What is the 2011 25th Anniversary ASE set really worth?

My comment was 'tongue in cheek' just to be opposite of all those that complain we numismatists shouldn't be collecting ASEs.

They say the premium paid over silver content for the ASE is because it is 'legal tender', but if that was the only factor, it should only be a $1 premium.

I think the bullion guys' complaints about numismatists collecting ASEs is really just sour grapes.
They really want the ASEs for themselves, not just for the bullion because they could get bars anywhere. They don't like us running up the demand, and don't want to admit they want to collect the ASE themselves. It's some form of jealousy or something.

 

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Very funny, but thank you very much. By the way, how many did you order? My thread was close prior to the publishing date for this set, $279.99. Don Rickles said I would get a cookie. Will I still get the cookie?

 

"Very wise, don't know about jealousy, but to make a huge profit is more like it. Isn't that what we all try to accomplish?

 

American Silver Eagle- 25th Anniversary Five Coin Set- To set a value on a 'special set', which" sold out", literally before days end, would be highly subject, at this point in time. To negate such factors as 1. Demand, 2. Amount of Collectors, 3. Sets sold, or any other negative aspect, would certainly be a mistake by anyone. You must realize that 2 coins are distinct, and unique, maybe not to be re-produced again. At least 50,000 serious collectors were left 'out in the cold', due to the influx of orders. To equate these factors, with the intrinsic value, (will get an argument here, each and every time), is sure to bring the cream to the top quickly. I wish not to delve too much on the nature of 'selling and buying'. I personally feel that it is somewhat innate that the person should be knowledgable, and have a certain degree on the nature of coins, and more importantly, have forebearance, in such circumstances. How much are they worth? My personal opinion, $2000.00, bottom line, "no questions asked". Say what you may, think how you will think, but "Do not" have them encased, nor graded. I can see an enormous list of negative responses here, most likely from the "BIG" coin dealers. No surprise to me, nor do I care how they wish to manipulate these sets. Better for us, after everything is all said and done.

 

Shelf appeal for the end user, not the investor. Use your head...

 

You seem to have forgotten in this analysis that, apparently, most of the buyers who bought this coin are looking to sell. So if there are 50,000 collectors of the coin (your number) but 90, 000 coin flippers, it shouldn't take too much to figure out what is going to happen.

 

posted by "annie0926" from another coin forum.

my conservative analysis on $1,500.00's result sold from e-bay.

since australian one ounce dragon priced at $99.00 with 300,000 mintage. then the 25th anniversary is only 100,000.

i priced u.s. 25th anniversary silver eagle as follows:
silver proof -------------------------- $58.95 (u.s. mint) estimate mintage 900,000 to 1,000,000
silver reverse proof with p mint mark-- $700.00 estimate mintage below 100,000
uncirculated with s mint mark -------- $700.00 estimate mintage below 100,000
uncirculated with w mint mark --------- $50.95 (u.s. mint) estimate mintage 360,000 to 420,000 (lowest is 2006w 466,573).
bullion uncirculated ------------------- $40.50 (apmex) estimate mintage 40,000,000 to 44,000,000 (mintage highest ever).

now if we expect this set to go beyond $2,000.00. then these two coins should be:
silver reverse proof with p mint mark -- $1,000.00 to $1,200.00
uncirculated with s mint mark --------- $1,000.00 to $1,200.00

i think those prices should be the maximum that 25th anniversary can get.

why?
1995w proof silver eagle -------------- $2,800.00 to $3,200.00 (mintage 30,000)
2006w reverse proof eagle ------------ $380.00 to $400.00 (mintage 250,000)

the only problem is which one of the 2011 reverse proof with (p) mint mark or unc with (s) mint mark should be quote higher than each other?. for the meantime. we just quote it the same price.

now. next move. in order for this set to hit $4,000.00. i don't know. maybe the 1995w silver eagle and 2006w reverse proof should go up too accordingly.

posted and replied by "silverfire" from another coin forum:

I arrive at similar numbers, but with a bit different methodology. I've based it on the past annual ase set. Below is a copy/paste and some additional notes.


Let's simplify it.

- Buyer looks at 2006 set and the original buy price = 100
- sees the current sell price of 300-400 for the same 2006 set.
- concludes that the 2011, if following history might fetch 300 X 4 = 1,200
pretty basic.

