With rising unemployment when will coin market crash?

During the last recession, precious metals went up and so did the collectible coin market. Will it happen this time? Your guess is as good as mine...

 

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That’s lovely if you can liquidate what you have at a fair price or else you will lose thousands of dollars and have cash flow issues.

 

If you have a 1909-O $10 Indian, it's not an Omega counterfeit, it's just a counterfeit. Do you mean $5 Indian?

 

No It's a 1909-P $10 Indian. Need to send it in to IGC for authentication.
The thread is here with pixs of the coin: https://www.cointalk.com/threads/omega-counterfeit-10-indian.350282/

They did'nt strike 1909-O $10 gold but they did for the $5 Indians which has an asterix in the RedBook: "Beware spurious "O" mint mark."

 

Ebay's great for buying used train track if you have kids who need extra track for their trains. Also for certain 'inexpensive' coins. My son did a school report on Douglass MacArthur. I was able to buy an 1947 Philippines Peso with MacArthur on the front (in an NGC-65 slab) for around $50 which he brought into class.

Other than exceptions like that I think it's horrible for coins.

 

eBay is a goldmine for nice coins if you know how to grade, how to interpret pictures/scans, how to authenticate, and how to utilize the site as a whole. I bought this draped bust dollar raw for $1400 with not-so-great pics. It graded VF35 and then CAC'd.

 

My contention is that those completely on the sidelines miss a lot of information. The collector looking around for something and seeing various pricing in different venues is going to have much more knowledge of what prices are doing than someone just casually glancing at them from a distance

For instance you like to say prices have been steadily declining since 2008 because thats what the chart you always point to shows, but that just isn't accurate. For one thing steadily implies a consistent gradual drop which it is not, there's ups and downs to it. Prices without question shot up during the metal run up, gold is without question more expensive today than in 2008 etc.

There were several years of pretty strong price increases between 2008 and now, yes some have given some of that back last year but we are again seeing increases again this year especially on premium stuff. The only steady part about it is that it goes up and down just like all markets, but no we have not seen 12 years of consistent steady price declines

It's not really a comparison if you're saying 1 thing compared to everything else possible especially when most dealers sell on eBay as well.

I'm pretty sure Heritage is still the largest in terms of total dollars, but eBay is the largest in terms of sales volume.

You just proved my point. If you don't like the data you just ignore it or say they don't know what they're doing and this is where being completely on the sidelines comes into play as well.

The fact is many dealers do source inventory from eBay, while some things may appear more expensive on eBay there are also countless things that cost more at a show or LCS than they do on eBay.

 

That is a nice Bust dollar. It's also at the very top of VF grades. I had to go thru at least 20 of them in VF35 before seeing something that approached that in appearance. Even then it sold for $3,055.

Here's the listing. There's another nice 1803 selling for $3055 in 2016 but it's the "flat bust" type which show little detail.

It depends how much time one spends looking. Snagging a raw original Bust dollar at a good price is tricky.

 

That is a gorgeous 1803 and it's easy to see why it CAC'd at 35. Nice catch.

 

In 2008-09 ?

Bullion got smashed and I am pretty sure numismatics followed.

 

I've been watching Saint-Gaudens prices closely, and I'm looking at HA and GC. For Ebay, you have to watch only auctions with multiple bidders and still throw out the occasional low/high outliers.

 

You have to throw out the low high outliers everywhere unless you can understand how the quality impacts the price. That's the part that most people struggle the most with figuring out were people stupid to bid so high or is that a coin that will always sell strong and vice versa.

 

You're the one that said you had an nonexistent 1909-O $10 Indian. Go re-read your post.

 

I go by the PCGS 3000 index (evaluate trend) and sometimes drill down on certain sub groups like Classic Commems.

The market has been in decline for sometime and the graph confirms this. Declining population of collectors, US coins more expensive vs world (a market many flocking to) and of course the covid unemployment black hole, uncertain outlook.

In buying / selling coins market decline can mean more coins affordable. However lack of qualified retail buyers with money will aggravate the situation further. While many went bankrupt from the super nova of the 89 crash, the current situation seems more of a slow flame out, dying star (definitely steady decline per graph) and this has been going for sometime (and concur since 2008). One fellow In coin biz I know (sometimes shared tables with) covid related job loss, cc debt default. He did settle 2 of the largest accts for 40c on dollar. Even with covid situation one acct quick to sue. Another acct he is holding out for statute limitations / hope for debtor covid legislation. He cancelled his greysheet subscription (anger over bids going down plus his desire cutting fixed cost expense “current market conditions”).

I am involved in the marketplace both shows and online. Shows can be hit or miss and a real bummer if buyers coming in room broke. In that situation I try make lemonade out of lemons - good buying. Online retail for me lately has done well but can be slow during summer doldrums.

 

I think you see less outlier anomalies on HA and Stacks and GC than on Ebay.

Simple case of professionals more drawn to HA/S/GC.

 

This seemed a bit jumbled, not sure if part of it wasn't typed correctly ?

I got the gist but lost the detail.

 

Not at all and if you want to talk about the best of the best some of that goes to Legend as well.

Higher value coins do generally go there more as there is less risk for the consignor but since we are apparently talking about a huge catch all index it would be wrong to say that overall

 

Yes, but Legend conducts even fewer public auctions in terms of periodicity and quantity than the other shops. They really are high-end.

I think I agree here....