This is Why NO $50 Silver

Well you know you've won an argument when the other side has nothing to say but to suggest censoring the entire argument. You can't ignore away the coming hyperinflation. When you stick your head in the sand, you get bitten in the ass.

The dollar is strong because it is lower than it used to be? We're in good financial shape because we can still pay teaser rates? Honestly, I don't know whether to laugh or cry. What do you think will happen when interest rates go to 10%+?

 

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Go back and re-read your last five posts... your claim to absolute knowledge far exceeds the claim that the future is unknowable. And of course even that is wrong. Our entire brain is specifically built to ensure exactly the opposite -- that the future is knowable and predictable. If all we needed was to respond to immediate stimulus, we'd be no different from amoeba. Actually, strike that, even amoeba do some amount of anticipation. OF COURSE the future is knowable. It's just a matter of induction from the past. The problem with those such as yourself who claim that the future is absolutely unknowable is that you fail to learn about the past. For those of us who do, the future is quite transparent.



Read more: http://www.cointalk.com/showthread.php?t=163365&page=19#ixzz1JsrDIy9r

Sorry, I just had to repost where Passant claims that he can predict the future, "OF COURSE the future is knowable", (his quotes). I guess my brain just doesn't work as well as his does. I bet the bookies HATE him!

Ok, I am done. Nice discussion all, hopefully some newer investors learned something.

 

Well I don't know about you, but I can point to a specific prediction of mine in this forum which proved to be right on the money....

http://www.cointalk.com/showthread.php?t=164193&p=1143846&viewfull=1#post1143846

At the time, April 2nd, gold and silver were below $1440 and $38, respectively. And I called for them to break out imminently, probably Monday, and to load up on Monday if you could before they broke out. They were up that Monday, but broke out past the cited levels on Tuesday. We're now around $1490 gold and $43 silver. It's hard to be more right than that. :hail:

It's not that your brain doesn't work, it's just that you're using it incorrectly if you refuse to look at history and at present events and do a simple comparison. That's what our biological neural networks are superb at which the best supercomputers cannot match -- noticing trends and patterns. So, yes, let this be a lesson to everyone, quit fighting with your gut feelings of fear and greed, and start opening your mind to the reasoned, empirically-based positions of others.

We will see $50+ silver this year. Perhaps not before a summer pull-back, admittedly, but so long as we have massive budget deficits and the Fed continues monetizing them, precious metals will continue their bull trend. It's baked in the cake.



Note that in 1980, gold and oil were leading monetary expansion while today they are CATCHING UP! We have much further to go. But do recognize that there will be sharp pull-backs along the way -- don't panic. Read the charts. Hold a core position and trade maybe 10% of it to take profits and buy dips if you like. Now is not the time to sell everything and go short. You can go short the day the Fed announces that they're reconsidering their position on dropping money from helicopters and will be setting their inflation rate target to -2%. Or when the Congress wises up and passes a law to abolish the Federal Reserve (and simultaneously passes a Balanced Budget Amendment).

 

Passant, let me try to explain it to you another way since the crystal clear explanations of others have failed to get throught to you.

Everyone here already knows that gold and silver have been and are in a bull market. Everyone here, I would venture to say, is invested in one or both metals. Everyone here expects the price to be higher in the future than at the present -- otherwise we would have sold. But everyone here except you [and maybe a couple others] recognizes that we are just riding a trend that is due to a multitude of factors that will end someday, and hope to get out with most of our profits. You are the only one here who believes he is predicting the future and can know the future. Frankly, I'm a bit surprised you weren't able to predict that we wouldn't be impresed.

I hope that clears things up for you.

 

Wow, that's quite a contradiction to your entire portfolio of posts in this thread to date. As a matter of fact, you have stated continually (since much lower than today's prices) that you expect that "now" is the top and time to get out. The entire argument in this thread is whether or not we'll ever see $50. So if you have been on the bull side of the argument all this time, it sure is news to me! Maybe you should work on your communication skills. And if you're right that "everyone here [despite emotional pleas to the contrary] expects the price to be higher in the future than at the present", then how is that NOT predicting the future? You are just a treasure trove of contradictions! Is this your way of admitting that "Passant, you're right, of course people can predict the future, and you're right that silver is going much higher, I don't know why I've been arguing all this time; please forgive me." Ok, you're forgiven. Let's all finally agree once and for all that silver is going over $50 and this thread has reached its conclusion in perfect agreement.