**2006 peaked at 6-700 (6.5x), If 2011 peaked in a similar way, we would see $300 X 6.5 = $1950 ... but as you see below - things aren't quite the same **

now, here are your wrenches:

- do you think there are more ase collectors in 2006 or 2011?
- how many ase's were sold in 2006 vs 2011?
- which set has less than 50% of the mintage of the other?
- which set has the 2nd and 3rd rarest ase's of all time?
- which set sold out in 4.5 hours and which one sold out in 2 1/2 months?
- in 2006 was silver popular? How about 2011?

Based on this information I tend to think 1K is the minimum with high-demand peaks in the 2-4K range. At least that's how I arrived at it.

 

End user? Sounds like something an I/T guy would say, not a financial planner. Which reminds me of a favorite joke. What do financial planners do? A: They put your finances into their plan.

 

I realized this, and somewhat misconstrued your initial post. You are most certainly on target. I do not speak of those issues, for only the business people know of such marketing ribbons. Even though it may be wrong, I do not like to reveal anything which was given me. I really did not expect to see such an example. However, it's nice to see some salesmanship still exists.

 

What was the issue price ?

 

Mary Ann was beautiful, wasn't she? Anyways, $299. 99, I think. You must know this, do you not?

 

I wouldn't ask if I knew it. I'm not into modern stuff.

So it was announced at 100k mintage on these two new keys in advance and then sold out in hours, correct ?

I know the mint has a history of corruption second only to perhaps Congress. They need to make a rarity once in awhile, like....

No S proof coins
no lettered edge dollars
1913 V-nickel

tons more !

I'm torn between Maryanne and Jeannie from that era

 

Just a minute, what about Tina Louise! Tina was truly beautiful, my favorite. Yes, I believe the U.S. MINT sold the merchandise within the day, varying times have been posted. Sorry about the price issue. It was $299.99, for five one ounce coins, two being diverse. These two coins apparently tweeked the interest of collectors, maybe more so dealers, looking to capture wall street. Things never change. Yes, it would be nice to see the U.S. Mint produce an extreme rarity, but can you imagine the chaos, and following turmoil. Very dangerous. Anyways, I really do not know anything about corruption, via the U.S. Mint. If you think in those terms, what good will it do? Maybe, just maybe it could be those trying to strongarm the U.S. Mint, as for the U.S. Mint to take the blame (scapegoat). This is really irrelevant in the scope of numismatics. Now, what did you think of Tina Louise?

 

Tina Louise or Dawn Wells is a decades old debate. Both were fine. Same with Barbara Eden or Elizabeth Montgomery from that time, and agent 99 , Barbara Feldon.

I wish anyone of them was my Mrs. Robinson !

But yes, I'd take Maryanne over Ginger, but not by much !

She was Miss Nevada, somebody here told me she collects coins too ! I like that takes medication for her "glaucoma" too.

Both look a bit rough now at 70+, Jeannie aged the best.

 

back to coins, I think this set will hit $1,000 + in the near term ( 6 months), but I'm not buying any. I wouldn't sell any I had ordered just yet, unless for radical money.

 

Rarity is a factor of supply & DEMAND. 100,000 for a modern bullion coin is rare, given the collector base (demand). Since we have history to rely on, the 1995W (30,000) and the 2006 Set (250,000), we know how much and how many collectors (demand) are willing to pay for a certain rarity (mintage). Based on history, the 2011 Set is worth between $1,000 to $2,000 in OGP, a lot higher if slabbed 70. Wait for the flippers to grab their quick profits for this set to settle into its price. And, if you missed out and have to have one, grab one now while the flippers are flipping, they won't ever sell for less.

 

You left off that DEMAND is greatly affected by price vs perceived value. While people may want a $300 silver coin, there are far few of them willing to spring for one than people willing to purchase a $60 coin silver coin. 100,000 isn't rare by any means with regards to prices increasing to windfall levels.

 

Those two eBay sales for $1,500 and $1,530 from yesterday for single sets have certainly gotten the flippers going – I count around 400 active eBay auctions for the 25[SUP]th[/SUP] Anniversary set going on right now.

 

That would be true if we didn't have the history of the 1995W & 2006 Set. We know from these what the demand is likely to be at certain prices within this series.

 

The point was about rarity. There were 30,000 1995-w coins minted 16-17 years ago. That is a lot less than 100K. The 2006 had 250,000 units produced and it's not commanding "rare" prices.