Where will silver be going?

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by Derek2200, May 9, 2020.

  1. Derek2200

    Derek2200 Active Member

    Currently silver $15.58.

    Buy, hold, or sell.
     
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  3. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Buy at or below that price if you can find it, then immediately sell it for more (because lots of people are paying more than that).

    Rinse, repeat.
     
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  4. furryfrog02

    furryfrog02 Well-Known Member

    If you can get physical silver at $15.58, good luck.
     
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  5. MeowtheKitty

    MeowtheKitty Well-Known Member

    Meow can only find silver bullion coins on fleabay for $25 or so. Meow does not like that inflated premium for them so will not buy any for now. But does want some 2020 dated bullion coins for the Cat Hoard. Just hoping for premiums to go back to more reasonable levels.
     
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  6. midas1

    midas1 Exalted Member

    Why are you buying? Collect or investment?
     
  7. Collecting Nut

    Collecting Nut Borderline Hoarder

    But at spot and hold it. It will be going up in the future.
     
  8. midas1

    midas1 Exalted Member

    IMO, long term you're are better off investing in an S&P mutual fund or ETF.
    I own the Vanguard S&P Index mutual fund VFIAX

    Price Performance April 2010 - April 2020
    S&P Index outperformed silver by appx 76%
    The numbers may not be exactly correct but they're close.
    After figuring out the numbers I thought of a simpler way to calculate them. Hindsight is usually very accurate.

    Silver
    Ten Year Price decrease appx 18%
    April 2010 = 18.71.xx
    April 2020 = 14.97.xx

    S&P
    Ten Year Price increase appx 58%
    April, 2010 = 1197.xx
    April, 2020 = 2855.xx
     
    Last edited: May 9, 2020
  9. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Yeah, but be careful on periods you compare. I would imagine 15 year or 30 year performance may not be the same. I say that simply because April 2010 was still low coming off 2009. Any stock return vs that will look good.

    Any stock return number starting in 1973, 1975, 2000, 2001, 2008-2010, or 2020 be suspect of. Same as PM in 1970, 1980, 1996, 2011. I am sure you weren't meaning to sir, just speaking generally to be leery of those dates, and ask yourself why the author chose that time period. I like to make comparisons between period when neither item were going into or out of major corrections.
     
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  10. midas1

    midas1 Exalted Member

    Silver April 30, 1980 $13.83
    Silver April 30, 2020 $15.49 (may 6,2020)
    Not going to take the time to find 4/30/20
    w/o calculating it appears Silver increased about 6%
    I'm not gonna calculate by how many multiples the S&P has increased.

    S&P 500
    1980 close 135.86
    4-29-2020 2,939.51

    Appears to me S&P did a little bit better than Silver.
    What do you think?
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2020
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  11. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Not disagreeing with your premise, just trying to point out the dates are as, if not important, than the numbers. Always challenge the dates when looking at financial returns. Your 1980 price is 15 times what it was just a few years earlier, and 4 times the price 15 years later.
     
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  12. midas1

    midas1 Exalted Member

    I give up! I post 10year spread then 40year spread.
    Successful Investors are forward looking.

    You'll never be a successful equities investor. Keep stacking that silver.
    When you retire SS will probably have limited benefits.
     
  13. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter

    The current premiums on physical gold and silver are certainly discouraging, if not idiotic.
     
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  14. furryfrog02

    furryfrog02 Well-Known Member

    I'm glad I bought most of my 2020 silver before the dip. I know that sounds weird, but at least the premium was lower.
     
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  15. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter

    I’m buying gold now — a gold ETF that is.
     
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  16. desertgem

    desertgem MODERATOR Senior Errer Collecktor Moderator

    Brave people, seriously! Unless you are a relative of an important insider person, or can talk to angels and they answer, I would hold cash. I do not think there are any safe investments on this roller coaster for quite a while, and you do not want to HAVE to sell your bullion for supplies or living expenses. IMO, Jim

    ps. I do think Santinidollar has the best approach as you can play with a fraction being risked.
     
  17. furryfrog02

    furryfrog02 Well-Known Member

    Something about electronic PMs rubs me the wrong way lol.
     
  18. desertgem

    desertgem MODERATOR Senior Errer Collecktor Moderator

    I understand that, and I think it has a lot to do with the intentions. I buy quite a bit physical that are design worthy, but with really no intention of selling it even if it goes up 20% If I want to bet on the trend for monetary returns, I use ETFs also~ I can buy in a couple of seconds or sell in a couple of seconds based on the price. No arguing with a bullion store or dealing with varying premiums. But, there is a learning curve. The tools someone like TDAmeritrade offers really help out, Jim
     
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  19. midas1

    midas1 Exalted Member

    I agree, kinda.
    I made the mistake of selling some equities during the Internet bust. At the time I was working in IT. I had bought Microsoft at $35/ps & $29/ps, Apple @$50/ps, Cisco, Dell, Intel and later AMD @ $3.79/ps. Plus a lot of others. (My online brokerage acct only goes back to 2013)
    I currently own Apple, AMD, Alphabet, Amazon, Applied Material, Facebook, Euronet Worldwide, General Motors (why GM?)Home Depot, Microsoft & VFIAX. A couple spec stocks -Avita Medical & Digital Turbine. Avita Medical is a sure winner but unfortunately, it'll be bought out before it can run up t nose bleed prices.
    Fast forward to now - I have no cash in my accts. I've bought quality stocks that'll be here after the pandemic is over. The stock splits for Apple & Microsoft alone are pretty amazing. I am considering selling some winners to buy some new lower priced winners, My portfolio has weathered lot's of dramatic swings in the market. To quote Uncle Warren - "Buy when there's blood in the streets." His philosophy has never let me down.
    What concerns me are payments for Medicare, Social Security interest payments on the National Debt, they are going to kill our economy. The monopolistic business practices of amazon Alphabet & Microsoft are killing small businesses. IMO, they should be broken up. A benefit will be the business winners they'll spin off.

    Silver April 30, 1980 $13.83
    Silver April 30, 2020 $15.49 (may 6,2020)
    Not going to take the time to find 4/30/20

    S&P 500
    1980 close 135.86
    4-29-2020 2,939.51
    Appears to me S&P did a little bit better than Silver.
    What do you think?
     
    Last edited: May 10, 2020
  20. furryfrog02

    furryfrog02 Well-Known Member

    Yeah. I guess where I am is more of buying for the collection and design. I wouldn't sell unless we were on the brink of becoming destitute. I will let my kids sort it out when I'm dead :p
     
  21. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    Um, I think you have the wrong person to spew this rant about. I was a Big 10 MBA adjunct Finance professor sir. I was pointing out dangers of timeframes used, and a 10 year or 40 year between equities and PM each had a troubling aspect of it. That was my point. I would choose a timeframe where the markets were fairly even. Both of your distorted equities vs PM by picking either a low in equities or a high in PM. However, you did not also account for dividend reinvestment.

    I said I did not disagree with you, but was trying to educate everyone on the importance of dates chosen, and to always be skeptical why they were chosen. Sometimes it is coincidence and round numbers likes yours, other times it is on purpose. PM sellers have been playing this game forever, choosing a equity price right before a big correction, and ending the comparison in the middle of another correction, like starting it in March of 2008 and ending it March 2020.
     
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