Where will silver be going?

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by Derek2200, May 9, 2020.

  1. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    I am the same. I invest play money in PM, (like coins). I keep saying I would sell, yet even when 2011 happened I didn't. I think I am just a hoarder, and no doubt my wife and kids will have to deal with them when I am gone. Right now I am "promising" myself I will sell half if silver hits $50 or gold $2500, let's see if I am fibbing or not....
     
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  3. midas1

    midas1 Exalted Member

    ". . . Both of your distorted equities vs PM by picking either a low in equities or a high in PM. However, you did not also account for dividend reinvestment. . . "

    C'mon, cut it with the "distorted equities vs PM" thing.

    You are correct - I did neglect to include one of the most important tools for growth - dividend reinvestment.

    I pulled the 10year & 40year mark out of the air. It was chosen for no particular reason. If I wanted to manipulate the dates I would've chosen dates before the Meltdown. Either you believe in the markets or you don't. I've been investing for a very long time. Do I have a hedge? No, don't need it. I do have a hefty collection of numismatic gold, silver and currency. I'll probably sell most of to free up investment cash. I've been on a buying spree.

    Assuming we come up w/ effective C19 tx and a C19 vaccine we're looking at pretty terrific growth. OTOH, if the Federal Government keeps fumbling C19 & spending $trillions like drunken sailors on shore leave we going to be in deep doo doo.
    I figure we have five years before SS, Medicare & Debt payments begin to destabilize the Gov't. I hope to long gone by then.
    IMO, investing in equities is not for the unknowing or squeamish.
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2020
  4. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Your 10 year is taking equities near a low, your 40 year pm near a high. Both would have the tendency to overstate equity vs PM, but the flip side would be that you didn't count reinvested dividends minus a tax rate. Take 5, 15, 25, or 35 years and I would state those would be neutral valuations to fairly compare performance, that is all I was saying. I was assuming you took a couple of round numbers, I was not trying to pick on you sir, just educate everyone how timeframe can make or break your argument, and how readers should always critically evaluate what timeframe being used.

    I will drop it, and hope you did not think I was picking on your posts or anti-equity. All in, I am about 70% equity, the rest land, rentals, and a tiny amount of pm.
     
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  5. midas1

    midas1 Exalted Member

    I respect your credentials and hear your position. It's admirable that you're educating other users. Many years ago, I looked at the historical growth of PMs and the historical growth of the S&P. I was blown away. With your background, I assume most of your investments are in equities. I made some lucky decisions during my 20s. Taxes don't concern me much because 80%+ of my investments are held in a ROTH acct. I will be leaving my son uncomplicated ROTH investments. IMO, ROTH is pretty amazing.
    Both brokerage accts allow dividend reinvestment.

    I hope you enjoyed the discussion as much as I did.
    Wall St is a casino. I play craps, Black Jack & Wall St.
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2020
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  6. goldcollector

    goldcollector Member


    The S&P increase is well over 100%. From 1197 to 2855 that's like 130% gain. Gold has had an enormous gain as well while silver gets crushed yet again. Silver is a joke. Not a real investment at all. Just something for the guys at the trailer park to buy when they get their monthly government money so they can dream that they are gonna get rich. Then the weekend comes around and the food stamps are all gone so they go sell the silver at 70% of what they paid for it. Silver is a joke. Over a million new ounces were mined while I typed this.
     
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  7. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Silver will be weird for a while.

    What strong forces I see intersecting for silver:

    1. Cheap money - eventually could chase assets increasing all pm
    2. Low economic demand for metals - will limit mining production of copper and tin, and therefore lower byproduct silver
    3. However, same low economic demand will lower industrial disappearance of silver
    4. Cheap oil - if cheap enough to run mines, may still run and stockpile copper and tin, which would raise incidental silver production
    5. "hot" investment - if PM take off, hot money attracts hot money.

    Just a few of the contradicting things affecting silver. I have no idea how they will all pan out.
     
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  8. midas1

    midas1 Exalted Member

    -EDUCATIONAL-
    (Spending too much indoors - C19)

    After Discussing PM Prices w/ medoraman I Played Around W/ Some Numbers.

    https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data
    https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart
    https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart

    SILVER S&P
    Year Closing Price Year Closing Price
    2020 $15.78* 2020 2,929.80*
    2015 $13.80 2015 2,043.94
    2010 $30.63 2010 1,257.64
    2005 $8.83 2005 1,248.29
    2000 $4.58 2000 1,257.64
    1995 $5.14 1995 615.93
    1990 $4.19 1990 330.22
    1985 $5.80 1985 211.28
    1980 $15.50 1980 135,76
    * not yet closed
    Sorry, the columns will not stay aligned.
    GOLD
    Year Closing Price
    2020 $1,688.65
    2015 $1,060.20
    2010 $1,410.25
    2000 $272.65
    1995 $386.70
    1990 $391.00
    1985 $327.00
    1980 $589.50

    With Quality Stocks, In Most Cases, Buy and Hold & Dividend Reinvestment Appears to be the Correct Strategy

    I used round numbers to keep the calculations simple and easier to spot errors.
    When I get home I'll run the numbers again then check them against investments, if necessary.

