TRYING TO "Play the GSR" -- HORRIBLE IDEA

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by goldcollector, Apr 17, 2017.

  1. sakata

    sakata Devil's Advocate

    All of which means that I can buy more silver if I sell my gold. :D
     
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  3. goldcollector

    goldcollector Member

    I thought you were done responding to me ?

    I would respond to your comment but I dont want to trigger you and make you cry again.

    Welcome to ignore since you cant make up your mind I will do it for you.
     
  4. ToppCatt

    ToppCatt ToppCatt

     
  5. ToppCatt

    ToppCatt ToppCatt

    If you bought silver for $12 last week you didn't
    really buy it. You stole it!
     
  6. Sula86

    Sula86 Active Member

    Just curious as to who sells silver under spot? When I sell my silver I consistently get a good premium above spot and have never even sold for spot price. I mostly buy and sell 90 percent US coins though. But even the generic rounds I've sold I've managed to get a small premium above spot.
     
  7. V. Kurt Bellman

    V. Kurt Bellman Yes, I'm blunt! Get over your "feeeeelings".

    Just keep in mind that GSR also stands for "gun shot residue". :D:D:D
     
    John Skelton and HawkeEye like this.
  8. goldcollector

    goldcollector Member

    well it depends on where you are selling. If you sell somewhere like ebay dont forget you have to factor in all the costs that come along with that. Sure any silver thats sells on ebay usually goes for $2-$3 over spot but by the time you pay ebay, paypal, and USPS shipping you are at spot or more likely a little under.

    None of the online sites ( apmes, jmbullion, provy, gainesville) will pay you spot for 90% or really any silver besids maybe ASE you may get spot + 50 cents tops and remember you have to mail it and pay shipping + insurance so you still take back under spot.

    Every LCS in the seattle area I promise you is paying right now no more than $16 for silver and maybe $17 for ASE.

    I can see where you might get lucky every now and then and find someone online to buy your silver for you at spot + $1 or so and cover the shipping but most of the ads posted here at cointalk or facebook are still there a week or a month later.

    I would guess that even sites like jm bullion and provy etc etc are barely getting spot plus a few cents for their silver when you factor in the fact that they have to pay the shipping and insurance on the package.

    jm bullion sells that 10 ounce at spot free shipping even though its limited to 10 ounces each that clearly means they are selling it under spot when they pay shipping.

    i dont know maybe you guys have found a sweet spot because we have a lot of posters here on this board claiming they always buy their 90% under spot, even well under spot and then others who claim they always sell over spot. thats fine maybe you guys should join up and make some arbitrage money.

    its possible some parts of the country buy high and other parts sell low. you guys should see what you can do.

    If you are really one of those people that is a good wheeler and dealer then fine but that doesnt have anything to do with playing the GSR. If you can really sell your silver for "a good premium over spot" then you would probably do well buying it for spot and selling it for profit. Fairly easy to find it for spot, there are even several internet sites that sell at spot with free shipping. Although the quantities are limited like jm bullion 10 ounce and silver dot com 10 ounces and there is another site that offers 10 ounce at spot free ship I cant remember the name.

    thats great if that works for you. Thats just not the point I was making with this thread. and this thread was not an anti-silver thread. it goes both ways. I keep hearing here on this board and elsewhere to buy 1 and wait for the GSR to move in your favor then swap. Thats crazy. Like someone else said that assumes it moves in your favor, which you dont know it will. over the years I have been here they have been saying buy silver wait for GSR to drop, then swap. During those years the GSR has not dropped but expanded dramatically. thats just proof noone knows that the GSR is going to go one way and anyone who took that advice ended up with less gold , not more.

    It just doesnt make sense to buy gold with the intent of later swapping for silver. Or to buy silver with the intent of later swapping for gold. Step 1 is the first and final step- buy what you intend to have dont try to play silly games swapping back and forth between metals because thats pretty much a guarantee that you are going to lose.

    to me this play the GSR and swap back and forth sounds an awful lot like people with their gambling systems that cant lose, but I promise you always do. So I am not trying to get certain easily upset people upset but when something is just plain stupid then its just plain stupid and with all the groupthink here someone needs to say it.
     
    Last edited: Apr 21, 2017
  9. goldcollector

    goldcollector Member

    I just thought I would check for fun

    Gainsville coins is paying 12.2 X face and you get to cover shipping and insurance -- thats $17.06 so depending on how much you sell them youre clearing $15-$15.50 an ounce.
     
  10. Sula86

    Sula86 Active Member

    I always took those places to sell silver to as the "I have to get rid of this now so I'll take less for it" type places. Of course any coin shop or buy bullion or coins type business is going to give you less for it because they need to make a profit. They also have no problem staying in business selling the same product for a premium. The trick is finding those same people to sell your silver to instead of just selling to a business as you described. It's actually not that hard to do. I list stuff for sale often locally and it does not last very long and I often have numerous offers. Maybe the area I'm in just has a better marker for it I don't know.
     
  11. HawkeEye

    HawkeEye 1881-O VAMmer

    Another option is to find someone here who is looking for silver and split the difference between spot and buy back and then everyone wins.
     
