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what are indicators of deflation before it hits?
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<p>[QUOTE="SilverSurfer, post: 969829, member: 21603"]"Core US inflation is the lowest since the mid-1960s. US business inflation (pricing power) is at zero. Bank lending is flat and securitised consumer credit has collapsed from $900bn to $240bn in the last year."</p><p><br /></p><p><a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7933235/Commodity-spike-queers-the-pitch-for-Bernankes-QE2.html" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7933235/Commodity-spike-queers-the-pitch-for-Bernankes-QE2.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7933235/Commodity-spike-queers-the-pitch-for-Bernankes-QE2.html</a></p><p><br /></p><p>Well, $660 billion in credit gone in one year. Yeah, I can see how that'd be deflationary. But, this is consumer credit. Bank money on hand after the bailouts and record profits along with all the QE'ing that's been going on is inflationary. Just wait till the banks start lending again, and all that QEing starts to move to the velocity side of the Quantitative Theory of Money equation, and see what happens.</p><p><br /></p><p>I've said this before, I'll say it again. Price volatility due to monetary policy seems to lag 4 to 6 years. So, all the bailouts and QEing will be felt in 2012-2014. Do recall that in July and August of 2008, the Fed was worried about Inflation.....not a housing bubble burst.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="SilverSurfer, post: 969829, member: 21603"]"Core US inflation is the lowest since the mid-1960s. US business inflation (pricing power) is at zero. Bank lending is flat and securitised consumer credit has collapsed from $900bn to $240bn in the last year." [URL]http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/7933235/Commodity-spike-queers-the-pitch-for-Bernankes-QE2.html[/URL] Well, $660 billion in credit gone in one year. Yeah, I can see how that'd be deflationary. But, this is consumer credit. Bank money on hand after the bailouts and record profits along with all the QE'ing that's been going on is inflationary. Just wait till the banks start lending again, and all that QEing starts to move to the velocity side of the Quantitative Theory of Money equation, and see what happens. I've said this before, I'll say it again. Price volatility due to monetary policy seems to lag 4 to 6 years. So, all the bailouts and QEing will be felt in 2012-2014. Do recall that in July and August of 2008, the Fed was worried about Inflation.....not a housing bubble burst.[/QUOTE]
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