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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;-jeffB, post: 1986510, member: 27832&quot;]It seems like it should be, but.</p><p><br /></p><p>I think most stackers (as opposed to &quot;collectors&quot;) aren&#039;t just accumulating PM because they enjoy owning it, or looking at it, or consuming it. They&#039;re buying it as what I consider speculation -- the notion that, at some point, the PM will be worth more than the &quot;future value&quot; of the fiat they&#039;re spending on it. They might think of that future value as constant dollars, or post-hyperinflation BTUs, or crashed equities -- but there&#039;s still some notion that PM in the future will be worth more than whatever you&#039;re spending to get it today. Otherwise, the sensible choice would be to buy the PM in the future.</p><p><br /></p><p>Of course, there&#039;s an element of gambling. PMs might soar or tank; the dollar might &quot;go to zero&quot; in my lifetime, or it might not.</p><p><br /></p><p>But when PMs are dropping, there&#039;s a natural suspicion that <b>they&#039;ll drop further, and be cheaper later</b>. When they&#039;re rising, there&#039;s a natural suspicion that they&#039;ll rise further, and be more expensive later.</p><p><br /></p><p>A family member once told me that the key to investing is to buy things that are going up, and sell things that are going down. That&#039;s wrong. The key is to buy things that <i>will go</i> up, and sell things that <i>will go</i> down. The problem is, the only thing you can <b>know</b> is what <i>has gone</i> up or down, so you end up buying things that <i>have gone</i> up and selling things that <i>have gone</i> down. That&#039;s sort of the opposite of what you actually want.</p><p><br /></p><p>So, what to do about PMs? If I knew, I might be bragging about it here, but I&#039;d certainly be spending more time actually doing it. There <i>are</i> ways to get insight into what will happen in the future, and to protect yourself more effectively, but they require more time and expertise than I can afford to spend or acquire. That&#039;s why I pay other people a substantial yearly sum to manage what constitutes &quot;big money&quot; for me; they have a good track record of doing a better job at it than I do, and I end up with more money even after expenses.</p><p><br /></p><p>I do have my own ideas about how things will go in the future. I just don&#039;t trust them enough to put big money behind them.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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