  12. imrich

    imrich Supporter! Supporter

    Personally, as a volume Pre-1933 scarce date TPG certified U.S. Gold coin collector, I prefer that the current trend continues. It's becoming quite difficult to locate those coins in past condition/pricing. GO, GO, GO!

    Besides, I'm starting to have difficulty selling large volumes of my estate better condition/priced more desirable Silver coins in the seemingly depressed current Silver tangible coin market. With everyone buying Silver at less than melt, realistic market selling is a challenge!

    JMHO
     
    Last edited: Apr 22, 2017
  13. goldcollector

    goldcollector Member

    Yes I agree with you. My closest LCS has bucket of silver maple leafs and buckets and buckets of generic silver rounds in the display case. Sign on the maples -spot + 50 cents. Rounds spot + 25 cents. No buyers. I ask him does he have any gold - nope one came in yesterday but sold yesterday too. Every LCS I go to its a repeat. I just dont see how silver can make much of a move when there is such an ungodly massive inventory that they cant sell even at current prices.
     
  14. HawkeEye

    HawkeEye 1881-O VAMmer

    Your quote is interesting because there are several interesting threads going on this topic. One is the current Mint sales of both gold and silver bullion, which have gone to almost zero for the month of April. In times of uncertainty people usually flock to gold and silver as a safe haven asset. Why not this time?
     
  15. goldcollector

    goldcollector Member

    There is always and will always be uncertainty. I would say the uncertainty factor is pretty low right now. The economy has gotten better, unemployment is low ( we cant even find near enough good, reliable workers at my job ) We are desperate for people and the pay is above average. There are decent jobs everywhere. North Korea is not even a serious threat. He would never do anything. Just a big talker.

    I dont expect gold or silver to go up much on current events what I look at is things like this very cointalk website. Down in the ads section everyone and their momma has silver listed for sale. No gold for sale at all down there. And no buyers for the silver.

    Wait wait Blissker did sell a small amount of 90% he had listed at spot. Lylelovett has a thread titled "AG at spot". Several websites have 10 ounce at spot silver deals where they cover shipping so they take $2 under spot.
    All of my PM facebook groups are infested with silver at spot ads noone wants.

    Trust me this wouldnt be happening if silver was selling. I dont think I have ever seen an AGE or gold maple or gold bar or even Krug at spot.

    Silver is not selling and the market is flooded. These are real world observations, not tired propaganda that has been sold for decades. IE manipulation, silver shortage, record shorts, COMEX about to default, silver extinction, etc.

    Real world observations make it clear that silver if anything is overpriced. Now if NK nukes SK I dont think anybof us know what that woukd do to PM. Just the same because no way thats happening.
     
  16. Bman33

    Bman33 Well-Known Member

    Silver had a bad week and all the naysayers are out. It was just up to $18.63. Actually I'm not buying right now either. I passed up on some specials that I normally wouldn't have. I have seen first hand that 90% junk has flooded the market. I am seeing this because I am getting offers from dealers at spot or below spot. I think we will continue to see more sales online. I go to one or two shows a month and I will probably see deep discounts there I would think. All this spells silver dropping even more.
     
  17. Garlicus

    Garlicus Debt is dumb, cash is king.

    Currently $17.91, according to Kitco (down 9 pennies, haha...trying to get the "cent" crowd riled up). Was thinking there might be a jump, considering the vote in France today. Color me surprised.

    edit: now it's down 11 cents @ $17.89
     
    Last edited: Apr 23, 2017
  18. sakata

    sakata Devil's Advocate

    I never make the price of silver (or gold) a determinant as to whether to buy. I do make it a determinant as to price to buy at. To do otherwise would contradict my believe that in the long term holding it will preserve my buying power. I have enough in pensions and social security to more than comfortably live in retirement without touching my investments or my PMs (which as not considered investments) so I don't worry. (Yes, I live very frugally.) If my investments, pensions and SS go belly up because of financial turmoil then I m confident that my PMs will save the day. So a few cents variation (or even dollars) in the price of PMs does not at all affect my decision to buy.
     
  19. Bman33

    Bman33 Well-Known Member

    The way I buy, every bit I save helps. Every deal I can find every dollar I can save adds up quickly. I don't buy when silver has had significant drop in a week. No sense in trying to catch a falling knife. I did lock in a deal for this week where at the time it looked great, now with the continual drop in silver it doesn't look great. It was supposed to be a below spot deal now it looks like an above spot deal.
     
  20. losthomer

    losthomer Active Member

    I only factor in delivered price. Don't care about the particulars of spot and premiums if the delivered price is below my buy price. This only applies to generic bullion.
     
  21. sakata

    sakata Devil's Advocate

    You said it perfectly. Never try to catch a falling knife. And never try to time the market. Day traders on Wall Street make the news and are headlines when they do, but most lose money. Same in PMs. Remember, if 64 people produce investment newsletters then one of them will get it right 6 times in a row by chance and they make the money.

    Stand by you convictions, but not to the extent that you are in trouble if they don't work.
     
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