TRYING TO "Play the GSR" -- HORRIBLE IDEA

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by goldcollector, Apr 17, 2017.

  1. rrholdout

    rrholdout Active Member

    For all the heated back and forth, is there really even any disagreement on this thread? Kurt sees little to no short-term profit potential in metals. Metal holders are looking long-term. It's anyone's guess where metals will be in 20+ years. Is there anything wrong with a small stake in a historically valued and proven commodity? Not really . . .
     
    sakata likes this.
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  3. V. Kurt Bellman

    V. Kurt Bellman 2016 Secretary, Red Rose CC

    But ARE they? I see some who are, obviously. But I also see some dolts who are convinced they can time the market and make a killing as a day trader.
     
    baseball21 likes this.
  4. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    I'm still puzzled. If you're "sitting on" gold or silver, you're betting every day that it will hold its value better than the FRNs you could get by selling it.

    In the short term, you can't be sure of that.

    In the long term, you can be pretty sure that nominal dollars will lose value -- but you have no guarantee that gold or silver will perform better than real estate, or equities, or your memories of that great vacation you could've taken.
     
  5. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    Other than the spikes you’re really almost assured it’ll do worse than other investments.
     
  6. V. Kurt Bellman

    V. Kurt Bellman 2016 Secretary, Red Rose CC

    Outside of the VERY remote possibility of a return of "stagflation", a fear that some people just can't tamp down.

    Some people also truly believe most people lose in stocks. It's an untruth that bedevils lots of folks, mostly those who have previously acted in a manner to MAKE it happen.

    Fear and greed make markets move. The key to success is to be greedy when everybody's afraid, and afraid when everybody's greedy.

    Now, is that emotionally easy? Oh heck no!
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2017
  7. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    They could have probably tripled their stack of it was in stocks observe last year instead.
     
  8. sakata

    sakata Devil's Advocate Supporter

    And you cannot be sure of any of the others you mention. Well, except maybe the memories. That is why you should be diversified. You should hold a diverse bunch of equities, some real estate (usually you home, sometime other stuff) and some PMs. You should also hold durable goods, which may cost a lot more in the future.
     
  9. rrholdout

    rrholdout Active Member

    'Sitting on' a little metal is no different than sitting on an apple tree you put in the yard or 8 acres in Alabama. Nothing is a 'sure thing' - besides work=money. The rest is gambling. Some folks are just a lot better gamblers than others.
     
  10. V. Kurt Bellman

    V. Kurt Bellman 2016 Secretary, Red Rose CC

    I agree with MOST of that diversified approach but some places are worse than others in which to own real estate. In many places in my neck of the woods, property taxes are so ridiculous, and rising so rapidly seemingly without end, that owning real estate is unacceptably risky. The majority of long-term homeowners where I work and live now have annual property tax bills FAAAAAR higher then their mortgages were.
     
  11. rrholdout

    rrholdout Active Member

    And that's what crushed the Amish in east Lancaster County. I guess only the small tourism out Lincoln Highway is keeping them alive. I just never found the skinned squirrels and shoo-fly pie all that appealing.

    I'm at 3% in metal [mostly numismatic silver], and the rest in land. Not because I think that is the ideal portfolio . . . I'm just a lifelong contractor that specializes in restoring rural property. I've said before be very cautious with land. This notion it's a foolproof investment from a 'buy and hold' perspective is outdated. It is a very soft market out in the sticks.

    You want money in land, work it. Successfully lowball raw acreage, establish a residential/hobby farm vision for an end user, DIY minimally improve, sell with financing. Have ironclad seller protection in your contract, be optimistic with your buyer, but root for default. With land you get out what you put in - up to a point. The key is knowing when to say when. This is of course a 'flip' scenario, not a 'hold'.

    Kurt somewhere recommends 'numismatic silver' as the preferred buy in metal. I agree. It's the immediate potential return, generally 100% and above, that makes a buy a good buy. Does that mean both the collectible and bullion market couldn't bottom out at some point? Of course not. There is always risk. Even in that apple tree.

    Baseball seems to recommend that one should always be gambling with one's money due to best possible outlook on returns. Well a lot of folks are poor gamblers, and even good gamblers know when not to gamble. There is a place for commodity-holds. And commodities like land that bleed cash every year are not necessarily a good hold. Liquidity-wise it's an iron yoke. And if your land gets on the community radar in a big way [think 'eminent domain'], you're not winning that fight. My wife's family had a farm that went back generations - county needed a landfill, and approached them with a low cash offer. They refused. County said, 'Well, you can either take the offer, or we'll condemn it, and you get nothing.' Read a little on the land appropriations regarding national parks and New Deal projects. It's sobering. No investment is safe that you can't physically secure and move.
     
  12. Bman33

    Bman33 Well-Known Member

    How are we defining "Numismatic Silver". Thor Coins or Morgans?
     
  13. rrholdout

    rrholdout Active Member

    For me their circulation coins . . . I guess some bullion coins have good sales spreads but it's a finicky market. If it's not 2 to 1 I don't bother. For me they're generally an unflippable hold.
     
  14. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    Not necessarily gamble, with some of it maybe a longer shot here or there that if it pays off will really pay off isn't a terrible move, but there's plenty of stocks that really aren't gambles with modest dividends that at least give a return even if they remain flat.
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2017
  15. sakata

    sakata Devil's Advocate Supporter

    Many members here are of an age where high dividend, solid stocks should be part of their portfolio. About a third of mine consists of stocks which have been giving a 10% dividend for multiple years. As the price of those stocks fluctuated that 10% dividend based on my cost just keep on returning. I do occasionally swap on out if the dividend is reduced or the value drops below certain levels.
     
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  16. baseball21

    baseball21 Well-Known Member

    I do the same. If the only reason I had it was for the dividend and the dividend starts to go away I look for better options.
     
  17. Deadline

    Deadline Active Member

    Your input is useless as usual.
     
  18. goldcollector

    goldcollector Member

    GSR 79 now

    8 months and still waiting for the inevitable drop.

    I'm going to say sometime in late 2019 we see 100
     
  19. sakata

    sakata Devil's Advocate Supporter

    But, goldie, it really isn't, is it? Go to https://comparegoldprices.com/ and https://comparesilverprices.com/ and look around.

    Just cite just one example: the ratio between an AGE and an ASE
    Kitco - 70.09
    APMEX = 70.50
    Provident = 69.67
    GoldSilver = 67.78
    For an average of 69.49
     
  20. Santinidollar

    Santinidollar Supporter! Supporter


    @goldcollector

    Is late 2019 your projected date for filling that order for Silver Eagles you made with a member of this site?
     
  21. Bman33

    Bman33 Well-Known Member

    If you are playing the GSR right now you should be buying silver hand over fist and trading all your gold for silver too. Not something I want to do. Anyone actually doing that?
     
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