So... gold at $1900

Let me ask you something Jeff!!! What caused that tremendous drop in coin values in 1989???

One of the reasons was investors covering their A**es from the big stock market crash... investors liquidated huge coin positions. That.... and FIGURE B- the SS Central America shipwreck was found... which destroyed coin values... 5100 1857s $20 were recovered destroying that coin. multiple others... everything all together created a perfect bubble. You look at the stock market... Realestate market, most markets have not only exceeded the chart you are showing above for all time highs and all time lows... and other markets have corrected these levels. broke through them, broke below... etc. Rare coins I would say are a lot less volatile... more of an easy moving non managing asset that slowly gain tremendous value... your NOT--- NOT looking to make millions on rare coins.... YOUR protecting the millions you have!!! Insurance!

 

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Sure -- any asset will insure against some events. But are you quite sure that there won't be another big coin find (hello, Saddle Ridge), or another change in laws that will cause people to unload their coin holdings?

If we ignore the big run-up and around 1990 -- just draw a straight line from 1982's level to 1995's -- I still see a curve that's flattened out, failing even to keep up with inflation over the last 20 years.

For any market movement that goes against your expectations or wishes, you can always find some external factor to blame. That's part of the hindsight game. Again, though, foresight is a darn sight harder.

 

well... you have a good point Jeff... there are hoards randomly found... the nice thing is most of them have been found...

Saddle Ridge find was a large find on a small scale. They had the one finest known 66s no motto $20 i think if I remember right... this isnt going to really effect the values of those... just at the top of the tree it might fluctuate being the finest known... but when a piece or two are found...not much is going to happen except make people know about it and have it gain more interest and demand!

or in the SS Central America case.... another 75x 1857s $20's were found... this isnt going to do anything to the already large number of 5109 coins pedigreed... the 75 will be probably worn and in various grades.

This is also why you want to have a nice collection... if one date goes down others go up... look at the 1854s $20 in the last 12 years!!!