I didn't fire my broker because took I over in 2001 and have done it myself. Nope, I have not always sold at the height, nor bought at the very bottom. What i do know is what I have, and what I have made, I keep 90%. I dont have to worry if the market falls that I need to consult anyone, nor get on the phone. It is much easier than digging thru a 401k site too. Those site are deliberately made to be confusing, to get you to throw in the towel and LET THEM DO IT for you. The Chart below should tell you all you need to know. Also, understand that 90% of the time when we reach a top like this, the FED rushes to raise rates. Usually up too 6,7% and then allows it too fall to 2,3%. This way they can control the economy, bad corps. are bankrupt, good corps. move on. This no longer happens under Powell and since 2008 bailout. We are at the bitter end. They have no choice but too continue leaving rates low. Yes, you hear news of a 10 year bond going to 1.6%. But it will never pass 3 and the FED fund rate will never be over 3% again. It cant because the Country has too much debt. No ones knows the outcome, what happens when you print endless fiat paper money ? History says one thing, the FED and are Government want you to ignore it "on their watch" Obama's, Trumps, and now Bidens. (Maestro, berneke, yellen, powell) and each of the treasurers. At 30T x 5% interest each year the govern. pays 1.5T in interest payments alone. They will bring in 3.8T in revenue 2021. Can we pay 37% of our total tax receipts in 2021 to interest. This is now why MSM and FOX never ever mention the real dilemma, our real situation. Or other facts like we really dont have 5G here. They have it in China where they are working on 6G, we still dont have 5G. Just a fake Pretend 5G for a couple of minute a day. It is all propaganda and all to keep the illusion going...
Loans that don't have to be paid back or are below market value to keep a company from going belly are bailouts.
Yes, to the UAW and AFL-CIO....to bankrupt cities like Detroit and other mismanaged entities like Chicago and Illinois. In a Chapter 11 bankruptcy, the equity holders -- the stock holders -- get wiped out. What happens to the "equity holders" in these cities and states, the ones who have been running them for the last 75-100 years ? The "owners" of the political and cultural establishments ? The dominant political ruling class ? Do they suffer a wipeout ? Or a 100% bailout to just keep on doing what they've been doing the last 75 years.
There are tons of problems with the Shiller P/E, starting with the GAAP vs. Operating earnings dichotomy and adding in foreign earnings of U.S. corporations (5% in the 1950's; 45% today). I keep an eye on the Shiller P/E but it's as relevant as the Odd-Lot indicator for timing the market.
