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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;ALudlum4750, post: 1995373, member: 72244&quot;]Hello, my first thread here.&nbsp; I was referred by PeakOil.com.&nbsp; I also used to be a member at GoldisMoney.com</p><p><br /></p><p>I think one of the things to watch is the oil price and how it is tracking with PM prices.</p><p><br /></p><p>Oil down-ticked to 95 on Tuesday May 17, at the exact same time as the US $ hit it&#039;s peak-for-the-week.</p><p><br /></p><p>Which also happened to be when Silver made it down to about $32.85.&nbsp; About 11:10 AM Eastern time.</p><p><br /></p><p><img src="http://oi54.tinypic.com/6f61xw.jpg" class="bbCodeImage wysiwygImage" alt="" unselectable="on" /></p><p><br /></p><p>It&#039;s almost like watching a transistor with gain.&nbsp; Oil falls 5%, silver falls 30%.</p><p><br /></p><p><img src="http://oi55.tinypic.com/xqjjgh.jpg" class="bbCodeImage wysiwygImage" alt="" unselectable="on" /></p><p><br /></p><p>For sure silver has been tracking oil the last several weeks.&nbsp; When oil made its highs, that&#039;s when silver got to US$48-$49+.</p><p><br /></p><p>That silver tracks with the oil price at times, one can see by observation.</p><p><br /></p><p>The reason for oil trading as it does, we might need a whole forum category for that.&nbsp; The way world affairs &amp; the world economy &amp; currency trading works, a reduction in geo-political in-stability tends to correlate to a lower oil price.&nbsp; If silver is tracking with oil at that time, then the silver price falls.&nbsp; That&#039;s the behavior we saw last week.</p><p><br /></p><p>Also, I think, there was some price manipulation going on - <b>a hypothesis.</b> The huge dive in the silver price occurred before the official announcement about Bin Laden, but after the actual incident ... nice to be an insider, I guess.</p><p><br /></p><p>Because much buying &amp; selling is computerized, with limit stops, many times when a commodity takes a dive, people sell silver because their computer is programmed to sell silver when it sees a particular price decline.&nbsp; Combine that with the recent consecutive increases in contract prices, the amount you need to &quot;put down&quot; to buy a 1000 ounce silver bar - it used to be really low, like $1 an ounce.&nbsp; now it&#039;s, I think, about $20,000 for a 5000 ounce contract.</p><p><br /></p><p>So when silver hit that US$32.85 on Tuesday after the official announcement about bin Laden Sunday night, there was a lot of &quot;stuff&quot; going on in the markets.</p><p><br /></p><p>Silver tracking with oil, perceived reduction in geo-political in-stability, increase in margin requirements (is that the word ?), snowball effect on the downside when limit orders cause more selling ... all forces that push the price of silver down.</p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>Sometimes I wish they would require people to put up all 100% - they want to buy 5000 ounces, they put up the full amount, $175K when silver is @ $35.</p><p><br /></p><p>But maybe there&#039;s some legit reason for the margin requirements to be lower.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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