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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;-jeffB, post: 5375211, member: 27832&quot;]I wouldn&#039;t be a bit surprised to see BTC hit $100K this year. I&#039;d be even less surprised to see it drop below $10K.</p><p><br /></p><p>It&#039;s easy to see the upside potential -- the supply is strictly limited, and the more popular it gets, the more you&#039;ll have to pay to get some.</p><p><br /></p><p>Here&#039;s what I see for downside threats:</p><p><br /></p><p>1) A catastrophic attack on the system. The math behind blockchain itself is completely solid as far as I know, but any <i>appearance</i> that wallets are being hijacked or spoofed will cause a crash. I don&#039;t know how to evaluate the probability of this.</p><p><br /></p><p>2) The rise of competitive cryptocurrencies. Sure, there&#039;ll never be more than 21-odd-million BTC -- but if people are also accepting Etherium and Litecoin and Dogecoin (much serious!) and a dozen other newcomers, that <i>effectively</i> dilutes it. These competitors exist today.</p><p><br /></p><p>3) Heavy-handed regulation. If regulations make it too hard for big exchanges like Coinbase (or entities like PayPal) to deal with it, I don&#039;t think person-to-person transactions will be enough to sustain its value. I know governments are <i>highly</i> motivated to make this happen. I find it unwise in general to bet against them.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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