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what are indicators of deflation before it hits?
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<p>[QUOTE="Cloudsweeper99, post: 963460, member: 3011"]Before it hits? I'm not sure. I guess it would be characterized by a general shortage of money in the economy that would lead to a significant rise in defaults on debt and, subsequently, crashing markets. </p><p><br /></p><p>My expectation is that the road ahead will be somewhat different than the traditional inflation or deflation scenario. We may see the price of necessities rise [inflation] at the same time the prices of luxuries fall [deflation]. A lot of bonds will default [deflation] while the dollar falls [inflation]. Real estate may continue to fall [deflation] while PMs rise [inflation]. Low interest rates may continue longer than most people expect, but will have the effect of destroying capital formation rather than helping it. These are strange times, and the old rules may not be sufficient to enable most people to navigate through them. It's going to take new thinking, new strategies, and a creative understanding of an economic landscape that no living person has ever experienced in order to prosper. I have no confidence that I can do this, but I'm trying. Good luck to all of us.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Cloudsweeper99, post: 963460, member: 3011"]Before it hits? I'm not sure. I guess it would be characterized by a general shortage of money in the economy that would lead to a significant rise in defaults on debt and, subsequently, crashing markets. My expectation is that the road ahead will be somewhat different than the traditional inflation or deflation scenario. We may see the price of necessities rise [inflation] at the same time the prices of luxuries fall [deflation]. A lot of bonds will default [deflation] while the dollar falls [inflation]. Real estate may continue to fall [deflation] while PMs rise [inflation]. Low interest rates may continue longer than most people expect, but will have the effect of destroying capital formation rather than helping it. These are strange times, and the old rules may not be sufficient to enable most people to navigate through them. It's going to take new thinking, new strategies, and a creative understanding of an economic landscape that no living person has ever experienced in order to prosper. I have no confidence that I can do this, but I'm trying. Good luck to all of us.[/QUOTE]
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