What's going on with palladium?

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by Brett_in_Sacto, Jan 4, 2019.

  1. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    Let me brake old the "Gold AMEX, and lets go to work...LOL
     
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  3. Jaelus

    Jaelus Hungarian Collector Supporter

    No, they made copper nanostructures that behaved like gold when used as a catalyst.

    It's an expensive process with limited application. Extremely unlikely to affect the price of gold.
     
  4. chascat

    chascat Well-Known Member

    Just sold my 1987 Bermuda 1oz palladium proof for $100 below spot...$1208.00...a tidy profit on the thing!
     
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  5. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Um?

    silversupplydemand.png
    Looks to me like silver demand for coins and bars is less than 15% of total physical demand, and that it may well be falling off in response to declining prices, rather than the other way around.

    And as for palladium? 30,000 1-ounce APEs minted (half proof, half bullion), against global production of six million ounces. That's a mighty tiny tail to wag all that dog, isn't it?
     
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  6. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"


    I think its a wake up call, for investors that have never even heard of
    Palladium or thought to invest in it, even though the coin production is
    Low compared to actual production of the metal, minting of APE,S has
    Sure brought it to the for front, and having more options to invest
    In it.
     
  7. V. Kurt Bellman

    V. Kurt Bellman Yes, I'm blunt! Get over your "feeeeelings".

    My point is that were it not for coinage demand, silver would be in PERPETUAL demand decline and surplus supply. AND the source of that chart, the Silver Institute, is THE most virulent "pumper upper" of silver demand stories.
     
  8. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Looking at the fluctuations in other forms of demand, I'm not seeing it. It would go up, manufacturers would move to alternatives, it would go down, manufacturers would move back to it (because it's once again cost-effective), lather, rinse, repeat. The big hit, from loss of the photography market, was probably mostly done before the start of the period in the chart.

    The facts represented in the chart seem consistent with what I've seen elsewhere, although I admit I haven't gone out and audited manufacturer's records myself. I do consider the source, but let's not rely too heavily on ad hominem here.
     
  9. Clawcoins

    Clawcoins Well-Known Member

    I think they need Palladium for Electric Car production - batteries and stuff.
     
  10. V. Kurt Bellman

    V. Kurt Bellman Yes, I'm blunt! Get over your "feeeeelings".

    Palladium used to be the "cheaper substitute" for platinum in many industrial uses. Oopsies!
     
  11. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Yuuup. I don't remember many details about applications where one is much better than the other. My impression is that they're more or less even for catalytic converters, but you can't just switch back and forth depending on which is cheaper. It'll be a while before internal-combustion engines and their converters go away, more's the pity.

    Platinum is way superior for labware, and the current market is a boon for lab managers. Still way too pricey for me to get any for myself, though, more's the pity. The darn stuff is so dense that any vessel thicker than tinfoil is going to be heavy, and therefore expensive, period.
     
  12. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    The cheaper...LOL
     
  13. GoldFinger1969

    GoldFinger1969 Well-Known Member

    NO, electric cars don't use palladium OR platinum.

    Palladium and platinum keep impacting the other's price because of their usage in catalytic converters for regular and diesel gasoline engines.
     
  14. Clawcoins

    Clawcoins Well-Known Member

    oh yeah. Platinum/Palladium demand is expected to reduce by 53% due to electric cars within the next several years. ouch. Supposedly about 80% Palladium and 40% Platinum design is due to automotive demand. They are hesitant on retooling costs to switch from palladium back/forth to Platinum so these spikes happen until it gets too high.
     
  15. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    How high is to high, i wonder because the difference is growing palladium
    at $1327.56 Platinum $806.85
     
  16. Clawcoins

    Clawcoins Well-Known Member

    It's not only the cost, but the time needed to make the switch
    https://www.autonews.com/article/20...tch-to-platinum-even-as-palladium-price-soars

    the last switch was around 2000-2002 when they reduced palladium by about 50% and increase platinum about 40%. I'm not sure if there's a 1:1 correlation in manufacturing requirements for each metal. So if there isn't a 1:1 then that would affect the per vehicle price too in relation to a switch over .. which takes up to 2 years. It's not a .. "let's just start using the other metal".

    that above article also states that palladium is preferred mainly for gasoline engines and platinum for diesel; versus them being "interchangeable" metals. I didn't know there was a preference for the metal's reaction. So that make me think quantity and design capture has a lot to do with it to. And since engine technology has evolved in the last 16 years .. that means they'd have to redesign the catalytic converter from scratch thus the up to 2 years.
     
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  17. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    Thats mind blowing ! you would think that just staying with the more plentiful
    Source would keep this problem in check ?
     
  18. Clawcoins

    Clawcoins Well-Known Member

    well it goes back to that it seems the specific metal used, is thus designed in it's chamber a specific way for each particular engine. And the design is based on the particular metal due to it's reaction to it's particular usage (I assume). Thus just changing the particular metal isn't enough as it apparently needs a complete design change.

    Go figure ...
     
  19. mpcusa

    mpcusa "Official C.T. TROLL SWEEPER"

    well i know, that gas engines are way different from Diesel so probably
    a completely different combination used.
     
  20. Brett_in_Sacto

    Brett_in_Sacto Well-Known Member

    Can you post a link to said report?
     
  21. Brett_in_Sacto

    Brett_in_Sacto Well-Known Member

    DING DING DING!

    This just rang a bell.

    The "new" clean diesel technology requires a "DPF" or Diesel Particulate Filter on every diesel made in addition to the catalyst. It's in addition to the catalytic converter already on the car.

    This is a HUGE demand for materials.

    The process works by dumping the exhaust through the DPF - and it collects any soot that diesels are known for at low speeds. At highway speeds, the computer dumps additional diesel fuel and urea into the DPF to catalyze it and burn it off.


    (Yeah, we have a special "blue" tank on our diesel car we fill with urea (pee ;)) every 5000 miles, and it's mixed with fuel that isn't used to run the engine - but dumped onto the soot in a travelling "burn barrel" because this is somehow environmentally friendly?) :jawdrop:

    Sounded good on paper I guess.

    California I know just mandated these in the few years - and in fact, also mandated that all commercial trucks be retro-fitted (at the cost of billions to the businesses - who of course passed it on in higher prices to the consumers).

    My last diesel (Jetta TDI - a dieselgate victim) had a failure of the DPF and it was replaced under federal emissions warranty. It's an $1800 part and required as part of the EGR system.

    (side story / rant)
    Also my wife's 328d bimmer now has one of these things, and it's in the shop for emissions warranty work - due to a complete backup and failure of the DPF/EGR system. It's a bunch of convoluted junk to solve a theoretical problem that society doesn't have. Similar to the efficiency of smog pumps in the early 80s. Slight reduction in emissions, huge reduction in performance that offsets any gains. (Anyone remember MTBE?)
    (end side story / rant)

    So I can see a huge demand in the materials required to build these.

    https://www.ttnews.com/articles/dpf-retrofits-growing-due-california-rule

    ---California’s Air Resources Board estimates that the number of trucks in the state that need aftermarket DPFs will triple, from more than 35,000 in 2013 to 105,000 in 2015, plus about 10,000 trucks in neighboring states that will have to have retrofits.

    ---Growth in retrofitting isn’t limited to California. Demand for the process is expected to grow as jurisdictions across the country seek to cut the amount of particulate matter, or soot, from diesel exhaust by mandating DPFs.
     
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