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Message:: [QUOTE="V. Kurt Bellman, post: 2942692, member: 71723"]Apparently, I need to repeat myself. The theory "this time is different" is NEVER TRUE. This is what asset bubbles graph like: <img src="https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/img/stages_bubble.png" class="bbCodeImage wysiwygImage" alt="" unselectable="on" /> [USER=76863]@baseball21[/USER] has ALREADY fallen for the "New Paradigm" phase in this chart. It's classic! We have just shifted into the initial "Denial" phase. This graph is NOT MY WORK! It is produced at Hofstra University. But I DID use this exact model to SUCCESSFULLY call the end of the great gold bull market of August 2011. It's PUBLIC RECORD that I did. How did I know? All asset bubbles behave similarly because the very same human emotions create all of them in the first instance, and those are NOT complicated or subtle emotions. They are "base", and I'm presently having a "ball" and I'm WAAAAY over "21". Next? Yup, the "Bull trap". Sit, watch, and wait. It's coming. In 2011, I got out of gold PRECISELY at the "New Paradigm" point, but only got out of silver at "Return to 'normal'". The next time you're tempted to dismiss macroeconomic analysis and side with the Austrian School (...), remember this post.[/QUOTE]