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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;beef1020, post: 1400495, member: 24544&quot;]I hear this all the time and want to point out the fallacy, there is no money on the sidelines.&nbsp; All the money is somewhere, it only moves around.&nbsp; So the correct question is how likely is it to move into a pretty metal with little intrinsic value and no production capacity?&nbsp; In full on fear mode with negative real yeilds that pretty metal looks attractive, but in the current environment not so much.</p><p><br /></p><p>One other point about money on the sidelines.&nbsp; Take a look at the re-balancing going on in the current account surpluses of Japan and China.&nbsp; When they run big surpluses they have to recycle those dollars into something, and it&#039;s been treasures, gold, and yen.&nbsp; Their surpluses are dropping sharply and will continue to do so for structural reasons.&nbsp; The decrease in demand from these two economies not recyling massive amounts of US dollars is THE driver.&nbsp; If you want to talk about money on the sidelines they are the whole game, everyone else is just a gnat.&nbsp; Look at the moves in gold, treasures, and yen!!!&nbsp; This is a major move people.</p><p><br /></p><p>Now, no one can predict the future, but the re-balancing going on in China and Japan is huge.&nbsp; It could be picked up by the oil exporters as they face the same recycling issues, and if oil keeps going up they will have more and more dollars.&nbsp; But, the key point is the people who were driving demand for gold, treasuries, and yen, will not be driving that demand in the future.&nbsp; It could get picked up by others, but it might not.&nbsp; It&#039;s one thing to gamble that a trend will continue, it&#039;s another thing to gamble that a trend will change.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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