Stop buying silver

You are welcome to buy or sell as you wish, but just current financial happenings make decisions very short termed. For instance, Hedge funds here and internationally are accumulating USD ( 48 billion so far from a couple of sources) as they see a further strengthening vs the world currencies. If Swizterland's referendum Sunday to buy 1500 tonnes of gold in the next few years is not passed, it indicates a turn around in the beliefs of the Swiss who have been predominantly hard asset. If it is , gold may have a little of a life, but valued in a strengthening USD will mean that POG will have little reaction. The price of oil dropped about $5 a barrel yesterday as the Saudis try to undercut shale oil in the Americas to the deepening deficit of the smaller oil nations. People base their idea of the US economy mainly on how they are affected, but if you think it is still in 2008, it is not. Quantitative easing did its job, much to the chagrin of most of the world who just now are starting their own QE ( Japan, EU). I would save every USD you have for a couple of years before buying PM in quantities greater than a few % of your total savings. Happy Thanksgiving to All!

 

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"...kinda bent, but we ain't breakin,' in the long run..."

In the Long Run-Eagles

 

You have been at it for a long part of the cycle, but this seems to be a serious scenario. Rather like a superstorm where several large situations are joining together, and if they do, it could be quite a while before it corrects. The ones who left before the superstorm hit survived better than those determined to stay the tide. As I remember the Swiss were the last to give up backing their money by precious metal, and to leave it up to a referendum vote instead of just doing it, is significant. If the vote goes ~no~ to buying 1500 tonnes of gold, watch the price of gold dump, taking silver along with it.... for an extended period of time.

The good news is that now gas is affordable enough to make up some difference for probably the same length of time. 99% of the US will be cheering the lower gas price and caring little for the decrease in the price of PM except for that melted into jewelry.

 

I agree. Silver will fall even further. You cant stop the trend.

 

I was buying silver in 1999 pretty close to spot so I'm not losing anything. I'm not losing interest either when it pays 0.00nothing%. And I'm not "missing out" on the stockmarket. I have nothing but seething contempt for what passes today for "capitalism." So there's little point pretending I'm going to sell my stack and buy stocks without puking all over myself.

I think I'll just stay in the boat. At least it's an idea I can illustrate to myself with a crayon.

"Never invest in an idea you can't illustrate with a crayon." Peter Lynch

 

Maybe silver will go down into the low teens. I thought we were at a bottom, but there's a bottom below...

 

The dollar may get stronger still from world events. Apparently PM Cameron is tired of handing out welfare checks to every dreg stumbling into England and demanding their benefits. He said if the EU doesn't fix the immigration problem he may lead the fight for England to leave the EU.

And then there's Germany who apparently doesn't want to "get with the program" and carry Humpty-Dumpty on their back. Germany is a classic example of expecting the hardest workers to work even harder to make up for the pet rocks.

England and Germany are the two heavy weights and they don't sound too happy. How can so much uncertainty about the EU and Euro not send currency traders into a currency they perceive as more stable?

But I'm still not getting out of the boat.

 

Why are you quoting one of the greatest stock investors of all time when you say you'd be "puking all over myself" if you bought stocks? FWIW, you absolutely can buy good stocks--i.e., shares of (hopefully) excellent businesses, w/o "puking all over yourself".

You want to puke all over yourself? Go back to 1979, & buy a ----load of silver at $25, & gold at $800, then watch it all crash. (I was not only cleaning up puke; I had to throw out a few pairs of soiled pants--hah.) And then watch PM stagnate at low levels for 20-some years.

BTW; the guy who bought silver at even $10 or $15 back in the late '70's has lost a ton in purchasing power by now. Has anyone else noticed that?

 

I quoted Peter Lynch because he's the one who said it. Was that too obvious?

 

Great. Wish he would finally take his UK out of our EU, or allow the British to vote, but he seems to be better at talking than at acting. As for Switzerland, all three initiatives, including the one about the gold reserves, have apparently been voted down today. We do not have the official results though.

Christian

 

If England does leave the EU wouldn't that put more burden on the remaining stronger countries? I'm not even sure if France can still be called a strong country with their sovereign debt and socialist president.

What in your estimate is the true sentiments of Germans towards the EU? Seems like there was a lot of anti-EU, nationalist and separatist activity all over Europe this year. Do Germans sense themselves getting pulled under be the weaker countries?

I just can't picture the EU surviving if Germany leaves. At the same, I can't picture Germans sacrificing themselves for some greek's government pension.

Is the EU going survive? Tell us what's really going on over there. All we get here is: "all the news that fits, we print."

 

What do I know. The Germans would of course not love being cash cows for others, but equally they may not like the idea of being abused as arguments against the European Union, by people who would rather see Europe as it was many years ago - a bunch of (more or less) small countries that from time to time fight wars. But this is not a political forum. In Switzerland the gold initiative was far from being successful today: About 77 percent of the voters were against it, and in none of the cantons (sort of states) it got a majority, see here (in German). The other two initiatives, about a drastic limitation of immigration, and higher taxes for people living but not working in Switzerland, were not successful either.

Christian

 

I really don't know if it's a good idea to buy silver right now or not. After the prices we had it seems cheap to me. I may just be following my old habit of buying whenever the price falls below $20. Maybe the new normal is way below that. I started buying at $4, so I bought all the way up to around $20, then stopped, and have only resumed recently. I got some US coinage at 14 x face yesterday. It seemed a reasonable amount over spot, so I bought it.

 

I just snapped up a whole bunch of various Commonwealth proof sterling silver crowns, all 28.28g .8411 oz ASW, every one in the $35 range. These coins used sell in the $50 range. They make a nice stack in all their cases.

Also, I found a string of Cayman proof sets all underpriced in the $50-$60 range from an excellent dealer that was previously local to me before I moved out of south Florida three months ago. These Cayman proof sets were stubbornly in the $80+ range several months back. I am very happy with all my purchases.

 

We may have to stop buying silver soon. The price is going straight up this morning. What's happening?

 

I wouldn't declare the bloodletting over until silver holds $20 for a month. Before that, I'd say it's all just pin action on the long way down.

 

I am waiting for a close over $17, and having it hold there for a while before I resume being confident.

 

"I quoted Peter Lynch because he's the one who said it. Was that too obvious?"
longnine009

Yes, we know he said it. But why is someone who hates stocks so much quoting great stock market investors? Is it not obvious that there's something kind of odd about that?

 

My average silver buying price is in the low 20's so I'm not throwing a fit. I'm actually loving the rebound on prices. Don't know how long it'll take but eventually it could go over $30-$35 again.

Secondly, not all my silver is bullion. I'm very young so my Morgan Dollars, if let's say I hold onto these for 50+ years their value will likely not go along with bullion price as they age more.

 

In 50 years they may be more valuable to melt down into silver bullets, once the werewolves take over the world from the zombies