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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;yakpoo, post: 7654382, member: 18157&quot;]Other than small, slow fluctuations in supply and demand, the price of PMs is generally the inverse of the denominated currency. In other words, PM prices directly reflect changes in currencies. Gold, for instance, can increase in price in Dollar terms while simultaneously falling in price in Yen terms.</p><p><br /></p><p>To predict the forward price of Gold (in Dollar terms), we must predict the forward price of the Dollar. Typically, that&#039;s a hard thing to do. However, the Fed looks to be getting painted into a corner...making a Dollar event not &quot;if&quot;, but &quot;when&quot;.</p><p><br /></p><p>A little over a year ago, we shut down major portions of the U.S. economy and productivity fell precipitously. The helicopter money (stimulus) was paid for with U.S. Treasury debt. Since the bond market can&#039;t absorb all this debt at once, the Fed buys the excess supply. A year ago, the Dollar Index was over 100. Today, it&#039;s holding steady at 90. A year ago, the Fed&#039;s balance sheet was $4 Trillion Dollars. Today, the Fed holds $8 Trillion Dollars. </p><p><br /></p><p>The Dollar appears to be in distress. It appears as though the Dollar is in a tailspin and the Fed is keeping the Dollar steady by buying up excess U.S. Treasuries (stairstep pattern 1st chart). </p><p><br /></p><p>The Fed has been making noise about easing bond buying and letting rates climb. If the Fed does this, inflation will spike and interest rates will climb. The Fed will walk the line as long as possible, but pressures are building.</p><p><br /></p><p>If/when the Fed tapers its bond purchases, the stock market will likely contract as commodity prices advance. The speed and magnitude is all up to the Fed, but if it gets out of control, changes could be fast and considerable.</p><p><br /></p><p>I think we&#039;ll be fine through this Christmas season and likely through the 2022 midterm elections, but after that...PMs (commodities in general) could be the place to be.</p><p><br /></p><p>[ATTACH=full]1315891[/ATTACH] [ATTACH=full]1315892[/ATTACH][/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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