Message:

<p>[QUOTE=&quot;Smitty, post: 1353804, member: 35044&quot;]It is definitely not a game for the average guy. It isn&#039;t even a game for non-pros ... in the short-term ... unless you&#039;re playing Level II momentum. You&#039;re absolutely right that the pros get the information before we do. But in the medium- or long-term you can figure out a few things. Look how often the majority of pros and economists are wrong in the medium- and long-term. From my viewing and reading I&#039;d guess that back in January 2011 80+ percent of pros and economists were calling for 3.5+% GDP in the 2nd half of 2011. Some were saying 4.5-5.0%. They were wrong.</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>I mean, at a higher level look how many here are buying gold because they understand that the government is cooking the books. I started buying gold and silver and shorting home builders back in 2007 because it just didn&#039;t make sense to me that housing prices were doubling, but wages weren&#039;t moving. I started reading books about bubbles, noticed how every Joe Blow was flipping houses, and read articles about how lenders were offloading mortgages and retaining all the profits, but none of the risks. I took note of all the &quot;0% interest&quot; offers on the radio. I didn&#039;t necessarily know the intricate details of what was going on, but I knew it didn&#039;t make financial sense. That&#039;s a roundabout way of understanding that the books are being cooked. You don&#039;t know how, but you know it can&#039;t last. I only wish I hadn&#039;t been so cautious and had shorted a lot more. </p><p><br /></p><p>That&#039;s at a macro level. At a company level you&#039;re generally going to have to be able to read financial reports, understand a company&#039;s market and know where to access information that can lead you in the right direction. You&#039;re going to have to understand things like &quot;goodwill&quot; and understand why it&#039;s being applied. I took a couple of years of accounting in college and I&#039;ve read a few books on what to be watchful of in financial reports. Like I said, it requires diligence. The average person isn&#039;t willing to commit to that level of diligence.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

Your name or email address:

Do you already have an account?

• No, create an account now.
• Yes, my password is:
• Forgot your password?

Stay logged in