The 2017 prediction thread - What's next for metals this year?

Discussion in 'Bullion Investing' started by Brett_in_Sacto, Jan 16, 2017.

  1. Greg Smith

    Greg Smith Member

    Do you mostly purchase bullion or some 90% also?
     
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  3. FryDaddyJr

    FryDaddyJr Junior Member


    why would I be misinformed? using your house as a piggy bank is what got us here in the first place and it's something I've never considered doing. I bought my place for cash decades ago and never looked back. I don't think I need lessons from you or any of the people you mentioned.
     
  4. chascat

    chascat Well-Known Member

    You might as well keep on renting if home values don,t matter. The majority of today,s homeowners are young, hardworking, honest people who don,t need another recession caused by greedy investors. Oh, by the way, did your home go up in value after decades?
     
    Last edited: Jan 21, 2017
    Brett_in_Sacto likes this.
  5. FryDaddyJr

    FryDaddyJr Junior Member


    Are you daft? I just said I've owned my own home outright for decades.
     
  6. chascat

    chascat Well-Known Member

    That,s wonderful...and you also mentioned you were not affected by the market collapse of 2008. How fortunate you are...I don,t know anyone who can say they weren,t affected in some major financial way. Coins dropped, stocks dropped, interest dropped, housing dropped, and jobs were lost, all in the name of greedy investors. All I said earlier, is, I hope this new Trump money system can grow and prosper without disastrous consequence for all,Edited Oh, and by the way, I,ve been called far worse things than Daft...I consider that to be a compliment.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jan 21, 2017
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  7. desertgem

    desertgem Senior Errer Collecktor

    You can talk about recessions, bullion, etc. But keep out the personalized political comments!!!!! About anyone on any side of the political spectrum.Thanks
     
  8. chascat

    chascat Well-Known Member

  9. FryDaddyJr

    FryDaddyJr Junior Member


    let's say my house value dropped a bit for 3 or 4 years. So what as long as i don't sell, it didn't affect me. same with stocks
     
  10. chascat

    chascat Well-Known Member

    You made the right choice, do nothing. I made the same choice and recovered also. I also had plenty of equity to survive the hard times in both of the prior recessions. Things look good for the present, so I won,t make any fast moves if the economy sinks or swims. The point I try to make for the young ones is only to not over extend in any of their investments, and have a little savings set aside for the tough times ahead. I lost a lot of equity in the last downturn, but it was all on paper anyway and didn,t really matter. The ones who got slammed the hardest were mostly young families, average blue collar jobs, and little savings. A rough situation to be in when they loose their jobs and can,t keep up mortgage payments on a home with a negative equity. I hope it never happens again like in 1994 or 2008, but weve just gone thru some fair times and the tention seems a bit strong for a downturn of some sort. I hope I,m dead wrong about that and Trump actually has a fabulous cure for the next few years. As for the PMs, I don,t have the slightest clue as to how they tick, and don,t think anyone else really understands them either, but I do think that real estate, stocks, and reasonable interest rates are the makers or breakers of the economy.
     
  11. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    "Why do you keep saying such mean things about Mr. Capone? Many of Chicago's leading public benefactors have to resort to some questionable tactics in order to address the city's important issues."
     
  12. Mikey Zee

    Mikey Zee Delenda Est Carthago

    Just bullion for now...
     
  13. Brett_in_Sacto

    Brett_in_Sacto Well-Known Member

    I disagree. Everyone in the US got hit pretty badly. The ones that got slammed the hardest were the ones that saw "easy money" and no downside, and followed bad advice on the "get rich quick" equity roller coaster.

    Everyone was affected from the richest to the poorest. There are many that changed from "well off" to relatively poor and even broke, but they were the ones chasing the quick buck.

    I was in Nevada at the time, and saw all my neighbors with new boats, RV's and taking fancy vacations - and no equity left. And then they panicked and walked out on their mortgages to lose it all.

    The other side was people that had recently bought at inflated prices without chasing a quick flip, and then sold out / sold short - because of their own short-sightedness and lost it all. Selling in 2009/2010 and not realizing that by 2015 the market would have recovered and instead of owning their problem and just sticking with it - decided to bail out. They lost a lot too, but I look at these as "flakes" that walked out on their mortgages.

    Instead, I took the opportunity to refi to a 15yr and no cash out. My house has recovered about 90% and is back on track, and my equity is well recovered, and while not at the peak "bubble" levels, it has certainly recovered to a reasonable appreciation level.

    I also took the opportunity to buy a second home in 2010 that someone had fixed up and bailed on. It's at about 90% of the peak "bubble" value right now.

