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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Cloudsweeper99, post: 447461, member: 3011&quot;]I would just urge you to consider that you may be making the analysis error of assuming that the spot price is somehow the correct price and that the physical bullion coin price should be priced at some small premium to it.&nbsp; The spot price is derived from the NYMEX/COMEX where futures contracts are traded.&nbsp; Those contracts are largely settled in cash.&nbsp; Lately, there have been massive silver and gold short positions rolled over from month to month that essentially never get settled.&nbsp; You have to deal with what is, not what you want it to be.&nbsp; I suspect that by the time the spot price and coin prices converge again, both prices will be higher than now.&nbsp; Where will that leave you? Buying at lower premiums but higher prices than now exist.&nbsp; Personally, I think that any price below $20 for a silver eagle will look incredibly cheap ten years from now.&nbsp; Perhaps it is easier for me to accept this because I expected the bullion coin and spot prices to diverge and have been saying so for several years on CoinTalk.&nbsp; When silver was $5, I bought silver eagles for $6-$6.50, which was a huge percentage premium that is completely irrelevant now.</p><p><br /></p><p>It also isn&#039;t correct to state that the dollar hasn&#039;t fallen in value.&nbsp; Even using the rigged CPI the value is lower now than two years ago.&nbsp; This seems almost certain to continue and accelerate.&nbsp; The dollar index is a joke because it compares the value of a fiat dollar to the value of other fiat currencies -- hardly a true measure of value.</p><p><br /></p><p>You say you aren&#039;t a speculator, but use technical analysis tools like the 200 day MA to make decisions.&nbsp; I would respectfully suggest that you are much more of a speculator than you think, and you might want to rethink your purchase.&nbsp; Bottom line is that you aren&#039;t going to buy any one ounce silver eagles below $10 now or possibly ever unless there is a massive deflationary depression.</p><p><br /></p><p>Keep in mind that this is only my opinion but is my best thinking on the subject.&nbsp; Everyone has to make their own decisions, but I hope this helps.</p><p><br /></p><p>Edit: In the middle of your post you indicate that $15 is too much to pay for a coin with no numismatic value.&nbsp; First of all, many ASEs already have some numismatic value.&nbsp; The day the US mint announces the end of the series, all of them will jump in price.&nbsp; And $15 is a great entry price for the ASE if you can get it.&nbsp; Remember, coins are probably the highest and best use for silver and should always sell at a premium to bullion prices because the weight and purity is know without the need for assay.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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