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<p>[QUOTE="Juan Blanco, post: 1589475, member: 41665"]I worried that mere <i>mention </i>of the "Gold Bubble" would set someone's teeth gnashing. I wasn't proven wrong. (fwiw: I'm not convinced 1979 was a <i>true </i>Bubble/Mania, either.)</p><p><br /></p><p>The 1979 Event has alot of background sadly missed/dismissed here. I'm not surprised though: the convo is uniformed elsewhere, too. As NorthKorea notes, it wasn't ABOUT the US Interest Rate. The monthly interest rate in December 1979 was .0099, as in October 1979, and the Annual Rate had doubled since September 1977. Gold and interest rates rose in tandem until they didn't - Gold fell, abruptly: why? </p><p><br /></p><p>I cannot prove 'no one was selling' (late December) or that the New York market essentially froze on supply constraints while Iranians' financial agents mopped up the London market. But I've also seen no evidence that <i>US retail</i> was buying or selling ("widespread participation") at Gold shops then - unlike <i>lines of Montrealers </i>I've seen converting Cdn$ to USD$ in October 2007:</p><p><a href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2007/10/31/dollarjump.html" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2007/10/31/dollarjump.html" rel="nofollow">http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2007/10/31/dollarjump.html</a> </p><p><br /></p><p>If the general public is a non-participant or net seller of an overvalued asset<i> for a long time before a severe price correction</i>, the 'shoeshine boy' isn't the pin deflating a so-called Bubble. Something else happened.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Juan Blanco, post: 1589475, member: 41665"]I worried that mere [I]mention [/I]of the "Gold Bubble" would set someone's teeth gnashing. I wasn't proven wrong. (fwiw: I'm not convinced 1979 was a [I]true [/I]Bubble/Mania, either.) The 1979 Event has alot of background sadly missed/dismissed here. I'm not surprised though: the convo is uniformed elsewhere, too. As NorthKorea notes, it wasn't ABOUT the US Interest Rate. The monthly interest rate in December 1979 was .0099, as in October 1979, and the Annual Rate had doubled since September 1977. Gold and interest rates rose in tandem until they didn't - Gold fell, abruptly: why? I cannot prove 'no one was selling' (late December) or that the New York market essentially froze on supply constraints while Iranians' financial agents mopped up the London market. But I've also seen no evidence that [I]US retail[/I] was buying or selling ("widespread participation") at Gold shops then - unlike [I]lines of Montrealers [/I]I've seen converting Cdn$ to USD$ in October 2007: [URL]http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2007/10/31/dollarjump.html[/URL] If the general public is a non-participant or net seller of an overvalued asset[I] for a long time before a severe price correction[/I], the 'shoeshine boy' isn't the pin deflating a so-called Bubble. Something else happened.[/QUOTE]
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