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<p>[QUOTE=&quot;medoraman, post: 1173410, member: 26302&quot;]I just wanted to post something here. Many of you have read my postings about silver, and many have read my &quot;disagreements&quot; with passantgard and others. What is happening right now is the basis of my disagreement with his model, and many others. Any model, like his, that showed the lowest return possible of an asset as a positive return is to me a failed project. Is someone is so convinced that an asset cannot go down, then they are not truly taking into consideration all possibilities. I am not saying the silver decline will have to continue, or that silver cannot hit his $130 value long term. ANYTHING is possible in human economics, probable maybe not, but possible.</p><p><br /></p><p>Whenever you have someone who shows you a complicated financial calc showing how they &quot;prove&quot; something, just stop and look at their assumptions. If they assume the worst something can go is still better than holding cash, then you know their model is fundamentally flawed without going one step further. The value of anything ALWAYS has the possibility of going down, and the optimists almost always overlook that fact. Today you are seeing that it IS possible for silver to decline, something that his graph and many others never allow for. If decline is not allowed for, then any financial model is worthless, and if turned in to me or any financial professor would immediately get a failing grade.</p><p><br /></p><p>I am not saying silver will stay down, not claiming I was right, just pointing out right now that anything is possible, and everyone needs to always keep that in their mind when looking at &quot;predictions&quot;. I felt bad for the conversations here with Passantgard, and it wasn&#039;t his graphs that made me so mad, since I have seen similar items before, (especially by overoptimistic grad students, and before that overoptimistic dotcom advocates).</p><p><br /></p><p>Just wanted to get that off my chest. Sorry for the rant.</p><p><br /></p><p>Chris</p><p><br /></p><p>Edit: Oh yeah, great big hug for all of the group here, even Passantgard if he is still around. We can all disagree, but hopefully we keep an open mind to allow for new opinions and new ideas to sink in. When I came here I thought $20 silver was overpriced, but now I think it is a fair historical price, so I changed my mind.[/QUOTE]</p><p><br /></p>

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