Where is Silver going?

They are trying

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=lode&ql=1

 

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Silver is going to the moon of course, but on the way there it will make a few pit stops. I don't see it getting below $28 again without major market turbulence, and I don't see major market turbulence happening until the system is ready to yield to free market forces. If that happens the whole fiat experiment goes into question, so I don't put much stock in what prices might be in that scenario. Otherwise if all is peachy we should see moderate gains each year under indefinite QE. Based on my calculations the silver supply will run out in about a year and a half if the price doesn't rise to bring more to market (300 MOz on the COMEX, 200 MOz yearly mining shortfall per overall demand).

 

I will take a pessimistic view of the global market. I figure congress will raise the debt ceiling at least twice this year. The first time if they raise it 1 trillion, the price of silver will spike $2 in one day. The second time, it will spike at least double what it did the first time. The second time the debt ceiling is raised will be in November, which will give the market time to cool down, but it will close at $39 an ouce at the end of next year.

Disclaimer: If any of these things happen, I will be amazed as a Squirrel looking at a ten pound acorn.

 

X

 

2013? I'm not bullish, sorry.

There's been no resolution ("real deal") to the Fiscal Cliff - they only delayed (POSTPONED) facing the music a few more weeks. They don't even have an agreement to agree to agree to discuss it LOL Please: let's get real here. Extend-and-Pretend will NOT work forever, folks.

And the debt-ceiling debate is ANOTHER matter for next month. This is setting-up to be a Double-Whammy in February. Did everyone already forget how the S&P500 quickly & dramatically lost -6% in 2011:
http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/29/markets/markets_newyork/index.htm

Back then, POG Gold see-sawed abit, but basically moved up ~$200 between 7/7-8/8/2011. I'm not at all convinced institutional portfolios will reallocate the same way in a bigger crisis however. (If Paper Gold might gets whacked in a major liquidation phase.) Can we just keep whistling past the graveyard? Forever and ever, no consequences, the Paper Fantasy, Intact for Eternity? okaaaaay... "Buy Stocks, Sell Your Gold, Drink the Fed-Treasury-Wall Street Kool-Aid kiddies!"
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/50334536/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/

Based on some recent stories in FT, ALSO suppose the US bond bubble may be popping and deflation is returning (with rapid decelerating capital investments by key US firms.) Each of those different issues will be huge, related but separate: all bad news, I'm afraid. And NONE of this is priced in THIS mkt. The hangover should be brutal, no? Hair-of-the-dog is the only remedy we've got now... PRINT MORE MONEY, SAVE OUR MARKETS! (Bernuckles or Little Timmy will comply, I believe.)
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/stocks-skyrocket-after-fiscal-cliff-compromise-1C7755880

Throw in an exogenous event or two, and everything could careen outta countrol or get very weird quickly. Look for huge correlated volatility in eqty and PM mkts, without something coherent established soon. That's my admittedly bearish two cents.

 

Apparently most of the silver is going to upstate NY... or trying to find its way back home underground??

This line at the end of the article caught my eye in particular... Get your physical while you can !

"We hope rescue workers were able to recover every last bar, as we are talking $1 billion in rehypothecated paper silver at risk."

http://www.silverdoctors.com/truck-carrying-10-million-in-silver-bars-crashes-in-upstate-ny/

 

Long term versus a nominal dollar, (or Euro, or yen, or Renmimbi, or Peso)? Yes, of course mathematically it will. You cannot have ANY commodity priced in a nominal currency that will not "go to the moon".

Issues are, when and will it be worth more than similar amounts of money invested prudently? That makes it a VERY different question, one not so easy to answer.

Absent a crystal ball, I would guess trading in a $25-35 range next year, maybe testing the lower limits of that range. If it does I will probably pick up a couple hundred ounces in misc world coins. Yes Inflexion, I DO like silver a lot, just have been avoiding it in the $30's for now.

 

I've been hoping to buy in the sub-$30 in the next couple weeks. Today was a big bounce up but I don't see the market euphoria lasting. I see silver back under $30 up until the middle to end of Feb. We'll then see a steady but slow rise through the spring. Silver will top out in late May/early June at around $36. We'll the have a decline during the summer months back to the low $30's and maybe even below into the $28-29 range. After that we head north and finish 2013 at $40.

