What do you think will happen to Silver in the next few years??

I'm an optimist myself, not a doomist, but there is the realist in me that tends to rise to the top. I may have said this before, but Peter Schiff (and I really hope there's no relation to Jacob Schiff, although that would certainly explain his foresight to some degree), economic advisor to Ron Paul, predicted the housing bubble a mile away, and he is the only person I've seen talking about hyperinflation in the mainstream. Although I admittedly don't pay attention as closely as some.

 

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I would never say that everything on the net is garbage, which is why I also wrote "It is often difficult to separate the nonsense from the few analysts who really understand the bear market case." Shiff is the son of Irwin Shiff, who may still be in prison for tax evasion. It bothers me a bit that Shiff simultaneously preaches hyperinflation while his company sells gold. It's a bit of a conflict of interest. He's had a lot of problems with huge losses by his investment clients. Frankly, I don't know whether he knows what he is talking about or is the stopped clock that is right twice a day since the only one who seems to be making money from his recommendations is him, not his clients.

 

Haha I love that analogy. I think it's somewhere in the middle, but you make excellent points. Glad that was sarcasm! (It can be hard to identify without a sense for the inflection in one's voice ;-)

 

Peter Schiff has been out there on a limb with unpopular market positions for a long time. Peter has more critics than fans but he has correctly called several market events (including the timing and sequence) and has earned some respect out there even from his critics (bursting of housing bubble, fall of stock market, foreign investors backing away from US debt and Fed stimulus programs). In fairness, I don't think Peter has formed his opinion because of the business he is in. Rather I think he is in the investments business and more recently the PM business because it naturally flows from his vision of where events will take us.

Regards,

Bluesboy65

 

I would feel a bit more comfortable with Shiff if his clients had made money from his supposedly brilliant calls rather than see them sitting on losses. I'm more of a fan of the people who actually have a record of investment performance rather than those who just talk a good game.

 

I'm not a Schiff apologist but it is true, he is a strategic investor not a trader. Also, when the stock market crashed in 2008 several news networks featured Schiff because he was one of the few that had preserved the wealth of his investors. I'm not as familiar with his investors and their recent success/failure as you are but if he has missed in the past several years investing in emerging markets in and precious metals perhaps your vitriolic analysis of him is warranted. On the other hand, perhaps time will determine if his strategic view is a winner or a loser.

Regards,

Bluesboy65

 

I am not for or against Shiff either, but this is what Wikipedia has to say on the matter, so buyer beware. I'm not a big fan of the analysts who claim to know what to do, but can't actually do it. I prefer to follow those with excellect long term track records.

Despite predictions regarding the housing bubble and automotive industry difficulties coming to fruition, as early as 2009 Schiff was receiving criticism due to the performance of some of his client's accounts in 2008, as well as controversies over the predictions themselves. In January 2009, economic blogger and investment adviser Michael Shedlock reported, "I have talked with many who claim they have invested with Schiff and are down anywhere from 40% to 70% in 2008."[54] Other criticisms followed, including the aforementioned Eric Tyson post[40] as well as an article for the investment news site Seeking Alpha, published on the site two days after Shedlock's blog post.[55] Later that week an article appeared in the Wall Street Journal reporting that Schiff's broker-dealer firm, Euro Pacific Capital Inc., "advised its clients to bet that the dollar would weaken significantly and that foreign stocks would outpace their U.S. peers" and that instead, the dollar advanced against most currencies, "magnifying the losses from foreign stocks Mr. Schiff steered his investors into."[56]

The Director of Communications at Schiff's investment firm responded to the original Shedlock piece by saying, "While it is true, that our accounts have suffered badly in 2008, a fact that we have never disputed or ran from, [Shedlock's] estimates for the size our of typical client losses are exaggerated and unfair."

 

the problem with Schiff is that they anticipated that the dollar crash would come fast and all hell would break loose immediately.

what happened instead is that the countries chose to go the loooong wait and agony of slowly divesting themselves of the dollar. foreign stocks also did not go the way he predicted them and some went their own way to oblivion instead. oil was still, well, just going up and down regularly. he was right with gold and silver though.

by the way Peter Schiff was not the only one who predicted the housing bubble and dollar crash. there were already people like him that predicted it even during the early 80s. that is Adam Smith aka George J.W. Goodman who wrote his predictions on a book titled "Paper Money" (1981, Summit Books). but like Peter, he mistakenly thought the crash would come anytime soon (within 5-10 years after his book was printed) - that was where he went wrong.

the time factor is the problem with predictions.

