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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Rono, post: 2378239, member: 6492&quot;]Howdy,</p><p><br /></p><p>The data doesn&#039;t lie.&nbsp; You can go back to before the Great Depression and run the numbers and stocks have outperformed all other asset class including precious metals.&nbsp; For long term investors this is crucial to understand.&nbsp; However, as Lord Keynes said, &#039;in the long run we&#039;ll all be dead&#039;.&nbsp; Not all investing is for the long run.&nbsp; My long run may not be yours.&nbsp; Our goals and objectives my differ, etc.</p><p><br /></p><p>In the short run, things diverge.&nbsp; At any one time, different sectors, segments, regions, countries and even asset classes outshine one another.&nbsp; Some get hot while others go into the tank.&nbsp; A lot of these trends can last for several years.&nbsp;&nbsp; Witness the last precious metals bull market lasting from ~2002 to 2011. </p><p><br /></p><p>While my basic portfolio is pretty conservatively invested, I like to augment my returns by momentum investing on some hot trend.&nbsp; When I see a divergence which might turn into a trend, I make a minor bet, say 25% of my intended speculation.&nbsp; Then I watch it.&nbsp; If it goes up, and only if it goes up, I add another 25%.&nbsp; And watch it.&nbsp; If it goes up, I add the last 50%.&nbsp; You do this with a stop loss if only a mental one and you MUST stick to your stop loss.&nbsp; It at any time it drops, say 10%, you reduce your play and watch it.&nbsp; Another loss and you further reduce or even exit.</p><p><br /></p><p>I learned this years ago from Gary Smith (not the Fox commentator) and it works very well at reducing the risk, at a very risky game. </p><p><br /></p><p>And that&#039;s the nut folks, investing in the stock market is very much like gambling at a casino.&nbsp; The house has it&#039;s edge and it always take its vigorish and we have to accept it if we want to play.&nbsp; And we can lose our ass at any time whether we like it or not.&nbsp; Witness the dot.com meltdown in 2000 and the 2007/2008 crash.&nbsp; There are peeps that were heavy &#039;invested&#039; in equities that got handed their heads.</p><p><br /></p><p>Best advice I remember reading was from the Elder Rothschild who said to protect your wealth from whatever, you should have 1/3 in securities, 1/3 in real estate and 1/3 in rare art (define as you wish).</p><p><br /></p><p>Do yourselves a favor and run your numbers.</p><p><br /></p><p>and so it goes,</p><p><br /></p><p>peace,</p><p><br /></p><p>rono[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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