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<p>[QUOTE="Morgan1878, post: 1173808, member: 17869"]With respect to the drop in oil prices today, I don't think it's so much a reduction in the threat of inflation as it is a perceived notion that the price of oil was out of sync with global demand. However, if, like the U.S. the fundamentals (national debt, overuse of printing press) suggest your currency will continue to weaken, this abatement of an inflationary threat could best be viewed as short term relief. </p><p><br /></p><p>Over the longer term, it is likely that the Euro will likely weaken against the dollar due to Euroland sovereign debt problems. However, there are plenty of emerging countries that have currencies that will appreciate against the dollar and the Euro because their balance sheets are so much stronger.</p><p><br /></p><p>If you're competing with stronger economies for oil and commodities with a dollar that continues to weaken, eventually you'll pay more even if demand for the commodity is static.</p><p><br /></p><p>A fund manager I respect was asked a few weeks ago whether he favored PM's over oil as an inflation hedge. His answer was that he didn't favor either one because both would work equally well. He was saying that PM's follow the price of oil.</p><p><br /></p><p>Of course, if you want to own the physical commodity, gold and silver take up a whole lot less space.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>
[QUOTE="Morgan1878, post: 1173808, member: 17869"]With respect to the drop in oil prices today, I don't think it's so much a reduction in the threat of inflation as it is a perceived notion that the price of oil was out of sync with global demand. However, if, like the U.S. the fundamentals (national debt, overuse of printing press) suggest your currency will continue to weaken, this abatement of an inflationary threat could best be viewed as short term relief. Over the longer term, it is likely that the Euro will likely weaken against the dollar due to Euroland sovereign debt problems. However, there are plenty of emerging countries that have currencies that will appreciate against the dollar and the Euro because their balance sheets are so much stronger. If you're competing with stronger economies for oil and commodities with a dollar that continues to weaken, eventually you'll pay more even if demand for the commodity is static. A fund manager I respect was asked a few weeks ago whether he favored PM's over oil as an inflation hedge. His answer was that he didn't favor either one because both would work equally well. He was saying that PM's follow the price of oil. Of course, if you want to own the physical commodity, gold and silver take up a whole lot less space.[/QUOTE]
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