Silver Will Not Top $20 Again Homies

Apr 24 2014 10:30AM NY Time
Bid/Ask 19.65
19.75
Low/High 18.86
20.02

So it looks like it took you about 30 seconds to be wrong.....

Don't be upset, jsut don't argue about something you don't understand, and pick your pants up, you look silly...and if you keep arguing, people will notice that you are walking funny too.

 

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The very first thing here, is that statement is not true. I guess it was exaggerated for effect or something but it is not accurate

Now of course we can agree on that the purchasing power has gone down considerably. The huge question here, a question that not a single anti-fiat currency guy has ever been able to answer is, Why in the World do you think that is a bad thing?

 

The public is starting to think silver is finished, kaput. So it's probably getting close to the time when it will start rising.

 

I'm only pointing out that the perma bulls like to say that silver is being exhausted and may one day be "extinct." Sounds great if you're hoping to make millions owning silver, but the fact of the matter is that if we run out of silver through traditional extraction methods, and we still have a desire/need for more silver, we'll simply turn to other extraction methods. Necessity is the mother of invention.

The other alternative is that we'll find a substitute for silver altogether. We didn't quit using whale oil in our lamps because we ran out of whales...we found a cheaper alternative - ie, petroleum.

The bottom line is that if anyone stacking silver thinks they're going to get rich based solely on the notion that we're running out of the white stuff, they're going to grow very old waiting for it to happen.

 

Predictions are boring and useless. Any fool can make a prediction. In order to make them interesting, why don't we add a consequence to making a prediction. For example, if you are wrong, you donate $1,000 to Cointalk or you donate a kidney and so on and so on. That's when predictions will become worthwhile and interesting.

If you are right, on the other hand, you get to keep your money and your kidney, but you also gain the admiration and respect of your Cointalk peers. I'm not sure that is a fair trade-off though.

 

I think what people are losing sight of is that this thread is titled "Silver will not go above $20".....I think anyone with half a brain will agree that is not possible.....BECAUSE IT JUST DID 2 MINS AGO.

ANNNNNND....I'M DONE.

 

True, I love buynig when no one is talking about something. That is why I bought in the 90's, slowly acquiring. I wish I had the income I have now back then, but I put away what I could afford at the time. My basic investment tenet is to buy on weakness and count on reversion to the mean. Silver is priced today that I am not worried about it terribly, freeing my up to buy when I wasn't letting myself buy for a few years there, but I still do not view it as a steal.

 

Or people just dig up old threads on CT and see who was saying what. I will readily admit I was wrong when I first joined here, I didn't believe silver would spike up as much as it did.

OTOH, isn't what you describe Treehugger the market? The market is where people make predictions with real consequences, if they are wrong they lose real money.

 

I agree with you, MM. That is what happen in the markets. I was speaking, though, of the many, many predictions that are made here at Cointalk. People make mindless predictions and there is no consequence for being wrong. I was just saying it would be more interesting if there was a potential cost for prognostication.

 

You seem to be quite limited in your imagination as there are many reasons to have silver outside of an expectation that it will increase in value in the short term.

As fiatfiasco pointed out, you may already be wrong in your prediction. I will wait for a more substantial crossing of the $20 threshold (both bid and ask) before I chime in.

The funny thing is, I have silver that I bought when it was at $30/oz that I can still flip to my advantage, even if silver goes to $15/oz, or even $10/oz. I'll let you think about it for a bit before I let you know how I am able to do it.

 

You are looking at it backwards. Sure the quality of ore mined today is much lower in quality than it was 100 years ago, but why is that? Thge answer is really more efficeint mining techniches, rather than lower ore quality. Back then, you NEEDED much more pure ore to be able to extract it in a cost efficient manner. So if you took a cross section of all ore mined, it looks like there was just a whole bunch of high quality ore lying around. As mining techniques improved, miners started going after the lower quality ores, for the simple reason they could, so when you look at the average ore quality it appears to be going down, but that only reflects that miners are going after ore that would not have even been considered before. The over all ore quality remains generally the same. Now when you look at it in this light, the picture totally changes, and the available pool of silver is actually expanding since we can now go after silver that was previouly could not be mined.

 

True. This is the basis of the Iowa markets, making decisions having economic consequences. I was involved in this market both as a grad researcher and staff. You are 100% right people can spout off anything if there are no consequences, but as soon as money is involved they get a lot more pragmatic and serious.

