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wall st update 9/14 post ecb, boe, fed and nfp a look back on the past few weeks
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<p>[QUOTE="qsilver007, post: 1532160, member: 34667"]Last week Silver cleared 34.00 by</p><p>> just a hair and as of current writing we sit at 34.50ish.</p><p>> </p><p>> Gold closed 1740ish, and is now 1770ish</p><p>> </p><p>> Much was made of yesterdays fed actions at the MBS buying</p><p>> will hopefully stimulate the housing market so people can</p><p>> start using there homes as ATM's again.</p><p>> </p><p>> Land is one of the "hardest assets" on earth, been around</p><p>> since the beginning of time, yet has been greatly</p><p>> overlooked. My wife is a Realtor, for those of you who</p><p>> did not know. She had here BEST MONTH EVER, in August</p><p>> of 2012.</p><p>> </p><p>> Back to metals. There were numerous take downs of the</p><p>> metals during the week, but they scratched and clawed there</p><p>> way back to positive territory yesterday.</p><p>> </p><p>> Option vols hit a low in mid AUG with near dated Silver</p><p>> breaching 20% and Gold briefly breaching 10%. Short</p><p>> dated Gold eclipsed 20% yesteday, and the call skew move was</p><p>> parabolic in both metals. I always find this strange,</p><p>> as it is clear from the price action that traders, algos,</p><p>> and investors are long as we are at 5 month highs. </p><p>> </p><p>> My calculation suggest that between the "Spain Bad Bank," UK</p><p>> QE, ECB open ended bond purchase, and the MBS purchases to</p><p>> come out of the States. There should be another 2-2.5</p><p>> TRILLION US dollar equivalents htting the markets in the</p><p>> forseeable future. My thoughts are that Europe is from</p><p>> from over, the States still have this 16 TRILLION dollars</p><p>> debt issue, the UK continues QE, as well as Japan, which I</p><p>> have not even mentioned.</p><p>> </p><p>> Silver must close above 34.13 on the SI pit close, and GC</p><p>> above 1743. These gains this week in the metals are</p><p>> pitiful to say the least. Gold is up a mere 2%, and</p><p>> Silver only about 1%. </p><p>> </p><p>> Despite way more money being printed in the EU and UK, the</p><p>> Euro and Pound, (I refuse to call it the Pound Sterling, as</p><p>> it has not been backed my Sterling since 1946,) have gained</p><p>> in excess of 3% this week.</p><p>> </p><p>> Due to this, European Gold is well off its high, about 20</p><p>> euros, and will most likely close down on the week.</p><p>> </p><p>> Much as I believe in a long term uptrend in Gold and Silver,</p><p>> Europeans were the leaders in the Gold buying</p><p>> recently. To make an all time high and close down on</p><p>> the week, does not bode well. I can not predict the</p><p>> future, but Euro Gold having a key reversal, and the</p><p>> parabloic rise in call skew may have spelled the range top</p><p>> for the metals. Earlier this year Gold got up into the</p><p>> 1790's and well at 1360's in Euros, it then got a major</p><p>> haircut. Silver has outpaced Gold on the recent run,</p><p>> as the SI:GC ratio has narrowed from 58:1 to 51:1. </p><p>> Platinum has also had an incredible run. It will</p><p>> depend on the Europena close 11:00am CST and the US close</p><p>> 12:25-12:30. But I exited long positions late</p><p>> yesterday, and will be looking for another dip and vol</p><p>> compression to re enter a structured call strategy.</p><p>> </p><p>> Gold has had two 50.00 plus range days in the past week, and</p><p>> Silver two 6% range days as well. As us option guys</p><p>> know tops an bottoms are usually marked by three things,</p><p>> trend reversals, excessive volatility, and parabolic moves</p><p>> in the call or put skew.</p><p>> </p><p>> All three of these happened this week. I have and</p><p>> think taking profits in the yellow and white metals are a</p><p>> worthy choice at this point. The risk reward in the</p><p>> long side is no longer there. Volatility is no longer</p><p>> "cheap." If I had to take an educated guess the powere</p><p>> that be will try to take the metals down today, or on Sunday</p><p>> nite's Globex open.</p><p>> </p><p>> If one needs to be long, i would suggest fencing off the</p><p>> risk, as you can sell calls for a decent premium relative to</p><p>> puts.</p><p>>[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="qsilver007, post: 1532160, member: 34667"]Last week Silver cleared 34.00 by > just a hair and as of current writing we sit at 34.50ish. > > Gold closed 1740ish, and is now 1770ish > > Much was made of yesterdays fed actions at the MBS buying > will hopefully stimulate the housing market so people can > start using there homes as ATM's again. > > Land is one of the "hardest assets" on earth, been around > since the beginning of time, yet has been greatly > overlooked. My wife is a Realtor, for those of you who > did not know. She had here BEST MONTH EVER, in August > of 2012. > > Back to metals. There were numerous take downs of the > metals during the week, but they scratched and clawed there > way back to positive territory yesterday. > > Option vols hit a low in mid AUG with near dated Silver > breaching 20% and Gold briefly breaching 10%. Short > dated Gold eclipsed 20% yesteday, and the call skew move was > parabolic in both metals. I always find this strange, > as it is clear from the price action that traders, algos, > and investors are long as we are at 5 month highs. > > My calculation suggest that between the "Spain Bad Bank," UK > QE, ECB open ended bond purchase, and the MBS purchases to > come out of the States. There should be another 2-2.5 > TRILLION US dollar equivalents htting the markets in the > forseeable future. My thoughts are that Europe is from > from over, the States still have this 16 TRILLION dollars > debt issue, the UK continues QE, as well as Japan, which I > have not even mentioned. > > Silver must close above 34.13 on the SI pit close, and GC > above 1743. These gains this week in the metals are > pitiful to say the least. Gold is up a mere 2%, and > Silver only about 1%. > > Despite way more money being printed in the EU and UK, the > Euro and Pound, (I refuse to call it the Pound Sterling, as > it has not been backed my Sterling since 1946,) have gained > in excess of 3% this week. > > Due to this, European Gold is well off its high, about 20 > euros, and will most likely close down on the week. > > Much as I believe in a long term uptrend in Gold and Silver, > Europeans were the leaders in the Gold buying > recently. To make an all time high and close down on > the week, does not bode well. I can not predict the > future, but Euro Gold having a key reversal, and the > parabloic rise in call skew may have spelled the range top > for the metals. Earlier this year Gold got up into the > 1790's and well at 1360's in Euros, it then got a major > haircut. Silver has outpaced Gold on the recent run, > as the SI:GC ratio has narrowed from 58:1 to 51:1. > Platinum has also had an incredible run. It will > depend on the Europena close 11:00am CST and the US close > 12:25-12:30. But I exited long positions late > yesterday, and will be looking for another dip and vol > compression to re enter a structured call strategy. > > Gold has had two 50.00 plus range days in the past week, and > Silver two 6% range days as well. As us option guys > know tops an bottoms are usually marked by three things, > trend reversals, excessive volatility, and parabolic moves > in the call or put skew. > > All three of these happened this week. I have and > think taking profits in the yellow and white metals are a > worthy choice at this point. The risk reward in the > long side is no longer there. Volatility is no longer > "cheap." If I had to take an educated guess the powere > that be will try to take the metals down today, or on Sunday > nite's Globex open. > > If one needs to be long, i would suggest fencing off the > risk, as you can sell calls for a decent premium relative to > puts. >[/QUOTE]
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wall st update 9/14 post ecb, boe, fed and nfp a look back on the past few weeks
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