    Let's assume the following:

    https://www.stocksplithistory.com/microsoft/
    Microsoft 1986 bought 50 shares @ $35/pps ($1750.00) after splits = 7200/shrs @ $186.xx/pps
    $1,339,200

    https://www.stocksplithistory.com/apple/
    Apple 1986 bought 50 shares @ $50/pps ($2500.00) after splits = 2800 shrs @ $315.xx/pps
    $882,000

    https://www.stocksplithistory.com/alphabet/
    Alphabet (GOOGL) 2014 bought 10 @ $924/pps ($9,240.00) after splits= 20 shrs @ $1409.xx/pps
    $28,180.00
    (Google went public @ $80/pps I thought it was way overpriced)

    Some more interesting numbers:
    Let's assume in 1/1/1985 a $1,000.00 investment in an S&P mutual fund (VFIAX) then add a $100.00/month I wonder how much that investment would be worth today? Or start dates of 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015.
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2020
  9. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Good info. Btw, am I "melodrama"?

    I would say 1985, 1990, 1995, 2005 are all good comps, and clearly shows your overall point that equities outperform PM, even without reinvested dividends.

    I am never a fan, though, of stories of winner stocks. For every Microsoft and Apple, there are tons of Compuserve, Netscape, and Gateway 2000 stocks that you could have JUST AS EASILY BOUGHT rather than the first two. All of these are worth zero today, while no pm has ever gone to zero. So, just different things. An ounce of gold will not make you a millionaire, but it will never go to zero either, and both types of investments, along with rental land, bonds, and others also have their purpose.
     
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  10. midas1

    midas1 Exalted Member

    "Just a few of the contradicting things affecting silver. I have no idea how they will all "pan out"."

    Nice Pun.
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2020
  11. midas1

    midas1 Exalted Member

    True PM will never go to zero neither will your land or rentals. Excellent points.
    When I bought those stocks I was working in IT. I knew what worked and what didn't. Apple, Cisco, Dell, Intel, Microsoft, et al. I still own a lot of 'em. I did buy some stinkers but they weren't tech stocks. I wasn't smart enough to buy land or rentals. I've never bought bonds in the investment accounts holding the above stocks. I do own an IRA w/ my previous employer that has some bonds in it. I would have done sooo much better had I invested all of it in the S&P index. A colleague, hired after me, invested all of his IRA in the S&P index, he smiles every time he checks his acct balance.

    Do you know how to calculate the S&P mutual fund investment at the bottom of my previous post? I don't.
     
  12. midas1

    midas1 Exalted Member

    This one is really from the past. Forgot about it.
    US Robotics (modems) went public around $7.xx/pps was bought by (I think) by 3COM or Qualcomm @ $69.xx/pps.
     
    Last edited: May 11, 2020
  13. midas1

    midas1 Exalted Member

    Whew! That's pretty cold. I suspect I lot of young collectors start w/ silver. I started with Whitman albums and silver coins.
     
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  14. Shrews1994

    Shrews1994 Collecting is my passion.

    Where would it be going? Right there in my collecting. When I see any silver thats where it's going.
     
  15. Pkfire

    Pkfire New Member

    I wonder if there's enough blood on the street. feel like there's more room, but no one knows. if it dips some more pick more up.
     
  16. midas1

    midas1 Exalted Member

    I'm beginning to rethink my recent investment decisions because of the resurgence of C19 and the delayed openings of LA, NY, and others that have pushed their reopening dates to August and later.
    Cities that have opened are seeing a resurgence in C19 infections. During the next 90 days, many small businesses are going to go bankrupt, including retailers, shopping malls, hospitals, universities, restaurants,et al.

    Tomorrow, I'm going to reevaluate my portfolio.

    I believe the economy is going to get a lot worse than it is. Until we develop effective C19 treatment than a vaccine. Just my two sense. It's worth what you paid for it.
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2020
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  17. Pkfire

    Pkfire New Member

    I interned at the hospital for about half a year, and generally more people die in the winter. I think it'll be the same with Covid. With summer rolling around, i'm actually optimistic about the virus. when the winter rolls around, i'm not so sure. I do think there will be a 2nd wave, but, will there be a treatment by then? in normal circumstances i think no, but labs are rushing to beat each other at this game. like bitcoin mining, whoever solves it gets the prize. That said. I'm not so sure what it'll look like in the summer for the market.
     
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  18. Pkfire

    Pkfire New Member

    There's just so much printing going on, yes the US is the world reserve, so that plays a big factor, but with so much "money" asset prices will go up, because it's just common sense. if everyone had 10 extra dollars, and they all wanted to buy the same thing, that asset will go up in price.
     
  19. Pkfire

    Pkfire New Member

    But there's also the businesses. it's looking bad for many small companies. I think Commercial RE will do really bad. This covid thing is changing the way business is being run. Big business is learning that they can function with less space, which means they will cut out the fat. Most companies will do trimming, because they are forced to, and they will have to adapt.

     
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  20. midas1

    midas1 Exalted Member

    I agree, The unemployment rate is 14% and it's going to get worse. Yeah, I'm selling a lot of stuff tomorrow.
     
  21. midas1

    midas1 Exalted Member

    Besides businesses and the Markets, we've got the dueling Banjo's in Washington. I believe it'll take the Markets years to return to what they were -

    'LA will never be completely open until we have a cure': Mayor Eric Garcetti sends terrifying warning to Angelinos one day after county extended lockdown by THREE MONTHS"

    Health Clubs, Gyms, Concert Venues, bars & night clubs, restaurants, Cirque du Soleil, theaters, Broadway, virtually all travel related businesses. It may be a very long time before cross border travel will be permitted w/o quarantine.

    The fumbling by the government has cost the country thousands of lives. We are two months into the Pandemic (should have "recognized" the pandemic at least three months ago) and we still don't have adequate PPEs. I see most people wearing blue surgical masks which are not N95 compliant. Disgraceful. . .
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2020
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