Myself, I have simply viewed reputation as the consequence of predictions. Wildly predict $100 silver in 8 months and I view that predictor with much more skepticism, and hopefully others here do as well. I will readily admit when I was wrong on CT, I never thought silver would spike above $20 frankly. But I did more research and for a few years now have considered around $20 to effectively be in line with historical pricing for silver adjusting for inflation. I still believe that. Mike disagrees with me, thinking it will drift lower. I respect that opinion, its backed up with logic. I honestly love being proved wrong. That is the only way you learn is to keep an open mind and be open to be wrong. If someone predicting $50 silver wishes to go through their argument here, I promise not to bite. I will have some hard questions for them, I will challenge them, but I try to be fair. TBH I would love it if silver were $50, as I probably own more of it than many here.

Actually, concerning the language of discourse here, I promise to tone it down. getting upset serves no purpose, neither does snarky posts, so I will try to keep it on point.

 

I agree with Mike, in that there is no shortage of available silver, either in market or in the ground. I live within 50 miles of some of the richest gold and silver mines in the US and so far silver production hasn't reached a point where they'll even open the mines for 9 months a year. Total yearly production in most of these mines is gained in just 3 months, typically. That says a whole lot about availability.

 

Yes Chris, I do disagree with you, but not because of valuation. I believe it will drift lower because markets almost always seem to over shoot. I think it would be a rare occasion for that pendulum to swing and stop exactly at fair value, so I see the pendulum swinging too far.

Now for entry points into the market, I also think fair value is way too high for silver for two reasons. The first reason is the premium is a bear to overcome so it is best ot wait for cheap (under fair value) silver to more easily overcome this. The second reason is with a commodity, there is no growth or interest, so since the upside potential is much less to begin with, enrty points need to be more carefully chosen. While I would gladly buy an equity at fair value, not so much for a commodity.

Now in summary I also think that two reasons I outlined are also followed by a lot of bigger money type investors, which causes reluctance for these folks to get into silver too early, which creates even more opportunity for the overshoot I mentioned in the beginning. IMHO Patience is the key.

Entry point 14 USD.... Be there or be Be Square...

Also, if I am wrong, unlike our stacker friends, I will the first to trot out my old post and suck it up like a man.

Cheers,
Mike

 

Still waiting for a green box of ASE's to be less than 10k. If silver gets down to $16 and someone has a box for $9k it might be too much for me to resist, as much as I would like to believe it might drift down to $14.

Eh, we will see. At these prices, though, I don't feel bad buying world junk that I like again. I don't see a lot of longterm downside at current prices. Short term? Yeah maybe, but not long IMHO.

 

Absolutely not. Youre trying to tell us that mining companies walk around and go:

"hey look, that area has 'x' grams per cubic foot, and that area over there has 'x+3' grams per cubic foot, heck, we have really awesome machines nowadays, lets go after that low grade ore just because we can!"

No. 1000x No. I couldn't have possibly lost more respect for someone than I just did in your post.

The REALITY is, as people spread into or survey an area, they find deposits. COMMON SENSE says they go after the highest concentrations first. As humans have been doing this for 1000's of years, the highest concentrations have been depleted. I never said we cannot find anymore, but I did say it is finite. And if the price is going to stay the same or go down as our rapper buddy eminem claims, then the advances in technology would have to be EXPONENTIALLY advancing, every year, year after year. This is not the case. We are able to produce and sell it for roughly $20/oz with todays technology and AVAILABLE ore deposits. Which is alot more than when we were doing it for $5/oz.

I really should have stuck to my guns when I said that when this thread went off topic I was done. I think I just have this part of me that feels compelled to correct people who are screaming that the sky is GREEN.

 

Nopety Nope Nope. They cannot pull it out of the ground, even with their Star Trek Technology, for $20/oz sale on the open market. WHY WOULDNT THEY RUN THE THING YEAR ROUND IF IT IS PROFITABLE????

Gee, we could make money all year, but lets just do it for 3 months of the year...

They aren't because it isnt profitable at $20. Which indicates that they will be doing it when it crosses OVER $20, NOT BELOW IT.

Do any of you who disagree with this have above a 12th grade education? Thats not snarkiness, not being mean, its a real question.

 

I have many friends who work in these mines you claim to know so much about. They run 3 months a year because thats all the time they need to meet demand.

 

If it was that simple, then I'd agree with you.

However, it's more like this:

This area has x grams per cubic foot. In order to start mining there, we'll have to buy the mineral rights, submit an environmental impact study, form remediation and reclamation plans, get EPA approval, get state and local agencies to cooperate, pay impact fees, and then we still have to build an infrastructure to refine the ore, etc.

In the first year or two, we'll be at x grams per cu ft. In subsequent years, we'll see a lower yield, but given the overhead associated with opening a new mine, it would be more profitable to continue mining here for another ten years than it would be to open another mine that would have a higher yield per cubic foot.