 

I was pretty sure you wouldn't understand, but I feel better after trying to help you as others have attempted. I would challenge you to find a quote from me that "now is the top and time to get out." Maybe you read where I said that I have started to sell some PM investments and expect to sell more as the price rises. If so, then perhaps it is your reading comprehension skills that are deficient.

Warren Buffett has stated many times that he can't predict the future and that it isn't necessary [or possible] in order to be a successful investor. Since he is more successful than you, perhaps there is a lesson there for you to look at. Good luck.

 

Passant, going back to my point, if one assumes an inflationary environment, then that assumption includes the prospect of increased NOMINAL pricing on evrything long term. In that regard the OP is wrong if he shares our assumption of inflation. This does not mean anything less than that is a buy today, it does not mean that silver is a good or buy today, it simply means what is stated. I believe most of us also read into the OP thread starter a time reference, meaning he meant short term.

It really is your tone of superiority that chaffes people Passant. You say I should read history, but I will bet I could pass any history test from any era with a higher score than you, I am an ancient coin collector, history is an almost mandatory sub hobby of that field. There are many here who would best me, try talking to Doug Smith sometime, and others. You create a busy Monte Carlo simulation that for all of its activity boils down to your assumptions and timelines to "prove" what you wish to prove. I have an MBA in Finance from one of the most prestigious schools in the world for Finance, and I taught MBA level Finance, others here have similar backgrounds. What are your qualifications regarding your modeling? I can point by point show you where I would mark down your model if you turned that into me for a project, but I seriously doubt you would take the constructive criticism. You throw around you 10 year interest in silver as a qualification, well add 20 years to that and you are close to me, add even more than that for others here. I was investing in silver heavily at least a decade before you ever "discovered" it. You laughably say that predicting the future is easy. If you truly believe that, then I am truly sorry. You remind me of someone in the mid 90's who just started making money in dot com stocks and were on the Yahoo and America Online boards then, boldly predicting that Ebay will trade at $400 shortly and "its different this time". Its always "different this time" every single bull market. Economic forces will stop being applicable, production cannot increase, the massive amounts of built up inventory will never be sold, there will be some miracle use of the product, everyone in the world will suddenly want to buy this at any price, etc. etc. ad nauseum.

I just wanted to tell you this Passant, in case you were wondering. If you stop belittling everyone else's opinion, start reading and incorporating responses into your answers, not thinking you are the smartest person on the board, and wanting everyone to know it, things could go a little smother.

Chris

 

I agree. For anyone who missed out on the old AOL investment chat rooms in the late 90s, just read passant and you will get the idea. And he will probably come to the same end.:taking-a-bath:

 

I just wanted to tell you this medoraman, in case you were wondering. If you stop belittling everyone else's opinion, start reading and incorporating responses into your answers, not thinking you are the smartest person on the board, and wanting everyone to know it, things could go a little smother [sic].

What piques you is not that I think I'm smarter than you, but that you think it, and will try to do anything you can to convince yourself otherwise. Really it comes down to put up or shut up... make an actual argument instead of ad hominems.

You know nothing about me. I happened to do quite well in tech stocks on both the up side and down side, entirely based on my accurate assessment of fundamentals. BTW, we have a second tech bubble currently in progress. The precious metals market is NOTHING like tech stocks. We're talking about a fundamental dislocation of the entire economic system occurring here. If you think you're ever going to be able to sell gold or silver ultimately and move into other dollar-denominated investments and not get wiped out, you're either ignorant or delusional. Unless both of two magnificently unlikely things happen -- Congress passes a balanced budget and the Fed stops printing money -- then the Dollar is doomed. You'll be able to hedge back and forth arbitraging the ups and downs, but ultimately, the Dollar is going to zero. If you don't understand that, you're not only taking a bath, but your life could very well hang in the balance.

 

BTW, just so you know how other people think of you, I've been receiving messages from multiple people who have popped in and didn't want to get involved telling me I'm right on the money and that I'll never convince the few diehard Keynesians and old-timers who got burned in 1980 and now think that investing in gold and silver is a fool's errand. I guess they're right. Well, I tried anyway. Ignore the obvious at your own peril.

 

Good luck to you passant. If life tries to teach you a little more mental flexibility over the coming months and years, don't fight it. It might be fore your own good.

 

That reminds me of Ben Graham's old saying [paraphrasing] - You are not right because others agree with you. You are right if your facts and reasoning are correct.

It's probably hard to do when all you hear is the fans cheering.

