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what do you guys think of deflation?
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<p>[QUOTE="medoraman, post: 947726, member: 26302"]Treasuries are called "safe" since they harbor theoretically zero credit default risk. All other bonds have to price in a default risk on top of Treasury yields. This "safe" categorization is really only effective in understanding bond pricing mechanisms. It does not relate to what would happen in the event of an economic catastrophe. If hyperinflation happened, all bonds would really be valueless, but stocks would be more valuable since they are claims on hard assets, not claims on money. And of course direct ownership of commodities, (like gold and silver), would be intact.</p><p> </p><p>As to your assertion that metals being the ultimate safe haven for anything negative, that is not true. In a deflationary spiral, everything I just said is reversed. Bond are preferable since they are claims on money, which goes up every day. Stocks become devalued, and people who have their money in gold and silver lose more every day. This happened in the late 1890's, with farmers demanding freer minting of silver to spur inflation, with the Treasury resisting. This lead to Bryan's famous "Cross of Gold" speech.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="medoraman, post: 947726, member: 26302"]Treasuries are called "safe" since they harbor theoretically zero credit default risk. All other bonds have to price in a default risk on top of Treasury yields. This "safe" categorization is really only effective in understanding bond pricing mechanisms. It does not relate to what would happen in the event of an economic catastrophe. If hyperinflation happened, all bonds would really be valueless, but stocks would be more valuable since they are claims on hard assets, not claims on money. And of course direct ownership of commodities, (like gold and silver), would be intact. As to your assertion that metals being the ultimate safe haven for anything negative, that is not true. In a deflationary spiral, everything I just said is reversed. Bond are preferable since they are claims on money, which goes up every day. Stocks become devalued, and people who have their money in gold and silver lose more every day. This happened in the late 1890's, with farmers demanding freer minting of silver to spur inflation, with the Treasury resisting. This lead to Bryan's famous "Cross of Gold" speech.[/QUOTE]
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