Very quiet here the last few days

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by PeacePeople, Jul 23, 2016.

  1. PeacePeople

    PeacePeople Wall St and stocks, where it's at

    I've been told that there is a glut of physical inventory available and you can buy at low premiums. I'm also told that with the recent, a month or so now, that buyers have the belief that we're heading back down to the $17 or $18/oz area for silver and low $1200's for gold.

    Interesting, since I try not to follow the herd, maybe now it the time to buy?
     
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  3. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter

    If there is a glut on the market, I can't see prices doing anything but falling lower until the glut is cleaned out or at least sharply reduced. Beware of trying to catch a falling knife.
     
  4. PeacePeople

    PeacePeople Wall St and stocks, where it's at

    Nonsense. The physical market has no bearing on the spot market... none nothing nadda.
     
    SD51555 likes this.
  5. Collecting Nut

    Collecting Nut Borderline Hoarder

    What?? The physical market has everything to do with the price. The physical market is "Supply and Demand" and that's what determines the price... yes, everything, yadda.
     
    Santinidollar likes this.
  6. Daniel Jones

    Daniel Jones Well-Known Member

    I think it is a little of both. They kind of influence each other.
     
  7. Brett_in_Sacto

    Brett_in_Sacto Well-Known Member

    My two cents is that this is the squeeze play of supply and demand at work. The price was relatively low and went up quickly (world issues, fear, etc). Those that bought in early anticipating the price increase are selling into the rally. Lots of people unloading to book the profit from buying over the past year (available supply) - and late comers to the game are trying to catch the ride on the way up (demand).

    Market is now being fulfilled with those trying to book the profit (supply increase) and the demand is being met - even exceeded. Prices are starting to pull back.

    I can see a pullback - as prices start to flatten. Long term, I think there is growth - the short term, I could see a pullback to 18, even 16. I see a buying opportunity coming up.

    Dollar cost averaging is our friend now.
     
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  8. cpm9ball

    cpm9ball CANNOT RE-MEMBER

    The real nonsense is that people will believe all the nonsense that commissioned reps spread in order to sell their stuff in a market based on nonsense.

    Chris
     
    Santinidollar likes this.
  9. Kentucky

    Kentucky Supporter! Supporter

    Nonsense! :)
     
  10. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter

    If you believe that and are wondering if it's the time to buy, then go load up, I really mean load up at $19.63. First thing Monday morning.
     
  11. PeacePeople

    PeacePeople Wall St and stocks, where it's at

    I clarify this for all you critical thinkers.

    The sales and purchases in the physical market do not impact the spot/futures market at all. The spot/futures market is what the base price of the physical market is based on, plus or minus buying or selling premiums. It is not the other way around. So spare me your technical nonsense.
     
  12. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    I agree with PeacePeople. The tiny amount of pm sold on the physical market is not a factor to the exchanges. On the exchanges you can only buy/sell certain qualified pm in specific warehouses, to take delivery you have to pay up front, etc etc.

    Having said that, the exchanges are the REAL markets for pm, where large quantities are bought and sold by firms who produce or consume large amounts of pm. The physical market is an afterthought that rides on the coattails of exchange price discovery. The exchanges do not care if we use their prices as a reference price, and would probably prefer it if we don't actually. They catch grief from physical investors for their actions, when the physical investors never pay a penny to the exchanges or ever participate in them.

    He and I have different opinions of which market is "correct", but that does not matter. The physical market uses the exchange prices as reference points, but they are nearly separate markets. During price volatility they diverge, sometimes dramatically. Usually the physical market will be more stable, meaning cost to by physical will not be as low as markets will go, but not go as high. THis is true at least short term.
     
  13. Hommer

    Hommer Curator of Semi Precious Coinage

    I understand all of that, but one thing remains, there is a demand, then there is speculation on that demand.
     
  14. medoraman

    medoraman Supporter! Supporter

    In the physical market its normal. When prices go up premiums go down, and vice versa. The physical market has about a 3-6 month memory. After that more physical will come onto the market to force prices down or more belief of further upward movement will move prices back up, both more in line with the exchanges. In 35 years I have never seen a strong short term upward movement like this not associated with lots of inventory and lower premiums charged by dealers. It would be weird if the market was NOT like this today IMHO.
     
  15. charlietig

    charlietig Well-Known Member


    My foot that I doesnt. I don't know who told you that line of garbage but that's completely wrong. Maybe you can spare us your technical nonsense.
     
  16. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter

    Do you mean "technical nonsense" such as supply and demand?:banghead:
     
  17. PeacePeople

    PeacePeople Wall St and stocks, where it's at

    hmmm

    I wonder how many people that post here actually own 1000 ozs of silver? You know, the amount of 1 silver futures contract. A few probably?

    I wonder how many here have 400 ozs or gold. 1, 2? Not many, that's for sure.

    Now tell me, how many of those contracts are bought and sold daily on an average volume day in the various markets?

    You guys still sure the physical market has a real impact on spot/futures prices?
     
  18. charlietig

    charlietig Well-Known Member

    Sounds like we have someone here who thinks they know all and likes to brag.... This should turn into a fun post...
     
  19. Hommer

    Hommer Curator of Semi Precious Coinage

    It doesn't matter if one once is purchased, or 10 million. It is the purchase itself that makes demand. If there were absolutely no demand whatsoever, it would be swept back into the hole it came from. Speculation itself, creates demand.
     
  20. charlietig

    charlietig Well-Known Member

    Yep
     
  21. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter

    Still waiting to hear about the "intrinsic value" of silver and how gold is a "store of value."
     
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