 

Right there, the way you put things that if I do not agree with you I am either IGNORANT OR DELUSIONAL. Who said anything about selling PM's for dollar denominated assets? Your assumption, that is what. You don't know my portfolio.

 

Lol, me a Keynesian. When I taught Econ I would spend days trying to talk Keynesians out of it. Also, I made out like a bandit in 1980 by selling below $35, I was never burned. I bought 10 times as much back in the early 90's.

 

It's probably hard to do when you don't present any facts or reasoning either.

Just so you know, science actually relies on two logical fallacies -- abduction, or affirming the consequent, and corroboration, or argumentum ad populum. Now you might suggest that that invalidates scientific reasoning, but in fact science is a process for discovering reliably true information, not deducing things from that information. And it's hard to argue with science's success. So when I'm testing the viability of my hypotheses by stating them on discussion forums such as this, corroboration from others is actually very useful. So is contervailing evidence of course, to determine if I need to change my hypothesis, but that requires opponents to actually present evidence. As such, those who have confirmed my hypothesis have been eminently useful, whereas you have not. Appeals from emotion are useless to me. Nobody here has refuted any of my statements in any meaningful way, so the hypotheses have only been further corroborated.

Good luck putting your assumptions to good use, you'll need it.

 

I have a funny story about $50 Silver....

I'm trying to sell my condo ( been on the market about 240 days now) , but this was last fall...so I go to the local swapmeet/ flea market as a seller. I get a spot next to this guy in a van ( he has some coins), that's just random as to when you pull in. I knew this guy well from the Guilford Coin Exchange ( CT) in the late 70's....didn't find that out until after a couple of hours and talking coins.

I think he's about 65-67, I'm 47. I was a kid at that great Guilford coin shop with the bidboard, but I made school teacher type money at the union supermarket while in HS. I made like 14-17K when in HS circa 1981 ( union job). I got out of school at 11: 14 am...had my credits. I made more money than my mother ( head teller of a bank) when I was still a junior in HS.



That ruined me....I now wish I didn't have it so easy 30 years ago, and maybe went to college for real and became an engineer, doctor or something. I did some sporadic college classes over the decades...but I think I'd be a better man today without making so much money ( relatively) , early. I also had a long-term lucrative paper route as a kid from like age 9-15

 

Abduction is an instance of the scientific method. It recognizes that here are infinite possible explanations for any of the physical processes we observe, not just the more obvious one. But we are inclined, due to experience /knowledge to abduce a single explanation (or a few explanations) for them, and through further experimentation ( scientific method) it is expected that one can eliminate some of the possibilities. However, the scientific method doesn't PROVE a hypothesis, no matter how certain the proposer is of his work , because one can never evaluate unknown factors entirely.

DNA was once thought to be a nucleotide base, a deoxyribose sugar and a phosphate backbone. No exemptions were known until recently, when some bacteria showed DNA with an arsenic backbone rather than phosphate.

Your theories do remind me of the 1993 "discovery" of Cold Fusion at the University of Utah. They were certain they were right also, and still have forums and an institute, as some people do still believe them.

IMO

Jim

 

All of my facts and reasoning are contained in various posts in the bullion forum. What you won't find are predictions. But since we've previously established your problem with reading comprehension skills, it isn't surprising you missed them, or ignored them. You can attempt to use scientific methods to validate your guesses, but the market isn't science [although portfolio management can be]. It doesn't lend itself to the scientific method, and results are not predictable. Prediction is the test of good science, but probability and human nature rule the investment world

It is not my intent to assist you, but to protect others from you. Some will listen, others won't. If I've helped even one person here by exposing the danger of following your lead, it has been worth it. No legitimate, honest, competent investor or investment advisor would make the claims you have made, which are long on ego, but short on science.

 

It's a good story. But everything happens for a reason and if you didn't have such good work habits when younger, who knows what would have happened to you. A lot of kids get into a lot of trouble from having too much time on their hands.

 

A video for the cheerleaders.

http://maxkeiser.com/2011/04/18/margin-requirements-on-silver-useless/

Recap:

A margin hike by the Comex will mainly affect paper traders and will drive prices higher because the price of Silver is determined in the physical market and most physical buyers don't buy on margin. There isn't much shorting going on by actual investors/funds in the Silver market. The recent $1M bet against Silver (buying $25 calls) is nothing. This market is going to get A LOT more volatile and there will eventually be Billion dollar short positions. The current positive sentiment will lead to more upside from current prices. Keep accumulating.