To Grade or not to grade. That is the question

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by stoster38, Aug 17, 2009.

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  1. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Who knows what the future will hold. But history says otherwise. It is a fact that the numismatic value of bullion coins has done nothing but drop in recent years. The only increases there have been in the value of bullion coins has been 100% because of the increase in the price of the metal.

    Slabbed bullion coins, yes even those slabbed as 70's, have dropped in price by at least 50% or more from what they once were. Slabbed ASE's for example that were once priced at $150 can now be bought all day long for $75 or less. Same for the AGE's and APE's. And bear in mind, these changes ot the downside ocurred long before the economy hit the skids.

    So either the market trend reverses, which is highly doubtful, or those who pay high prices for these slabbed coins are going to find out in the years to come that they have lost a lot of money paying for slabbed vesrions of these coins.
     
    GDJMSP, Aug 18, 2009
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  3. PeacePeople

    PeacePeople Wall St and stocks, where it's at

    I think that I buy the mint rounds because I like them, like their asthetics and have no problem paying the premiums I pay. I also think, and may be wrong, that they are a little bit more liquid. For myself I know they are. I have people buy them from me all the time just because they think they are cool and want to have one.

    I will take your advice and shop a little harder for the foreign bullion coins. In all honesty it does not make sense that they would be cheaper, considering some of them have to be shipped halfway around the world to get in this country.
     
    PeacePeople, Aug 18, 2009
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  4. PeacePeople

    PeacePeople Wall St and stocks, where it's at

    Are you saying the MS69 ASE's that I bought for $35 are a waste? I will mention that I sell the ASE's pretty regularly and bought them for the people that like info, and I love getting into conversations with them. For every minute they ask me questions, I am one minute closer to a sale. If I wasted my money from a resale standpoint so be it, but I think it will help me sell not only my ASE's, but also my 90% coins. I did also buy a few MS69 proofs just for show as well, and they did cost me more, obviously.
     
    PeacePeople, Aug 18, 2009
    #23 + Quote Reply
  5. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Does it make sense that a world gold coin, or silver coin, that has the same age, similar mintage number, smaller surviability number, and same gold or silver content would sell for one tenth of what a comparable US coin does ? No, it doesn't make sense, but it is true.

    And you don't have to buy them from half way round the world. You cna buy them right here in the US.

    World coins sell for less than comparable US coins because there are not as many people who want them. They are not as popular as the US coins.
     
    GDJMSP, Aug 18, 2009
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  6. CentDime

    CentDime Coin Hoarder

    The Chinese Panda coins are often counterfeited so if you are buying the highest mintage ones it may not be worth it to slab them but if you are buying the more expensive low mintage panda coins I wouldn't buy one that wasn't slabbed by PCGS, ICG or NGC.
     
    CentDime, Aug 18, 2009
    #25 + Quote Reply
  7. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator


    I'm telling you that those same coins you paid $35 for used to cost $75-$85 just a few years ago. Then they dropped to $65, then they dropped to $50 and now they have dropped to $35.

    What does that tell you ? What do you think is likely to happen 2 years from now ? Do you really think they are going to go up in price given their past performance ?

    And why buy that slabbed ASE for $35 when you can buy the very same coin, raw, which is the very same grade - for $20 or less ?

    There is a saying that goes something like this - those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.

    So I'm not saying anything - I am merely reporting the facts as they exist. You can surmise what you want from them.
     
    GDJMSP, Aug 18, 2009
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  8. CentDime

    CentDime Coin Hoarder

    I don't think the 2006 W or 2008 W unc coins are a waste, they may do well in the long run but the regular bullion silver eagles will probably never go up much beyond spot silver prices except for the conditional rarities.
     
    CentDime, Aug 18, 2009
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  9. PeacePeople

    PeacePeople Wall St and stocks, where it's at

    I mentioned the reason that I bought them was to give me more chance at conversation with my customers. I'm certain that the conditions exist that I may just have to put them in my safe and forget about the graded ASE's that I bought, but if they help me sell the raw "coins" I will gladly spend the $100 on marketing costs alone.

    I am not and was not trying to argue, just trying to learn. There are times where I come off as totally opinionated, and sometimes we all are, but being new to this I want to thank you for the input.

    If I have not mentioned it, I have a silver jewelry store and have always liked coins so I spent the better part of 6 months trying to gather as much info as I could to try and not get smoked when I bought. So far I have done ok. I spent about $3000 on coins that I like and have sold at retail about $2000 worth of them. Went back and replaced them and still only have $3000 total invested and 6 square feet of my shop. If I do not sell another coin, I have a great collection that I would not miss one REM of sleep over. (plus the bullion coins I bought with the profits). That stated I still know that I do not know a darn thing about coins, bullion etc. Hence, why I'm here. So thanks for the info.
     
    PeacePeople, Aug 18, 2009
    #28 + Quote Reply
  10. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Neither am I. I am merely posting what I know to be true. But consider that when I made my comments about the history of the value of these coins it was in was response to this -

    That is a completely different scenario than what you are now talking about. Sure, if you buy coins in bulk now and then try to sell them individually within a few weeks or even a few months you are probably going to make a buck or two.

    But as more and more people become educated about these coins and realize that they have little or no numismatic value, and as the populations for the slabbed versions increases daily, then the prices for the slabbed versions are pretty much doomed to do nothing but go down.