    Had most of the families that sold short in panic and accepted foreclosure because they were underwater just held on and owned their responsibility - they'd have all been better off. By the time they add up the money spent on rent, the loss on paper, the penalties, the destruction of their credit record and upheaval of their families, I think most are worse off for bailing - and they should be. They screwed everyone else up that was doing things correctly.

    I call all of this "ready, FIRE.....aim" syndrome. Nobody bothers to aim anymore, and shoots from the hip in reactive panic. It works in Hollywood Westerns, not usually in real life.

    In short, most people suffered from self-induced problems making it worse.

    Those of us that took the conservative investment approach, had a rainy day fund, and were cautiously opportunistic did quite well.

    For the last 3 years, I've had my old neighbor paying my mortgage in my first home. He panicked, sold short after taking out a huge equity loan, and lost everything. Ruined his credit, his nest egg, and had to find a place to rent. I had no idea he had lived 6 doors down from me until my rental management company told me where he had moved from. He still has his boat though, sitting in the driveway of my home. :) Do I feel sorry for him? A bit, but not too much. He made his decisions just like I did, and chose to over-extend.

    Moral of the story... Sheep will follow the herd, right to the slaughter house. Look beyond the herd and find your own path to freedom.
     
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  14. chascat

    chascat Well-Known Member

    I totally agree with most of your thoughts except for one major item in that the hardest hit were the working class with families, mortgage payments, and a lost job. These situations numbered in the 10s of millions nationwide and affected all but the most wealthy areas of the country. The majority of the people took large losses, but that wealth was only on paper anyway and didn,t exist in the first place. There,s not a lot of room for error for the people with poor financial balance today. The lending policies in practice were fundamentally flawed and responsible for most of the collapse. For a very short time, banking policies were monitored, but I see now that the major banks, in order to stay liquid, have returned to their former tactics. The new borrowers need to know and understand the situations they,re in and have a survival plan for the future. As you mentioned, a lot of people are overextending their means without a rainy day cushion for future financial turmoil. It,s amazing to me that people either forgot or simply don,t care about what happened 8 short years ago. Some will never learn.
     
  15. Brett_in_Sacto

    Brett_in_Sacto Well-Known Member

    I do disagree with this part. Nobody forced anyone to go into these things. They made it easy to "hang yourself" but there are many policies that allow this to happen - to this day.

    The policies weren't responsible, it was the people that exploited them.

    Caveat Emptor to me. Today's society has become too reliant on government safety nets and political mulligans. The ones that are caught in the crossfire are generally the ones that haven't done anything to deserve the punishment or burden of the failure. As a nation, we all got screwed because of the choices of the few that were able to walk away - and then government policies that gave them benefits after the fact are to blame for creating another false security blanket and letting people know that someone else will pay for their failure.

    My only solace was being able to go out after the fallout and buy another house dirt cheap. As a taxpayer I got screwed pretty bad, but I was able to take advantage of the collective misfortune to get back on track.
     
  16. chascat

    chascat Well-Known Member

    I know what you mean... In about 2004 a home builder friend of mine was building a few homes a year for an investor. The investor would rent the homes, then borrow a second against them, go back to the builder, and repeat this process over and over again. In about 2007, I met this guy and be boasted he was up to 21 homes in inventory, all borrowed to the max and rented. 3 years later, the builder told me he was stuck with 3 new homes under const. for the same guy, the escrows all fell apart, and the values of all the other homes were upside down. The economy in this area went down as well, the renters on most of the homes lost their jobs and stopped paying him rents. As of late, I heard, the guy went bankrupt on the whole mess and gave it all back to the banks. This is a prime example of the greed and exploitation by both the banks and the investor. When these mistakes happen, it filters back into the system and we all pay the price.
     
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  17. Brett_in_Sacto

    Brett_in_Sacto Well-Known Member

    These are the policies - and especially politicians that allowed it - that need to change (or be buried altogether in a hole in the desert!)

    You have the right to be stupid and greedy, you don't have the right to put the burden of failure on others.
     
    -jeffB likes this.
  18. -jeffB

    -jeffB Greshams LEO Supporter

    Privatizing profit and socializing risk. Isn't that what it's all about now?
     
  19. FryDaddyJr

    FryDaddyJr Junior Member


    you mean like going without insurance and then going to the ER for free?
     
  20. chascat

    chascat Well-Known Member

    All that ended up happening was a scolding by Congress followed by a $3 trillion bailout.
     
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  21. Bman33

    Bman33 Well-Known Member

    I predict the premiums on 2017 ASE's will go down eventually. They are way to high around the board right now.
     
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