I am absolutely certain in my projections but according to my wife I am frequently wrong also. I am marking his prediction so I can check back on it periodically.

 

Nothing is going to da moon, because we are in a deflationary depression, but I expect silver to at least hold most of its value. I bought a Peace dollar for $27, which I consider to be a reasonable price, since its worth $24 in silver alone. I got it at the local antique shop which has a one day sale on Jan 1st. I think the price of silver will hang around where it is now for a while. If it goes down to around $20 I am doing some buying, but until then I'm spending on my other favorite precious metal, cast iron, in the form of Griswold and Wagner.

 

Sounds like you plan on frying yourself a BIG batch of taters. Make sure you add the bacon grease.

Now I am hungry.....

 

Fry thin-sliced hard salami at high heat for a short time; remove excess grease with a paper towel. Tastes very much like bacon (and leaner, of course) at about half the cost.

 

Silver is going to keep going up and down. I'm going to try to buy below $30. I'd expect it to get near 40 at some point in the year, but then come back down a little.

Why should it rise? Well, some countries are pouring more money into solar panels. http://www.dw.de/solar-energy-on-the-rise-in-germany/a-16490941

 

We have got a smack down happening. Down about 2 bucks from a couple of days ago. I picked this time to buy, but it's never good to catch a falling knife. I hope it doesn't keep going down, but who knows?

Here's why silver is slipping. The dollar is stronger:

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-01-04/us-dollar-driven-higher

 

Silver's not a "falling knife" on a $2 nor a $10 decline; that term means a "severe drop in share price" and pertains to classical equity investments. please don't conflate risk profiles of very different asset classes.

For perspective, there were ONLY 3 or 4 companies in the S&P500 that fell ~-50% in 2012; it's an extraordinary event for blue-chip investments. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fallingknife.asp

True, penny stocks fall -50% more often but historically there's little correlation between those securites and PMs. And don't imagine retail noobs can flip Silver profitably: you'll have even less success there. Instead -- and more importantly, correctly understanding the risk -- see how Silver has already fallen -50% at least twice in this PM Bull Market:
http://www.cointalk.com/t219228/#post1597339

It will happen again. And again. Every buyer/holder should know such -50% retracements are the 'normal-bad' for this "investment" and no cause for panic. If it's still unclear, a "severe drop" in Silver is ~ -20% in a day! That didn't herald a collapse either - just a pause in the PM Bull. Look for a -40% decline to 'Ring-the-Bell':
http://www.cointalk.com/t220014/

I believe we'll see more such 'acceptable' declines (yes: repeatedly!) perhaps in 2013 or by 2014. Bad news for you? No. Informed hoarders both understand and accept that level of Risk, persevere anyway. And big retracements will be proven prudent buying opportunities for patient investors, another chance to get in or add abit more. Be brave, at last!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903703604576589210888153064.html

The extraordinary scenario where 'Silver becomes a falling knife' must be some intervention to drive down the price > -65% in a few weeks and 'for good.' In prior events, there's always been an announcement of govt/regulators meddling in the free markets or against a combination/cornered mkt. See for example: http://www.cointalk.com/t218616/#post1591361

By contrast and otherwise, POS at $27 or below (even as low as $16) is a sweet opportunity, not a catastrophe. The sensible allocator understands why Dollar-cost averaging into a 1-, 2-year decline in POS is wise risk, not worrisome folly.

 

Thanks for the lecture Juan. I have been buying silver since 2001, and have experienced a few ups and downs lately. I like to buy on the dips, but it seemed like under $30 could have been a dip. I might be wrong. That's why I quit telling other people about silver, because I am never sure if it is going to go down. Usually whenever I tell anyone about it the price crashes.

 

I was going through my safe and found this chart...

 

anytime you can turn paper into metal it's a good thing, providing you're already out of all debt.

 

In the present financial environment, debt is GOOD for some people; the debt will be paid off in ever-cheaper dollars.

And, many types of interest rates are the lowest in a generation.

 

as long as China keeps eating up most of the silver. price will go up steadly

 

my house & china