You think gold will surpass $2,000 by December 2020?

Wait till you see the then price of eggs, bread , or milk in all except farm country.
Stay in cash until the direction looks long term,IMO Jim

 

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$3,000 Gold from Merrill Lynch:

 

No reason to believe that would happen. Every currency you would actually want is doing the exact same thing and carries trillions and trillions in debt as well.

Despite what preppers say there's no realistic scenario where people are going around casually trading PMs as a new currency

 

You are assuming all currencies are spending the same per capita. If every nation spent exactly the same, then your theory would hold. I simply see the US as being more affected, and spending relatively more, which should lead to weakening. If you logic held, why did the USD strengthen during this crisis, and why are you thinking this artificial strengthening will not abate once its over?

Btw, I see worldwide inflation at some point, not just US inflation. You are right, trillions are being pumped into the system now, at some point all of this cheap money WILL inflate assets if you believe Econ 101.

 

Damn right...you know how hard it would be to get a 400 oz. of silver or gold into your pocket ?

Makes George Costanza's fat wallet problem small by comparison !

 

The older I get, the fatter my wallet becomes man. Dangedest thing. When I was a young man I never could feel my wallet, now it makes me lopsided sitting down and I swear I have taken everything out of it I do not need to carry with me.

Btw, no, it's not money making it that way. I have a wife, two kids, and another due next week. Too much money is not a concern.

 

Medo, not only that but a fat wallet can throw your spine out of whack (goto 30 second mark):

 

Well, if things get tough, I've got at least 4 Saint-Gaudens coins....each is worth $20 according to the reverse.

But I'm gonna have to crack them out of these stupid plastic thingys......

 

Trillions of dollars were printed during the last recession and inflation didn't rise, if you believe the official statistics.

 

When everyone everywhere is doing it, they don't have too. It generally happens when isolated places are doing it not the whole world. Can throw Econ 101 out the window to some extent with this as there are no hard laws of economics.

Pretty much all the ones actually are if not more, Europe is spending 10s of trillions including GB and the pound spending trillions (their debt isn't that far behind ours anyways yet theyre the strongest currency in the world). Only the Pound, Euro and Franc (which is about 1 to 1 right now) for major world currencies are worth more.

The Euro and Pound doing the same thing and several countries in the Euro are really struggling medically with this, the Swiss Franc is kind of a minor reserve currency, most won't move out of USD for the Yen or anything else and China is the one country that could have huge repercussions from this long term hence the coverup.

There's really no reason to believe the dollar is going to get weak (though that would be a lot better for US businesses).

 

Because while inflation is everywhere and all the time a "monetary phenomenon" as Milton Friedman once said, the Quantity Theory of Money allows for a drop in Velocity (V) to offset all the money being created.

 

Absolutely lol. Plus in all seriousness the only way that happens wide spread is if the dollar is worthless and collapsed, if that happens pretty much everyone will be dead anyways from people fighting over food etc. It won't happen like that though nor have PMs really protected against anything during this

 

Some have theorized that influx of money created hidden inflation that kept the US out of a deflationary spiral.

 

It pumped up asset prices as opposed to real GDP as in the past. The "money multiplier" has been falling for years (decades ?) and $1 in credit now generates much less than $1 in GDP.

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in the UK Telegraph has some great columns on this.

 

I believe this, as well as the measurement of inflation is flawed. Can ANYONE look at the price of houses versus incomes the last 40 years and tell me there is not massive inflation happening in real estate and some other assets? However, asset price increases are not factored into traditional inflation gauges, yet are all too real if you are trying to get off the rent merry-go-round.

 

We can agree to disagree. We can have a side bet on the USD versus a basket of currencies two years from now. I am not thinking falling out of bed, but weaker than today, (ignoring the election which could have its own effects).

 

Where are you measuring real estate prices -- San Francisco ? The NY Metro Area ? Chicago ?

Go to most of the country and price increases are much more moderate.

 

I use Minnesota, Iowa, Ohio, and GA where I have relatives. A $140,000 house in Des Moines 12 years ago is now $240,000. Sure doesn't look like 2% inflation according to my math. Maybe some areas are only seeing 2% growth, but others have seen 14% for years.

Here is an article with a chart showing inflation adjusted housing price growth.

https://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-adjusted-prices/inflation-adjusted-housing-prices/

 

Our house has barely doubled in appraised price in the 24 years we've been here, and this is a pretty hot area for real estate (central NC). Of course, we're in the less desirable school district.

As for price of gold? I'd be a bit surprised if we don't at least touch $2000 before the end of the year. But I wouldn't be surprised if we also go down sharply from the current level.