what were U oldtimers paying when silver was 4-$9/oz?

Probably not. The housing market involved significant levels of debt obtained by unworthy borrowers. Gold and silver will definitely drop in price, but I'm expecting it to happen from much higher levels. It makes me happy to see that there are so many doubters out there. In the mid-90s, Alan Greenspan gave his famous "irrational exhuberance" speech years before the market tanked. Bull markets frequently run farther and longer than anybody anticipates ahead of time.

I'm not an investment advisor, so please don't take this as advice. It's just my expectation.

 

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You are correct that timing is the key, and nobody has a monopoly on that knowledge. We all make our own decisions. The precious metals just don't have the characteristics of a top yet [in my opinion]. I'm starting to see a few investment professionals finally admit that people should hold 5% or so of their portfolios in gold, but it's still a hard sell for the general public to accept it. When gold [and silver] prices collapse for real, I expect it to be a spectacular fall after a spectacular rise, not just a boring fizzle from a flat base around $1200. Time will tell.

 

When it comes to investing in anything, my favorite story is from Warren Buffett. He says to think of the market as a funny little man, with a bowler cap, named Mr. Market. Now every day Mr. Market will give you a price. Some days Mr. Market is gloomy, and everything is low. Other days, Mr. Market is happy and everything is expensive. Feel free to take advantage of Mr. Market, buying from him when he is gloomy, selling when he is happy, but don't EVER try to guess what mood he will be in tomorrow.

Point is, buy at a price you believe is a good value, sell at a price you believe is too high, and don't try to ride trends. Works for me.

 

This fact, and the fact that many financial commentators are talking about gold and silver, are the most bearish things in the world. Exact same thing always happens. When the press finally gets around to talking about investment areas, that is usually shortly before the correction. Smart money is made out of the limelight. When everyone knows about it, that is when it is already overpriced. It is usually small investors that lose money, since they only react to "investment advice" in the media, where smart investors research undervalued opportunities before they become known, then sell their positions to the small investors.

 

I still see more negative comments about gold in the business press than positive comments. There is no doubt that the brilliant money was in gold years ago. The smart money is still buying. When CNBC starts a metals investing program, Merrill Lynch reopens their commodity trading desk for individual clients, the evening news covers the lines outside of coin shops of people trying to buy gold, and someone figures out a way for the average individual to buy gold "with no money down," that will be the end.

However, I don't want to overstate this. I don't think anybody should have a large percentage of investment assets in gold at $1200. It's too late for that. It's just that gold looks better right now than most stocks and bonds in light of the probability that we will soon be at war with Iran and the path of least resistance for the dollar and bonds seems to be down for the next couple of years.

 

Fair enough man. I agree its not near the tipping point yet, I personally am just hearing more about metals, and "gold in IRA" and different gold holding schemes. The louder they get in the future, the more bearish I will become. When they get to a certain point I am dumping every ounce I can spare. Been there, done that.

 

I agree.

 

Lately, I have seen tons of commercials and signs for "Buying Metals!", but (other than painted coins and HSN ) not much for selling metals.

You old timers remember the last time things "blewup", was there alot of advertising for selling or buying? (both?)

 

Tons of advertising buying. You had all of the "roadshows" going around screwing over little guys buying up metals cheap. You had people coming up with "new" ways to invest in gold and silver like leaving it with them and not taking delivery. Premiums skyrocketed for physical bullion. Financial commentators started suggesting you have a portion of your portfolio in metals.

Anything sounding a little familiar?

Dang, "old timers" again?

 

I think the downfall has occured and is going very rapidly. I take credit cards for bullion only recently and my god has business increased 5x fold. I have people maxing out their Credit cards to purchase gold and silver.
End is near, word to the wise it's about to blow, I even got insurance to cover my losses when it does, and most companies would not do it. I got very lucky on that.

 

I love the negativity. Bull markets climb a wall of worry.

 

I am with you Cloud. I invested in stocks 2 years ago at the low, and personally love more negative talk.

Even housing, I am considering buying another house on a lake right now due to everyone so down on housing.

Everything comes back around. Reversion to the mean is an undeniable force. Real money is made when either people aren't talking about something, or they are saying bad things about it. I might even sell out my silver holdings to finance real estate.

 

Real estate is probably a good buy now, but to be consistent with your statements in another thread about inflation being more likey, I would think you would want to hang onto your silver and finance the new house with debt.

 

True enough, but all assets are inflation hedges. It will depend how how much cash I need to put into it up front and what cash I have available right now. Either way it will be financed.

Kinda sucks, it will mean less cash for coin and book purchases.