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<p>[QUOTE="Juan Blanco, post: 1665234, member: 41665"]This is a useful line of inquiry. (Not addressed by my OP; but still a very GOOD QUESTION.) </p><p><br /></p><p>To answer this precisely, look at (compare) five years of Spot Prices for other commodities: <a href="http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3023-cashprices.html" target="_blank" class="externalLink ProxyLink" data-proxy-href="http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3023-cashprices.html" rel="nofollow">http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3023-cashprices.html</a></p><p><br /></p><p>In my opinion, it's enough for retail investors to compare the 5-year standard deviation stat (or semi-standard deviation; aka semivariance) for commodity ETPs. </p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>CAVEATS: Bear in mind, that's price volatility for investor interest in the financial instrument, NOT 'Spot Price.' Also: WATCH THE PERIOD DATES, sometimes it's last month or last quarter. And there are other stats to compare (apples-to-apples) but always <i>use the same site(s) </i>and don't assume that different sources will arithmetically calc "stddev" the same way! Obv, use same-same USD or GBP funds too.</p><p><br /></p><p>Perusing this list, I say that YES, the SLV fund (ETF) seems to be on the riskier end of the volatility spectrum, and Silver is probably more volatile than most other commodities (in this period) YES.</p><p><br /></p><p>[TABLE="width: 414"]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="class: xl69, width: 303, bgcolor: transparent"]<u><b><font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">FUND & Ticker </span></font></b></u></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl68, width: 110, bgcolor: transparent"]<b><font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">3Yr Std Dev (MStar) </span></font></b></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl68, width: 139, bgcolor: transparent"]<b><u><font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">200 Day Volatility (ETFdb)</span></font></u></b></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<i><font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">UBS E-TRACS CMCI Livestock TR ETN (UBC)</span></font></i></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">12.17</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">18.32%</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<i><font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">iPath DJ-UBS Livestock TR Sub-Idx ETN (COW)</span></font></i></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">13.97</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">8.04%</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<i><font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)</span></font></i></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">18.55</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">11.34%</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<i><font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">United States Diesel-Heating Oil (UHN)</span></font></i></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">22.6</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">17.33%</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<i><font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">UBS E-TRACS CMCI Agriculture TR ETN (UAG)</span></font></i></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">24.04</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">11.73%</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<i><font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (PPLT)</span></font></i></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">24.53</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">16.68%</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<i><font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJC)</span></font></i></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">27.5</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">14.78%</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<i><font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (PALL)</span></font></i></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">29.43</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">23.58%</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<i><font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">iPath DJ-UBS Cocoa TR Sub-Idx ETN (NIB)</span></font></i></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">29.87</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">20.84%</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<i><font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">iPath DJ-UBS Grains TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJG)</span></font></i></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">30.63</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">15.29%</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<i><font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">iPath DJ-UBS Coffee TR Sub-Idx ETN (JO)</span></font></i></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">32.46</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">27.73%</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<i><font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">United States Natural Gas (UNG)</span></font></i></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">34.37</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">32.97%</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<i><font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">iPath DJ-UBS Nickel TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJN)</span></font></i></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">34.86</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">24.32%</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<i><font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">iPath DJ-UBS Cotton TR Sub-Idx ETN (BAL)</span></font></i></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">35.68</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">17.99%</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<i><font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">iPath DJ-UBS Sugar TR Sub-Idx ETN (SGG)</span></font></i></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">41.19</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">21.58%</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[TR]</p><p>[TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"]<i><font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">iShares Silver Trust (SLV)</span></font></i></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">42.87</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"]<font size="2"><span style="color: #000000">20.75%</span></font></p><p>[/TD]</p><p>[/TR]</p><p>[/TABLE][/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Juan Blanco, post: 1665234, member: 41665"]This is a useful line of inquiry. (Not addressed by my OP; but still a very GOOD QUESTION.) To answer this precisely, look at (compare) five years of Spot Prices for other commodities: [URL]http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3023-cashprices.html[/URL] In my opinion, it's enough for retail investors to compare the 5-year standard deviation stat (or semi-standard deviation; aka semivariance) for commodity ETPs. CAVEATS: Bear in mind, that's price volatility for investor interest in the financial instrument, NOT 'Spot Price.' Also: WATCH THE PERIOD DATES, sometimes it's last month or last quarter. And there are other stats to compare (apples-to-apples) but always [I]use the same site(s) [/I]and don't assume that different sources will arithmetically calc "stddev" the same way! Obv, use same-same USD or GBP funds too. Perusing this list, I say that YES, the SLV fund (ETF) seems to be on the riskier end of the volatility spectrum, and Silver is probably more volatile than most other commodities (in this period) YES. [TABLE="width: 414"] [TR] [TD="class: xl69, width: 303, bgcolor: transparent"][U][B][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]FUND & Ticker [/COLOR][/SIZE][/B][/U] [/TD] [TD="class: xl68, width: 110, bgcolor: transparent"][B][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]3Yr Std Dev (MStar) [/COLOR][/SIZE][/B] [/TD] [TD="class: xl68, width: 139, bgcolor: transparent"][B][U][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]200 Day Volatility (ETFdb)[/COLOR][/SIZE][/U][/B] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][I][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]UBS E-TRACS CMCI Livestock TR ETN (UBC)[/COLOR][/SIZE][/I] [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]12.17[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]18.32%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][I][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]iPath DJ-UBS Livestock TR Sub-Idx ETN (COW)[/COLOR][/SIZE][/I] [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]13.97[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]8.04%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][I][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)[/COLOR][/SIZE][/I] [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]18.55[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]11.34%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][I][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]United States Diesel-Heating Oil (UHN)[/COLOR][/SIZE][/I] [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]22.6[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]17.33%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][I][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]UBS E-TRACS CMCI Agriculture TR ETN (UAG)[/COLOR][/SIZE][/I] [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]24.04[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]11.73%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][I][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]ETFS Physical Platinum Shares (PPLT)[/COLOR][/SIZE][/I] [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]24.53[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]16.68%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][I][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJC)[/COLOR][/SIZE][/I] [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]27.5[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]14.78%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][I][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]ETFS Physical Palladium Shares (PALL)[/COLOR][/SIZE][/I] [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]29.43[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]23.58%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][I][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]iPath DJ-UBS Cocoa TR Sub-Idx ETN (NIB)[/COLOR][/SIZE][/I] [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]29.87[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]20.84%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][I][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]iPath DJ-UBS Grains TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJG)[/COLOR][/SIZE][/I] [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]30.63[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]15.29%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][I][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]iPath DJ-UBS Coffee TR Sub-Idx ETN (JO)[/COLOR][/SIZE][/I] [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]32.46[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]27.73%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][I][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]United States Natural Gas (UNG)[/COLOR][/SIZE][/I] [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]34.37[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]32.97%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][I][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]iPath DJ-UBS Nickel TR Sub-Idx ETN (JJN)[/COLOR][/SIZE][/I] [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]34.86[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]24.32%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][I][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]iPath DJ-UBS Cotton TR Sub-Idx ETN (BAL)[/COLOR][/SIZE][/I] [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]35.68[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]17.99%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][I][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]iPath DJ-UBS Sugar TR Sub-Idx ETN (SGG)[/COLOR][/SIZE][/I] [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]41.19[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]21.58%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [TR] [TD="class: xl65, bgcolor: transparent"][I][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]iShares Silver Trust (SLV)[/COLOR][/SIZE][/I] [/TD] [TD="class: xl66, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]42.87[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [TD="class: xl67, bgcolor: transparent, align: right"][SIZE=2][COLOR=#000000]20.75%[/COLOR][/SIZE] [/TD] [/TR] [/TABLE][/QUOTE]
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Silver's DOWNSIDE, by-the-numbers (2008-2012)
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