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<p>[QUOTE="Del Pinto, post: 2049284, member: 73128"]What market, the bullion market? Can you prove that?</p><p><br /></p><p>Re: culls. And maybe not be "fake" but also temporary? That's the caution. The market for whatever isn't always rational but proves so over time. If you have information to support high coin premiums for culls otherwise, please share. What's the average premium 3-, 5- 10- years back? And what's a reasonable forecast based on demographics, 5- 10-years forward?</p><p><br /></p><p>Unless a bullionist has long term data or some other coherent rationale to support the idea the current premium is "reasonable," then obviously overpaying for "numismatic-bullion" (or whatever commodity) is indeed "stupid." Buy low, sell high, right? We shouldn't defend (minimize, rationalize, etc.) others' bad investment choices either, however small.</p><p><br /></p><p>Culls may be attracting novice or quasi-bullionist attention (and some Doomer hoarding?) In that case, Chris' observation it's 'dumb money' is spot-on. This is a poor way to invest in Silver (or anything) he's right on that.</p><p><br /></p><p>However, I don't necessarily assume these impecunious cull buyers are primarily "bullionists", so it's really an apples-to-organges comparison. Suppose marginal demand is primarily a broad and deep segment of the coin collecting market (something like the State Quarter collectors, maturing) then something else is happening. Imagine people 35 or 40 years old who would have been spending more on "better" coins back in the 1990s are now substituting (or 'slumming') with what they can afford: two birds with one stone? Whether it's ammo or US Silver, hoarders overpay.</p><p><br /></p><p>This is one possiblity, to explain high US Silver bullion premiums now. Here to stay? I'm not so sure.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Del Pinto, post: 2049284, member: 73128"]What market, the bullion market? Can you prove that? Re: culls. And maybe not be "fake" but also temporary? That's the caution. The market for whatever isn't always rational but proves so over time. If you have information to support high coin premiums for culls otherwise, please share. What's the average premium 3-, 5- 10- years back? And what's a reasonable forecast based on demographics, 5- 10-years forward? Unless a bullionist has long term data or some other coherent rationale to support the idea the current premium is "reasonable," then obviously overpaying for "numismatic-bullion" (or whatever commodity) is indeed "stupid." Buy low, sell high, right? We shouldn't defend (minimize, rationalize, etc.) others' bad investment choices either, however small. Culls may be attracting novice or quasi-bullionist attention (and some Doomer hoarding?) In that case, Chris' observation it's 'dumb money' is spot-on. This is a poor way to invest in Silver (or anything) he's right on that. However, I don't necessarily assume these impecunious cull buyers are primarily "bullionists", so it's really an apples-to-organges comparison. Suppose marginal demand is primarily a broad and deep segment of the coin collecting market (something like the State Quarter collectors, maturing) then something else is happening. Imagine people 35 or 40 years old who would have been spending more on "better" coins back in the 1990s are now substituting (or 'slumming') with what they can afford: two birds with one stone? Whether it's ammo or US Silver, hoarders overpay. This is one possiblity, to explain high US Silver bullion premiums now. Here to stay? I'm not so sure.[/QUOTE]
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