Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by Max Cado, Jul 20, 2014.
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I agree with this statement.
Although we want to have the ascetics of nice coin's I tend to buy what will be more liquid in my own Country. For me that is the AGE and I buy it in fractional denominations mostly.
I have by far more .25 oz and .10 oz coins than any other.
A long time ago a friend told me to always buy American..when I had to sell before what he said rang lound and true.
Just my 2cents worth..
The problem with the AACMs are the main reason behind the typical three back of spot offer on them:
1) They were unmarked as gold for the first two years of subscription (1980-1981).
2) They were 90% gold.
3) They literally made tons of them.
Some may argue against the third point, but much like current AGEs, the series was released at the peak of the gold cycle. Summer/Fall 1980 was the inflation indexed equivalent of Spring 2011 for gold prices. Much like how 2011-2014 annual gold sales dwarfed 2007 sales, the AACM series was a product released at a time of peak demand. As such, there wouldn't be much room for a collector's premium over time for the early issues. The 1984 issue holds some value today due to the price of gold dropping 50% from 1980-1984. I would assume that AGEs/CGMs issued from 2015-2027 will sell for significant premiums in 2040, since that would essentially mark a full 30-year cycle of the gold market.
As for the P$, we're safe for at least another 25 years. Peak oil was around 2004, and the advent of alternative energies mean we can expect a peak cycle of 50 years. People will start to panic around 40 years into the cycle. So, yeah... 25-30 years of Petrodollar stability.
Committees in Ukraine planning utilization, expansion, and facilities of the Kiev airport, based on traffic, graphs, and new aircraft specs/fuel needs, and the "cycles" they suggested -- all rendered totally useless in one day.
"Cycles" of economic activity, construction, infrastructure buildout, demand for cement and lumber in the Gaza strip -- all rendered useless in one day.
"Cycles" and predictions for Malaysian Airlines -- well, you get the idea.
Fifty years ago, the "cycle" theory might have had some credibility. You just missed ten "cycles" while I typed this post; read a bit about Chaos Theory.
Good information on the AACM's, I appreciate it. I disagree with your statement about peak oil in 2004 though. Did you know the US is soon going to be producing the most oil in our history, even though our traditional peak was in the 70's? Technology can literally destroy peak theories, and we are witnessing just that right now. I actually view it the other way. I believe our soon to be achieve energy independence will put pressure on the dollar as the reserve currency. With the US not buying any oil overseas, why should those transactions be denominated in dollars? Why not Euros or Yuan instead? Those will be the currencies OPEC will actually be receiving for their oil.
Energy independence may very little to do w/ the decline of the $dollar as a reserve currency. The dollar has been on the decline for years. China will be right there to take advantage of it.
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