Where is silver going?

I think we will blast off easily above $49 a lot sooner than most think. By then, all of the insiders will be well-positioned. I especially think there will be enormous short-covering and buy orders at or around that level. Because it is uncharted territory, and because the gold-to-silver ratio has grown so big, the triple digits would be within sight.

 

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Not when you measure it vs. GDP which is the only way to view debt in a way that makes sense.

 

...rise to over $22 That's my guess.

 

I had a little different take on that post when I first saw it. I agree that if he's so certain he's got it nailed, then he shouldn't just give it away. But if his analysis or insight has value, he shouldn't be witholding it, either. He ought to be selling it. That'd be capitalizing on it. And let the marketplace be the arbiter of its worth.

 

youre right. and i think we would both agree sales of his book would be....how do i say this...not good

 

"Those who can....do! Those who can't....teach!"

Chris

 

I was thinking more along the lines of an online (by paid subscription) bullion investing newsletter. Publish his forecast. Lay out his case. Include the usual disclaimers to protect himself. Because if he gets the move and timing right, gets proved to be a guru, he'll eventually have more subscribers than he could imagine, and potentially be making a whole bunch of money with virtually (pun intended) no cash out of pocket.

 

I think the long term outlook is very bearish for silver and gold. And if history tells us anything the bear run will be a long one. The recent rise in price is considered significantly weak and shallow considering the loses over the last few years. But there's nothing wrong with stacking a little since nobody really knows anything but what history leaves in the rear view mirror. Personally, I'm keeping focused on the numismatic side of things these days.

 

Hmmm, the current set of guru's have been consistently wrong about everything and not only do they have plenty of subscribers, but their followers also defend them like they are God-like. It seems to me you don't need to know jack, as long as your mantra is buy silver any day, every day. Its a funny World

 

That scenario would probably play out worse for gold, since the gold to silver price ratio remains seriously out of whack (inflated) as compared with with the historically stable relationship between them. A long time coin shop owner in my area agrees with you that at best the doldrums will be the new normal based on his recollections of market conditions following previous precious metal price spikes. But as I said in a prior post, I'm more confounded than confident in trying to read the tea leaves right now.

 

I hope they go into my stack.

 

Exactly. So many people misunderstand this.

 

You're right, and when our debt is compared to GDP you can see just how significant the rise has been since 2000 (DOUBLE), and it will rise much more over the next decade.



Public Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Federal_Debt_Held_by_the_Public_1790-2013.png

 

$24.00 this time.

 

The predicted part of your graph shows that debt will be flat or even slightly lower over the next decade (out to 2024) which would be as expected since we are in an improving ecomonic cycle. This is not consistent with your position that debt will rise "much much more" in the next decade.

 

The difference between the debt in WWII and the debt now is that growth was spectacular after the war, largely due to a rising birth rate. Now we have an aging population -- we are in the same trajectory as Japan. Furthermore, if the economy really is improving fundamentally, why is there a need to monetize the debt?

 

The Japanese currently have TWICE the debt that we have. With debt projected to be flat the next decade, how many years do you feel it will take to get in the same position as Japan?

 

Japan has basically been in a depression for about two decades. The difference between us and Japan is that Japan has had more savers who bought Japanese bonds -- this is organic buying. Japan invented QE to fight deflation, though the aging demographics has made it a very difficult undertaking. Japan reached its demographic crisis earlier than us. Without QE, our trend is ineluctably deflationary like Japan's, except, lacking any organic buying of Treasuries, a dollar collapse is more probable. The idea that an economy can thrive and prosper with an aging population such as in Japan or the U.S. is pretty much ludicrous in my eyes. The future of our country lies not in the coin collector demographic that believes all is fine and dandy due to inflated equities and houses, but in its almost non-existent grandchildren and great-grandchildren (statistically-speaking).

 

Perhaps events are overtaking this poll. As of 11:30 EST, silver's jumped up to $21.26 and could be making a run at that $22 mark.

 

And this has occurred with supposedly very low inflation and a recovering economy. It seems the precious metals markets are signaling something about the greater economy. Peter Schiff appears to be right that the taper has been fully priced in.