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Message:: [QUOTE="ukgoldbug, post: 1248873, member: 18631"]Why isn't silver going up?   First that's a good question. It's a rare metal, (as is gold – although gold is rarer.) Silver, however, much like platinum, also has industrial uses. Silver was used mainly in the production of photographic film but this has declined rapidly with the advent of digital. But there is growth for silver in other areas. Medical being one.   But, that background does not explain the silver price movement, or rather the lack of it compared to gold's sustained price rise, so why?    Coin collectors like to own physical coins – that's why they're collectors! They know their hobby well. But some may say it seems the more they discover about their hobby the less they seem to know, because as they dig into the detail of their interest, layer upon layer of further coin information unravels and is exposed before their eyes? What can then happen is, things you thought you knew about your coin, which you may have owned for several years, were no longer what they seemed, based on the discovery of fresh information. You may have been attracted to your coin several years ago based on some initial research and convinced yourself back then that the investment would be positive, maybe even shrewd? Only to discover now, perhaps rather harshly, that the coin was not as rare or as sought after as you believed.   So coins are one thing, but along with coins come human beliefs, which may change. One day they might be right, the next wrong, indifferent, rational and irrational. Take one extreme example. As we know Coins can be debased. Why would someone do that? To scam other people, yes. But what the forger is hoping is that people will not notice the forgery. The forger is relying on people believing something. He is hoping people will believe that the coins are genuine.   So what does all this preamble have to do with the silver price?   The silver market is small, smaller than gold,even. Not only that but virtually all of it is traded through the Comex market, a part of Nymex. Nowhere else, other than coin shops and the US Mint, which are tiny compared to even Comex. So Comex is in effect a bottleneck, through which supply can be “controlled.” This means there is scope to manipulate demand and therefore price.   Silver as many of you have appreciated has a long and historic link with gold. That link is stronger than you think, in people's minds, as part of their beliefs about the value of precious metals. Hopefully you have begun to appreciate where I am going with this? No? Well it is less about silver and more about what someone can make you believe about the price of silver. The people who play a large part in silver market trading like to make a profit at what they do! (No surprise there then.)They get very, very upset if they make losses. Well they would, those losses can run into $billions, which have to be made good.      So who are the people who get very upset, these major traders? One well known active player is J.P. Morgan investment bank and others like it, that make a market in precious metals trading.    Hopefully many of you will have appreciated the very difficult economic conditions in which the banks and in fact all of us are now living. Only many in the general population are not and are only really concerned about whether they have a job and can afford to buy groceries, perhaps understandably, that is all they can handle. Sadly, the economic conditions today are, well there's only one word that truly reflects the actual situation – dangerous! The scale, magnitude and depth of the global economic problems today are truly epic, compared to even 5 years ago. A lot has changed. I know you may be thinking, if it's that bad, how come they haven't said so on CNBC? Well CNBC is reluctant to tell you, as are many other broadcasters, among them, Bloomberg! In fact ALL of the mainstream media, is NOT telling. Sure their “anchors” are asking the question, but notice how the answers coming from stockbrokers, investors, even politicians talk up the market, but talk down the suggestion of any kind of problem or are just evasive and give a bland neutral answer.....and then switch to another story. The order of the day is don't spook people.....wait for it....because it's bad for business! Are you thinking, it may be bad for business, but what about people?? Well people who are spooked don't buy stuff. Stuff that also happens to be advertised, meaning they don't borrow either and the resultant lower spending is bad for jobs, bad for the economy and difficult for politicians. That's why they don't “over do” the negative stuff.   So what does this have to do with the price of silver? It's more about the price, in Dollars, or more specifically paper currencies, all of them. Euros, Yen, Sterling, Swiss Francs etc. Since the Lehman crash bankers have been looking for safe havens. In investing terms literally at the billions of Dollar level. But you cannot put an amount of money this size just anywhere, even if you think you can. Maybe you're thinking why don't they just buy up all the gold and silver with it? They couldn't! Not without affecting the gold price, dramatically!   