But SOMETIMES thinking for yourself with no hard information will lead you to a conclusion that is valid only inside your head. Common sense is not so common, and thinking for yourself is fine, but shouldn't you use real data instead of just dreaming up a scenario? Cloud, you said yourself that you had a good idea many years ago, but were afraid that you needed to reevaluate your thought patterns in order to come up with fresh ideas, because the same old ideas are dangerous while investing. That is all I am doing, challenging your assumptions as to what is happening. Maybe what you said has happened the last 20 times this market action has taken place, but has that happened this time?