track record (I've followed him since 2002). Here's a column from 2 weeks ago where he talks about the long-term perspective (that's when he brings out the monthly chart). Focus on Chart #3:
    ______________________________________

    I'll say it again: having the Fed and other central bankers "in charge" of the market is a stupid way to do it. It's distorting, and without real price discovery the whole job of examining markets is infinitely harder.

    But finally, at last, it seems like the magic hold the Fed has enjoyed over the markets is fading rapidly away. This brings a full 38.2% retracement of the entire bull market into the picture right now in 2016.

    [​IMG]

    As I've discussed many times, the climax of this 3-year phase of the 36-year energy wave hits this year. The last time we were in a similar position was all the way back in 1980.

    [​IMG]

    There are techniques that can pinpoint when the energy waves are most disturbed in the shorter-term, and the most amazing thing about the last few years has been the way that the short-term negative energy has been completely inverted by the Fed, causing prices to rise when they should have been correcting. It was weird.

    But that looks like it is over now. This is a good thing for market participants, as a deflationary drop is something we know how to deal with: prices correct down hard to the 38.2% level, and then bounce. With the overall mood and economic picture scheduled to improve from 2017 - 2020, this could lead to a substantial rally after the disturbed period here in 2016 wraps up.

    The full 38.2% retracement works out to 1560 on the S&P 500 index futures.

    [​IMG]

    This level is even more compelling as it is the breakout level for the last bull run. These breakout levels that subsequently become 38.2% retracements are powerful attractor/repeller levels.

    So we're not quite there, but a breakdown this week is particularly damaging, and points to 1560. The time-frame on this could be accelerated too, as the period into late March looks very energetic, and potentially panic-inducing.

    I've said it before, but it's worth repeating, if we do get the breakdown here the trading pattern should be highly reliable. Prices will be attracted down to 1560, and then just as quickly repelled back to the upside. And the more panicky the decline, the better the rebound.
     
  13. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    Lots of stocks are in bear markets. The generals -- the FANG stocks -- resisted the decline in 2015 and early-2016. If they go down, the ones already down can go down more.
     
  14. SD51555

    SD51555 Active Member

    I don't follow Facebook or Netflix stock. I own Amazon, and they fell from a high of $680 to below $500 for a short while in '16 already. Google has held firm.
     
  15. Brett_in_Sacto

    Brett_in_Sacto Well-Known Member

    So to put it into technical terms.... "Gonna fall down - go boom" soon... :)

    I'm prepared. Have been all summer. I've just suspected nothing better than sideways with big down movement in the worst case due to political climate (lame duck president, new taxes/fees, businesses just finally catching up, etc).

    I don't believe everything I read on the internet, but it's always good to read and see if it matches up with reality.

    Time to batten down the hatches and enjoy the ride.
     
  16. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    If any of you are into conservative, income investing, I belong to a site with very savvy individuals well worth the cost of a subscription. Edit, if people want to get the name from you, use PM.

    The site has plenty of successful investors, businessmen, and retirees. Many manage their own money -- they eat their own cooking. Some of them are specialists in certain sectors and they know more than the sell-side analysts, trust me as someone with a few decades of financial sector work experience.

    Lots of research, newsletters, and commentary make the site a great place where information is freely shared. No spam like on Yahoo or other message boards.

    I've been a member since inception in 2003.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 26, 2016
  17. Phil Ham

    Phil Ham Hamster

    My contribution to this post is the use of the word "your". Shouldn't it be You're?
     
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  18. SD51555

    SD51555 Active Member

    UPDATE: I could write the book on how to lose trading options. o_O

    The $90 I got for selling three options is being dwarfed by the ascent of GDX. Reaching for the pennies, I've blown it on the dollars. I'm looking at $800 missed upside at this point.

    gold.PNG
     
  19. Brett_in_Sacto

    Brett_in_Sacto Well-Known Member

    At this moment, Gold and Silver ask is at 1272 and 15.75 respectively.

    I wish I could say "I feel your pain" but I'd be lying just like Clinton was...

     
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  20. SD51555

    SD51555 Active Member

    No sympathy needed. I'll take a trimmed gain on GDX if it means the bullion is finally showing some signs of life.
     
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  21. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter

    Bullion is a real interesting trade. On one hand, inflation is low to the point where gold should be continuing it's fall. But negative interest rates overseas apparently have thrown a new twist into it. Instead of being charged to park their money and with bond rates low, some investors are choosing to park it in PMs.
     
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