 

Yes, you've made an incredibly important point that everyone should consider.

Folks should realize that the line of thought made by a variety of internet gurus about dollar collapse is not new. Another well respected and mainstream investment analyst and author from the same general time period as 'Adam Smith' was Gerald Loeb who wrote "The Battle for Investment Survival." In that book, after dispensing a huge amount of valuable investment advice, Loeb even questions whether people should try to save and invest at all, or if they should spend more on enjoying life now since the dollar was doomed in the long run. So when people read about dollar collapse, they should also realize that this has been going on and has been discussed for 50 years, and may go on for another 50. The cataclysm some people expect may turn out to be a multi-generational water torture.

 

All I can do is sit back in amazement as I read some of these post's.
The news is all around you being reported daily. The Fed is doing it's best to hide the real numbers from Joe Public, prices are increasing at an ever steady rate in all areas mostly health, food and energy, the Gov is in so much debt it cant possibly ever have a balanced budget, inflation indicators are everywhere, PMs are up with lots of personal and institutional buying, wages are stagnant, health care is through the dam roof and you people say every thing is ok?

Not me, I am preparing what I can in the event it all comes crashing down. I find this to be the path I choose in order to protect what I have worked so hard for. Yes, it may not be tomorrow, next week, or even next year, but it is on the horizion and it seems to be ever approaching.


Here is a recent article you might find interesting.

The silver price has bounced 27% since January 28, a huge advance for a measly 16 trading days. It's already soared past its 2010 high and was selling for less than $16 this time last year, a double in 12 months. So, is it pricy? Or should we ignore the run-up and keep buying?

I've read a few articles that say we should expect silver to drop to the $25 level, and one pinpointed $22. Others, of course, see bullish tea leaves for the near term and believe it's headed higher. Of those that assert silver will decline, most believe it will be temporary, though one writer claims the bull market in precious metals is over (I think he's a holdout from the gold-is-a-bubble camp).

These authors could be right about a near-term decline, but I'm less concerned with what the price does this month or even the next few months, and more focused on where it's likely headed over the next few years. Caution: the chart ahead may cause excitement.

While there are lots of reasons to be bullish on silver, what everyone really wants to know is how high the price can go. Here's one hint, based strictly on historical price performance.

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Silver rose an incredible 3,646% from the November 1971 low of $1.32 to its January 21, 1980 high of $49.45 (London PM fix prices). Our current advance, through February 4, is 596%. At $30, silver would have to climb over five times to match the last great bull market. If it did, the price would hit $160.89 per ounce (from its bottom of $4.295 on March 30, 2001).

You'll also notice silver has a record of outperforming gold in these two bull markets. In spite of the price dropping 26.9% in 2008 (while gold gained 5%), the metal has outrun its yellow cousin by 38.6% since their respective lows in 2001.

Gold advanced 2,333% in the 1970s; it's currently up 430%. If it matched the last run, the price would hit $6,227.26 per ounce, a return of four-and-a-half times the gold you buy today.

From solely a historical price perspective, the chart certainly suggests we've got a long way to go with both metals. The question is if the fundamentals support such price advances (show me a healthy dollar and no threat of inflation, and we'll talk), but my point for the moment is that there is an established precedence for the price of these metals to climb much higher. And just as important, to keep one's eye on the big picture.

So, yes, I'm buying silver at $30, in part because I think the potential for enormous gains is high.

However, I'll add that I'm not draining my cash account to do so. I think it's important for the precious metals investor to always be in the game, but given silver's volatility and the precarious nature of most markets right now, prudence suggests we keep some powder dry as well.

Let's say one of the soothsayers noted above is correct and silver temporarily falls to $25. If you snag it at that level, your endgame return would be 543%, vs. the 436% gain from $30 (excluding premiums and storage costs). That's more than another 100% gain on your original investment.

But how does one buy silver not knowing if the price will plummet or soar? For example, silver could take off from these levels, never to see $30 again, leaving those of you waiting for a sell-off out of the market. Or it could sink to $25, making investors who went all in now regret they didn't wait for a better price. Or it could trade sideways until, say, next fall, leaving both parties uncertain and on the sidelines.

