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<p>[QUOTE="World Colonial, post: 2454634, member: 78153"]I don't pay as close attention to the financial markets as I did in the past, but when I did, I also read up on historical events and prices. The information available to me indicates that there is little correlation between prices and events such as the Brexit vote. It is or may be evident on a short term chart but not otherwise. In many if not most instances, someone could know the events in advance and not only would they not make money, they would lose it if they acted with the conventional wisdom.</p><p><br /></p><p>To give you one example, there were two major bear markets in equities in the space of ten years, between 2000 and 2010. Looking at the long term charts available to me of the Dow and its predecessors, it last occurred roughly between 1919 and 1932, slightly more than 10 years. This was prior to "enlightened economic thinking" when this outcome was supposedly "impossible" and that's all I will say about it.</p><p><br /></p><p>With metals, inflation supposedly is correlated with higher prices. Well, since 1980, that hasn't exactly worked out, has it? The RATE of inflation is lower but aggregate prices have increased by what, three times or more? This while silver is about 65% LOWER in nominal terms and gold only somewhat more than 50% higher. Despite this abysmal performance, gold remains historically overpriced versus all other commodities, many (if not most) other goods, many wages and many services. Silver much less so but I'm not aware that it is historically underpriced either.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="World Colonial, post: 2454634, member: 78153"]I don't pay as close attention to the financial markets as I did in the past, but when I did, I also read up on historical events and prices. The information available to me indicates that there is little correlation between prices and events such as the Brexit vote. It is or may be evident on a short term chart but not otherwise. In many if not most instances, someone could know the events in advance and not only would they not make money, they would lose it if they acted with the conventional wisdom. To give you one example, there were two major bear markets in equities in the space of ten years, between 2000 and 2010. Looking at the long term charts available to me of the Dow and its predecessors, it last occurred roughly between 1919 and 1932, slightly more than 10 years. This was prior to "enlightened economic thinking" when this outcome was supposedly "impossible" and that's all I will say about it. With metals, inflation supposedly is correlated with higher prices. Well, since 1980, that hasn't exactly worked out, has it? The RATE of inflation is lower but aggregate prices have increased by what, three times or more? This while silver is about 65% LOWER in nominal terms and gold only somewhat more than 50% higher. Despite this abysmal performance, gold remains historically overpriced versus all other commodities, many (if not most) other goods, many wages and many services. Silver much less so but I'm not aware that it is historically underpriced either.[/QUOTE]
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