If, say, you have $300Billion to invest, all at one time, there are very few places that can take that kind of deposit. Them knowing you could cash it in next week and you wanting to know you will get it all back!. One such place you CAN though is investing US Treasuries. It's not racy, but then it's not meant to be. This is safe haven numero uno for Dollars in the Trillions. There isn't much of an alternative. So this is where most Dollars are locked away.   Unless......unless what? Unless the the Dollar itself becomes worthless. That's scary, (crazy even?) isn't it? Well it could become worthless...how? Maybe if the money supply (of paper money) had been rocketing (printed) say, to pay interest on “debt ceiling” debts? Or even if the debt itself, created with red ink in an account book, by the US Treasury, had monetised some of that $14.3 Trillion in debt that Obama & Boehner were on about two weeks ago? In other words cash was being printed for the sake of it. Literally created accounts with overdrawn balances on one side and on the other side  newly printed paper bank notes?    Does this happen? Well, Treasury bond paper (basically a Gov't I.O.U certificate, that's all a certificate!) is handed to so called Primary Bankers in exchange, from these bankers, for their Dollars. In the amount of dollars written on the bonds or certificates, (e.g with words like Pay the US Treasury $4.5Billion dollars today, on loan for 3-5 years.) Why would a “primary” banker do such a thing, like empty his pockets with quantities of money on this scale every week and give it to the US Gov't? Wouldn't they go broke?! Yes they would. So what happens is.....the next day the Bankers can go to the US Federal Reserve of N.Y, (which prints US $ bank notes....and yes...swap those US Treasury Certificates for nice new bank notes, replenishing the Dollar notes they handed over to  The Treasury the day before! They have to do it this way because it's the law. The intention here being to make it look official.) So the Treasury now spends these borrowed Dollars to get Government things “done,” like defence, welfare, etc. Next time the US Treasury needs more cash to spend it repeats the operation and those printed notes given to the bankers last week are then handed, (sorry lent,) to the Treasury. The bankers then pop along to the Fed and get them back. (Don't believe this operation happens like I've said?) Then go to Google and search- “Primary Open Market Operations.” Anyway  for now just recall the opening suggestion I made at the beginning of the previous paragraph, about the Dollar becoming worthless, as it's importance is relevant to the question, namely why is the price of silver not going up? (Even if you now want to know about the potential collapse of the Dollar. Relevance is important.)   When bankers start to believe that paper money is seriously under threat, as a store of value and begin to doubt they can rely on the usual safe haven what would they do? They are then forced to look for other alternatives as a store of value. Gold is now in the frame! But there's a problem....there's not enough gold, (because it's rare!) and you can't ask the Chinese to just make a load! So whilst accumulating gold, bankers must not, I repeat MUST NOT, give away that this is what they are trying to do. Otherwise the gold price will rocket before they have got all the gold they want/need!    One way of keeping a lid on things is to manipulate the price of silver....(finally he makes his point about the silver price)....downwards. Yes downwards, the more dramatic the crash, the better. Because it makes you worried, which is what the banker wants. This is more important than the actual price of silver itself! Silver is known as poor man's gold. Most cannot afford gold, but can afford silver. If a credible amount of fear about the price of silver can be maintained, it will put poorer people off wanting to invest in gold. Why? Because of fear. Fear that if they get it wrong in gold, the financial mistake would be very great...compared to silver. Make a mistake investing in silver and it's not so punishing. That is why the silver price is heavily manipulated and controlled. So called fundamentals do exist, of course and may well be what prevails at more normal times for currencies. But that is not now. The point to remember here is, if I were a banker, what do I care about. Answer, that you behave how I want you to, not whether your stash of silver eagles goes up or down in value!   Are you all too late to invest in gold, or silver? The gold price rise after it blew through $1000 is mostly all bankers getting out of Dollars, very, very quietly. But as for investing in these metals now, I would say yes, buy some. But for now all I wanted to do was answer the other question, about the silver price.   I hope it's been “interesting.”[/QUOTE]

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