In my opinion, there's a one-word answer to the question. It solves all dilemmas – it keeps you in the market, while simultaneously letting you buy at lower prices if that occurs. It lets you build your position bigger and bigger without the worry of whether you're getting a good price.

That one-word verb is, accumulate. Or in the vernacular made popular in the '80s by the financial planning community, dollar cost average. In other words, buy a little now, buy a little next month, etc., until you have a position sufficient in size to fight off inflation and any other economic woe we're likely to encounter over the next few years.

So my advice is, buy, hold, repeat. Because if our silver market ends up looking anything like that left bar in the chart, you may regret not having bought at $30, too.

 

Things are not all okay, but you're making some radical assumptions here. First of all, I have never seen a shred of evidence that the Fed is hiding anything. There is a massive amount of information on their website that few people read despite what the internet gurus tell you. Prices have been increasing forever. Everybody wishes they were making more money, and it is true that US workers are receiving more competition from foreign workers than they are used to. Health care prices are up because modern treatments cost more, but most of the increase is concentrated in the services that weren't even available 20 years ago, so count your blessings. I survived the 70s when oil prices went from $2 to $40 and sat in many gaslines, and with hard work and a flexible mindset to investing, I expect to get through this too. What people need to realize is that real life has fat years and lean years. Steady progress is the exception, not the rule.

 

Just keep in mind, please, that some of us lived through the late 1970's and early 1980's. I'm sure we all know about the Hunt brothers' little excursion, but it seems a lot of people have forgotten 15% mortgage rates, 12% inflation, and 18% CD yields.

People may regret not buying at $30 today. But I'll guarantee you that the people who bought at $30 in 1980, and didn't sell within a few weeks, are still regretting it.

 

It's OK to prepare, i have the same belief that things will progress to the worst possible scenario but it might take more time than expected because countries that have surpluses and large economic clouts (i.e. China as a sample) will not permit an eventual crash of the dollar as it might take them down too.

Yes there are ups and downs, but what has happened for the last two-three decades has the making of a perfect storm against the US. it will affect everyone in the globe once the snowball effect gets so large it is impossible to stop. But irregardless of factors that contribute to the further detriment of US dominance and dollar power, i'll keep buying silver and gold as regularly as i can.

Silver like Gold will go ballistic, sky-high no doubt. when and how much is always the open question.

 

I was lucky enough to be on the sidelines when the crash hit...and I jumped back in with both feet when the FASB Mark to Market rule was revoked. I just jumped back to the sidelines after Friday's Dead Cat bounce.

I think the odds of higher fuel prices are too great to stay in the market att...time to lock in some gains. I still have a small stock exposure and my weekly 401K contributions and DRIPs are still going into the market so I'm not "completely" out. Who knows...the market may continue to go up from here, but I'll be watching from the sidelines for a while...(jmho).

 

yak, i also was very lucky to be in all cash when the crash hit ... however I never really got back in with both feet so i missed a ton of gains from that march 2009 low.

if you watch a lot of the wall street professionals on CNBC. They are all saying, yes we are due for a correction, but the markets will be much higher by the end of this year. of course the professionals can be (and are) often wrong.

in any case, i am clueless where the stock market is going, but i am very bullish on silver.

 

I'm never on the sidelines. For the past few years I've tried to keep 40% of my stockholdings in energy stocks weighted toward oil instead of natural gas.

 

If you mean that treatments cost more IN THE USA, then you are correct. In some places around the world, however, one can receive the same first class treatment, as good as or better than back home in the USA, for hugely less than in the USA. In fact, one can often fly somewhere, have the surgery, recover in a first class hotel, being waited on hand and foot, and fly back home, all for less than the cost of the same surgery in the USA.

 

Energy is a great defensive play. I did well in energy a few years ago. I was thinking about that on Friday, but figured the smart money was already there.

My Father always used to say, "Don't fight the FED"...so I guess I'm ignoring his advice. I'm afraid that if things start to percolate in Saudi Arabia or Iran...markets could get nasty in a hurry. Either way, I'm comfortable with my decision.

 

You should do what you believe is best. My only personal experiences have been with the US, Russia and Canada. The treatment in Canada was cheaper. The treatment in the US worked better [for the same ailment]. The Russian experience can hardly even be called treatment.

 

I believe that over the next few years, oil producers will be good businesses -- or at least better than most. But anything can happen. All investment is just evaluating probabilities. Nothing is certain.