    Changes like that do not ocurr in a few weeks or months. But wait two years or more and the changes are all too easy to see. Unfortunately so are your losses.

    You gotta remember folks, until 2000 very, very few people would ever bother having these bullion coins slabbed. So the populations for these coins was way low. But then a lot of newbies came into the hobby because of the State Quarter program. And they had little if any understanding of the coin market. So prices for these slabbed coins started out way up there. And soon a lot of people began to submit them for slabbing. Then they actually increased for a bit. Then the dealers discovered that the newbies would buy these and the submissions skyrocketed.

    Unfortunately for those bought them at thos einflated prices, the popularity of and the number of coin forums was also increasing at the same time. And people soon began to find out that the values for these coins was falsely inflated and the bottom dropped out of the market for them. It has been dropping ever since. And with the mintages for these coins growing larger almost every year, and the submission numbers still increasing and thus the population numbers increasing, the values for the slabbed versions can do little but continue to go down until they reach a parity with the raw versions.
     
    GDJMSP, Aug 18, 2009
    #29 + Quote Reply
  11. PeacePeople

    PeacePeople Wall St and stocks, where it's at

    Got it. What you state makes perfect sense about the slabbed version of these.

    What about the proof versions that are in the special packaging. I have looked at them but have passed on all for now except the 2006W set of 3. I see the set of 3 for upper 200's now and the individual years for $40 to $150. While they are nice do you think the premium is worth it?

    Is the influx of newbies your reason for selling off your collection or did you have other reasons?
     
    PeacePeople, Aug 18, 2009
    #30 + Quote Reply
  12. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    No way to say. I can say this, it used to sell for more. So whether prices stabalize here or drop more is anybody's guess. Those coins are anomolies.

    As for Proofs, they are no different than the business strikes. With 1 exception, the '95-W.

    Not at all. I sold my US collection because I discovered I liked world coinage a lot more and it was a much better value. Then I sold my world collection because I finally realized that I loved the study of coins more than I loved the coins themselves.
     
    GDJMSP, Aug 18, 2009
    #31 + Quote Reply
  13. PeacePeople

    PeacePeople Wall St and stocks, where it's at

    This I can agree with completely. They all have stories about something or somebody behind them. While some might be more interesting to some people more than others, they all have a story about their time and what was happening, or not happening for that matter.
     
    PeacePeople, Aug 18, 2009
    #32 + Quote Reply
  14. CrustyCoins

    CrustyCoins Twilight Photographer

    I did not see that he sold his collection, it almost seems that he buys and sells these regularly.

    I will say that I sold my collection a year ago getting tired of replacing coins that get milk spots, mostly 2004 on that had problems.
     
    CrustyCoins, Aug 18, 2009
    #33 + Quote Reply
  15. silvrluvr

    silvrluvr Senior Member

    I like the raw proof ASEs compared to the raw ASEs. To me, 10X as beautiful at about 2X-3X the price. Fewer made as well, not an issue for me though, I just collect 'em and admire their beauty. When I have them all I will make a sweet wall display for them and be able to admire them constantly.

    Have fun!
     
    silvrluvr, Aug 18, 2009
    #34 + Quote Reply
  16. CrustyCoins

    CrustyCoins Twilight Photographer

    As much as I would like to see that wall display aren't you worried about it being a target for thieves?
     
    CrustyCoins, Aug 18, 2009
    #35 + Quote Reply
  17. silvrluvr

    silvrluvr Senior Member

    Nope. I'm taking care of my Mom in a Senior's neighborhood. If you even sneeze, somebody will know about it. Plus, burglars tend to get shot in this part of the country, and we rarely ever leave home. If we do, there's neighbors everywhere. Plus a $1500 collection is small potatos. If I had a $30,000 coin, then I'd be a bit nervous about keeping it at home. I collect to admire my coins. I'll never be a 'safe deposit box' collector. LOL
     
    silvrluvr, Aug 18, 2009
    #36 + Quote Reply
  18. CrustyCoins

    CrustyCoins Twilight Photographer

    I have to admire that. It must be nice to view them as artwork every day. :)
     
    CrustyCoins, Aug 18, 2009
    #37 + Quote Reply
  19. silvrluvr

    silvrluvr Senior Member

    Yeah, I'm not into high dollar coins...just ones that are beautiful and affordable to me. I feel for the folks that have to worry a bit more about theft. I'll probably never have much more than our homeowner's insurance will cover anyway. I really wish that everyone could proudly display and constantly admire the labors of their love for this hobby. Some people ruin it for everybody. When crooks make you fearful, that is what terrorism is all about...making you scared, and should be dealt with appropriately.
     
    silvrluvr, Aug 18, 2009
    #38 + Quote Reply
  20. GDJMSP

    GDJMSP Numismatist Moderator

    Nope, just twice. And since I no longer collect there will not be a third.
     
    GDJMSP, Aug 18, 2009
    #39 + Quote Reply
  21. CrustyCoins

    CrustyCoins Twilight Photographer

    I guess we can go back to the original quesiton then, why did you quit?

    Was it for the same reasons I had with the spotting?
     
    CrustyCoins, Aug 18, 2009
    #40 + Quote Reply
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