Reply to Thread

Message:: [QUOTE="Juan Blanco, post: 1663703, member: 41665"]It's annoying to read stuff like "Silver's crashing!" on a modestly down-day. So I thought I'd post some Ag data from the last 5 Years (2008-2012) as context, general information and helpful insight for Price-of-Silver (POS) peeps. Of 1,262 trading sessions, I counted 585 Down Days (that's 46.35% of the time.) With a threshold of < -0.15% and > $0.03 loss, the average down-day was -$0.48 and -2.02% avg LOSS. The median down-day was -$0.30 and -1.51% avg LOSS. Conclusion? There are alot more down-days for POS than folks imagine, and ~-1.5% loss isn't uncommon or serious worry. On the contrary, losing days are totally normal. Of 1,262 trading sessions, the Worst 5% (Biggest Down Days) are hypothetically 1:20 sessions; imagine about once-a-month, but in reality 'very bad' days cluster together. How bad is that loss? In the Worst 5%, the avg 'very bad' down-day was -$2.63 and -7.66% avg LOSS. The median 'very bad' down-day was -$2.35 and -7.34% avg LOSS. Conclusion? Don't freak out when POS drops - $0.75 -$1.50 or when Ag falls ~-2% to -4% in a single day; that's fairly typical at this POS level. So what are the absolute WORST days, really big 1-day drops in the last 5 years? Basically, when POS drops -7.5% and/or loses > -$2.50. There have been only 6 days in the last 5 years with double-digit losses; from current POS, we'd be looking for a Dollar-loss of more than -$ 3.25 for a 'very bad' day. Folks, we have NOT seen anything like that since 1 March 2012, over a year ago. To date, the worst day of the last year was over two months ago, 4 January 2013, -5.14%. No big whup! The slow and steady (incremental) retracement notwithstanding, there's no basis for any alarmist "Silver's Crashing!" posts until we see some REAL volatility reappear. We're waiting on that, still... I have previously suggested waiting to BUY (more) Ag until April-July, because I do believe that we will/must see more big down days before the interim bottom is in. I do expect we'll see 3 or 4 such "big" down days (look for -5%, -6%, -7% daily declines) eventually, before $22.-25./ozt is close at hand. I think THAT will be a great entry-point (for someone newly allocating to Ag) or an add-on BUY target for prudent allocators. This is just my opinion, staring at the Ag #s. You buy Silver, you EXPECT to see the POS fall and rise alot. Don't worry about it. :smile[/QUOTE]

Create my FREE Account!

Log in or Sign up

Reply to Thread

Useful Searches