your opinions on the potential silver downside

Downside is a hard question to answer, but hopefully we call all talk through the main issues.

Although some silver can be reclaimed through recycling efforts (x-rays, etc.), much of the industrial silver is 'used up', never to be seen again. This is one reason why there is more gold for investment above ground now than silver.

Here is an excellent article written by Ted Butler regarding this very topic. Keep in mind it was written in 2006.

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1160149628.php

Josh
SilverSaver by Mass Metal LLC

 

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VAT is Obamanation's December 2010 Christmas Present.

 

Hope you have started buying by now. Good luck.

For many years, I use to pick up coins and rounds at small town shops on a regular basis. I had no hesitation. Yet, with internet purchases, and bulk bullion orders, I did not hold the same confidence. Not sure why. The cure was to make the first buy - it was a small one - just 2 - 1/10oz. gold Austrian Phils. It did not take long before I felt OK about buying 1/4 bags and full Junk bags.

Try it - you'll like it.:hail:

 

the internet is the only way ive bought so far, ebay to be exact. i have no fear of buying from ebay even off non-dealer sellers. im new to PM's but ive found that i can save a decent amount from what i would pay at a "reputable online dealer". of course you need to do your homework to limit getting ripped off as much as possible but for the most part i think its pretty safe. ive saved 2-300 off every 100 ounces purchased and right now im in for 650 ounces for a savings of around $1500. it adds up quick when you buy alot probably not worth it if your an ounce a week buyer.

 

I got turned off on silver for a few reasons:

1. Premiums that are $2 to $3 over spot for ASE's, which means you're already in a losing position from the get-go, and the price of silver has to climb dramatically if you're to recoup your investment, let alone make a profit.

2. It's boring to stack silver. I'd rather collect interesting coins.

3. Crazy survivalists in the silver investing community. You will soon learn about S.H.T.F., which apparently is some apocalyptic scenario where silver become unbelievably valuable.

 

It takes all kinds. Personally, I think it is more important to have extra food and water equipment on hand, such as pumps and hoses. In regard to silver, I encourage people to buy what suits them. I only draw the line when paying a large premium for bullion in a slab graded MS69.

I doubt I would be classified a survivalists, as having downed utilities where I live is part of the life style. Sometimes it can last weeks and weeks. Ice storms can really be a hassel.

 

I was being kind of a smart a**, and apologize for that. I am just a little tired tonight and did a little typing without thinking. In all fairness, you don't really run into too much of the SHTF crowd on Coin Talk, and I'm actually pretty impressed with the knowledge here.

Again, sorry for the smart a** comments.

 

For #1. It is IMO much easier for a person who wanted to invest in (or actively trade) silver is to buy stock of silver mining companies (if they are any) or to buy the exchange traded fund called SLV. Trading physical silver bullion is not worth it because the spread will eat up most (if not all) of any profit that a person might have unless that person bought in very early (such as when silver was $4-$5/oz).

For #3. I have been on other gold and silver forums that are not collector friendly and they talk about SHTF and about how gold and silver will again become money and will be useful for bartering for necessities. I am not a survivalist and I do not prep for SHTF, however, I agree with what some of their points such as that gov't is out-of-control with its spending and passing of "bad" legislation and with the eventual collapse of the dollar. Even though I agree with some of their points, I do not think the world is going to come to an end and I do not think that SHTF will happen. I will, however, go on some of those other gold and silver sites to just lurk and get a different perspective on certain issues.

I agree with you on #2. I like to buy what I like to collect and in my case I like to collect 1-oz 1970's silver art bars. I used to stack "boring 10-oz bars", Engelhard, Sunshine, JM, and other brand name silver but I got bored with it and gave up stacking once I realized that I was more of a collector than a regular silver stacker. I become very interested in silver art bars in August 2008. Once I started collecting silver art bars, I gave up stacking the "boring" stuff and sold all of my Engelhard Prospectors, SAEs, JM, and other brand name silver bars and used the proceeds to start buying '70's silver art bars that I was interested in collecting. In other words, I lost all of my "boring" silver (and "boring" gold) to a '70's silver art bar "addiction".

As I mentioned in the past, I am not a SHTF prepper. I am not an investor. I am not a speculator. I do not buy silver art bars as an investment. I do not buy silver art bars as a hedge against inflation. I do not buy silver art bars for SHTF prepping because I am not a survivalist. I buy silver art bars because I am a collector and silver art bars is I what I like to collect.

 

According to experts, we're mining half of what we are consuming yearly. That is just talking about our use industrially, not considering precious metals and bullion collectors. In my opinion, I think it might reach a 1:1 ratio with gold. May sound crazy, but could be possible. Either way, I'm no expert, just a bullion collector.

 

Like what? Silver is used in medical applications for bandages for healing wounds because it kills bacteria also the new thing coming is putting silver in all furniture in hospitals (chairs, beds, couches etc.). Silver will be used in new batteries for cars, silver in all the circuitry for the new smart phones. Also, silver will be huge in the solar panel industry. So, there will be no shortage of uses for silver in the future, just shortages of silver.

 

Hey Kev,

Tried to send you a PM. Can you receive PM's? It wouldn't let me send you one.

 

Oh come now, everyone deserves a good laugh every now and again.

 

Quote:

"Like what? Silver is used in medical applications for bandages for healing wounds because it kills bacteria also the new thing coming is putting silver in all furniture in hospitals (chairs, beds, couches etc.). Silver will be used in new batteries for cars, silver in all the circuitry for the new smart phones. Also, silver will be huge in the solar panel industry. So, there will be no shortage of uses for silver in the future, just shortages of silver."

Cost/benefit - if the supply of silver becomes short and unreliable or the price of silver becomes to high in relation to the benefit of its use in an industrial application - then a design modification which requires less silver per finished unit or some other subsitute will be employed. So you belive slver based solar panels will be economically reasonable @ $50.00 an ounce silver? Heck solar energy is having trouble gaining market share with $18.50 silver.

 

Silver will rise as long as there is a FEAR of inflation eroding your assets. When return on investment appears to be stable and positive for the medium and long term (that is interest in EXCESS of inflation), commodities will fall because they have no return on investment other than appreciation due to demand. Potential uses of silver are speculative and unsustainable for keeping prices high until they are actually to the point of happening.

 

With 100 to 1 leverage in the paper to physical PM market (basically fractional reserve PM's) it's just a matter of time until there is a crisis of physical delivery. Right now the COMEX pays a 25% cash premium to avoid delivery. Gold or silver.

And FYI anyone who uses silver in industry will hedge their future silver usage by buying for the future at today's prices especially in anticipation of a physical shortage in the future.

And silver is not even at it's adjusted for inflation high. Which should be about $150 and ounce and gold at $2300 an ounce. Plus the silver to gold ratio now is 65 to 1. So, there is room to run on that basis alone to about $80 to get to the historical ratio of 16 oz of silver to 1 oz of gold.

 

It's just a matter of time. The drum beat grows louder every day for alternative energy. Solar and wind are the easiest. Solar has taken off in China and Europe.

 

No downsides what so ever. The downside will be when it is more expensive than gold, :crying:

 

I think we all need to get a grip on silver being in the $18 range for now. Now is a short term thing, as it seems to have been here since about Sept/Oct, but that is where it has been, give or take, for now. This might be short term or long term, but it has been in this range for about 9 months.

I see it going up soon, but soon is relative too.

 

I would modify this to say, I see it going up next. Sometimes it is easier to know what will happen than when. Good luck to all silver holders.