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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Juan Blanco, post: 1606665, member: 41665&quot;]Silver&#039;s not a &quot;falling knife&quot; on a $2 nor a $10 decline; that term means a &quot;severe drop in share price&quot; and pertains to classical equity investments. please don&#039;t conflate risk profiles of very different asset classes. </p><p><br /></p><p>For perspective, there were ONLY 3 or 4 companies in the S&amp;P500 that fell ~-50% in 2012; it&#039;s <i>an extraordinary event</i> for blue-chip investments. <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fallingknife.asp" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fallingknife.asp" rel="nofollow">http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fallingknife.asp</a></p><p><br /></p><p>True, penny stocks fall -50% more often but historically there&#039;s little correlation between those securites and PMs. And don&#039;t imagine retail noobs can flip Silver profitably: you&#039;ll have even less success there. Instead -- and more importantly, <i>correctly understanding the risk </i>-- see how Silver has <u>already</u> fallen -50% at least twice in this PM Bull Market: </p><p><a href="http://www.cointalk.com/t219228/#post1597339" class="internalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://www.cointalk.com/t219228/#post1597339">http://www.cointalk.com/t219228/#post1597339</a></p><p><br /></p><p>It will happen again. And again.<b> Every buyer/holder should know such -50% retracements are <i>the &#039;normal-bad&#039; </i>for this &quot;investment&quot; and no cause for panic. </b>If it&#039;s still unclear, a &quot;severe drop&quot; in Silver is ~ -20% in a day! That didn&#039;t herald a collapse either - just a pause in the PM Bull. Look for a -40% decline to &#039;Ring-the-Bell&#039;: </p><p><a href="http://www.cointalk.com/t220014/" class="internalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://www.cointalk.com/t220014/">http://www.cointalk.com/t220014/</a></p><p><br /></p><p>I believe we&#039;ll see more such &#039;acceptable&#039; declines (yes: repeatedly!) perhaps in 2013 or by 2014. Bad news for you? No. Informed hoarders both understand and accept that level of Risk, persevere anyway. And big retracements will be proven prudent buying opportunities for patient investors, another chance to get in or add abit more. Be brave, at last!</p><p><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903703604576589210888153064.html" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903703604576589210888153064.html" rel="nofollow">http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903703604576589210888153064.html</a></p><p><br /></p><p>The extraordinary scenario where &#039;Silver becomes a falling knife&#039; must be some intervention to drive down the price &gt; -65% in a few weeks and &#039;for good.&#039; In prior events, there&#039;s <i>always </i>been an announcement of govt/regulators meddling in the free markets or against a combination/cornered mkt. See for example: <a href="http://www.cointalk.com/t218616/#post1591361" class="internalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://www.cointalk.com/t218616/#post1591361">http://www.cointalk.com/t218616/#post1591361</a></p><p><br /></p><p>By contrast and otherwise, <b>POS at $27 or below (even as low as $16) is a sweet opportunity, <u>not</u> a catastrophe.</b> The sensible allocator understands why Dollar-cost averaging into a 1-, 2-year decline in POS is wise risk, not worrisome folly.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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