As discussed many times, much of the pressure on gold is the expectation of an imminent US Fed rate hike because everything is so awesome. We’ve also established public consumption is the key component to GDP growth. The precursor to consumption is either producing the goods to be consumed or importing them. So where is the US right now on that measure? On importing – the latest ISM Index showed the import component falling to its lowest in 3 years. The graph below appears to paint an incredibly clear picture of US factory orders (making things to consume). They have just dropped YoY for the 8th month in a row – the longest streak of declining factory orders outside of a recession in history. We say ‘appears’ because if you remove the defence aircraft component (up 21% courtesy of, you guessed it, US government deficit spending…aka debt) it is actually much worse. The pink vertical bands indicate previous recessions. The reason there is no pink recession band in 2015 in the chart could simply be the changes made over the years to how CPI (inflation) is calculated and the subsequent effect on real GDP. There is one index that hasn’t changed and that is the Chapwood Index – defined as follows - "The Chapwood Index reflects the true cost-of-living increase in America. Updated and released twice a year, it reports the unadjusted actual cost and price fluctuation of the top 500 items on which Americans spend their after-tax dollars in the 50 largest cities in the nation.". If you apply that index to GDP, the US is already in recession anyway. Pretty rare for rates to rise in a recession…
"The precursor to consumption is either producing the goods to be consumed or importing them." . . . . whether intentional or not, if that's not a misleading statement, I don't know what is. Plenty of companies have built up loads of inventory in anticipation of demand . . . and many of those companies are no longer with us for that very reason. It is demand, not supply that drives consumption. I do not dispute that the nation is already in recession, but be sure to read these claims critically.
Our President declared the recession over 2 plus years ago. They don't look at charts. In the feds mind, the economy is great. Just listen to what they report, everything's great. Since the economy is in good shape and getting better, people buying homes and cars, production up, energy costs down, unemployment down, etc., that's the major reason gold and silver are dropping. Just ask the feds. We live in a different world-reality.
Yikes, this latest info post is pretty meaningless. Yeah, manufacturing is down a bit, but not a lot, but this issue with this post, it does not even mention that we are a service based economy, not manufacturing. In fact the service sector makes up 80% of the GDP and is growing. There is no mention at all that the ISM has surged to a 10 year high, more than offsetting any weakness in the much smaller manufacturing sector. Please people, don't drink the Koolaid. This whole post was nothing more than a rehash of what was published on zero-hedge with the goal of separating you from your from your Fiat. You know, if someone intentionaly leaves important components to make their "point" seem more valid I have to conclude their "point" was not strong in the first place. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ism-services-index-surges-to-10-year-high-in-july-2015-08-05
I dis-agree. POTUS does not declare when the recession is over. When GDP stops contracting, it is over, it is that simple. Now times may still be be VERY rough when this happens, but that is not the criteria for recession. So without a doubt the recession is over. Now who exactly does not look at the "charts" Thats all these folks do is look at "the charts" If you read the FED reports, NONE of them say the economy is GREAT, not a single one. The FED still believes the economy is somewhat fragile, but it is improving. As far as people buying homes yes they are, just check the homebuilders numbers, it will back it up. Cars? same thing, these numbers are available from the companies direct since they are publicly traded so you don't need to take the Gov's word on it. Look it up. Production is up, look at todays ISM report, very strong. Obviously energy costs are down, and unemployment is down, layoffs are at historical lows. I cannot see how you can argue these points. As far as why PM's are down, well, these things have only indirectly effected the PM prices. PM's was artifically high mainly due to fear of a crumbling economy. They were priced well above fair value. As the above points started to materialize, folks had a few more bucks in their pockets, they were not afraid to go to work on FRI, for fear of layoff, so confidence in the economy improved. PM prices started coming down to a more realistic and substainable levels. BTW, Gold STILL seem to be trading several hundred dollars above fair value, so I do not think we are done yet.
I do not know which is worse, the bullionistas or the 'supplements" salespeople. One of stacker people has stopped buying bullion as he has lost several hundred thousand in value and called me to let me in on living to 100 ~ Bentonite! It was used by native indigenous thousands of years ago ~ yes, and they only lived to about 24 on the average, and no anthropology remains show clay inside of a skeleton. It kills the bad bacteria and viruses in your gut and leaves the good !!!! ~ Nope, They are too much alike. It alkalizes your body to pH of 8-10 so you don't have acids that will cause cancer!!!~ Well yes, you won't get cancer because you would be dead ( blood pH lethality upper limit is 8.0). I said , Oh and by the way the most common use of Bentonite is in Cat Litter! he said he had to go patrol the property with his shotgun. I wonder if metal causes cancer??? J/K
Recession v Rate Rise 2 Yesterday we included a chart overlaying factory orders with previous recessions (shown as pink bands). We invite you to look at the following chart in that same light and see if you spot a similar trend. Below is the CRB Commodity Index mapped since 1974. As you can see we are well into a serious decline. Now overlay the pink recession bands from yesterday and see what you find… As with yesterday’s Factory Orders, you can see that such declines have coincided with recessions in the past. The Australian Financial Review today has a front page caption “Reality Check – Investors are not ready for a Fed rate hike yet”. It goes on to report the fear of “disruption” (the understatement of the day) in markets should the September hike happen. The charts of above and yesterday tell a clear story, and whilst only part of the economic puzzle they are not alone. More importantly they indicate a market in decline and last time that happened they stimulated it with more QE. So ironically whilst the world is fixated on whether or not there will be a rate rise, some are asking when will QE4 start? The chart below might tell you this is not so fanciful a concept….
Yeah, both are a sorry lot. But just look at all the good thing Bentonite does Great Plains® Bentonite is specially formulated to provide the maximum benefits of bentonite. Great Plains® is a mineral source dietary supplement that traps and binds unwanted, non-nutritive substances such as herbicides and other potentially harmful substances so that they do not remain in the body. Bentonite's mechanisum of action is physical, due to its colloidal structure and charge particles. The total adsorptive surface area of each tablespoon serving of Great Plains® Bentonite is over 900 square yards. Great Plains® is a unique naturally occuring bentonites with proper mineral composition for maximum ability to remove unwanted substances.
Woe to you if you take any prescription drugs that are needed to maintain your life, as the points about absorption are valid ( see cat litter above). Unfortunately chemicals can not distinguish between good or deadly effects.
My uncle has a collection of uncirculated Bentonite and it's worth probably a million bux or more. You wouldn't know him, he lives in Canada.
