Silver vs CPI vs Stock Market

Stock valuations are now VERY RICH and I am cautious entering 2022. It's looking like 2000, where the overall index is inflated and pricey, but many stocks aren't that expensive.

That's the thing with cap-weighted indices.

 

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I miss all the "silver going to $250-500! Soon!" videos and posts.

 

I have plenty of silver but I wont sell it till I need the money no matter what the price does between now and then.

 

It was a tough year for equities, especially the NASDAQ. Silver was one of the best investments in 2022 but still didn't keep up with inflation. I-bonds were the best place to be in 2022. Inflation was 6.8% through November. The S&P 500 was down 19.4%, NASDAQ was down 33.2%, and the Dow was down 8.8%. Silver was up 3.0% in 2022. Despite the poor showing of equities in 2022, it continues to be the best investment overtime (depending on the window). Below is the latest update for 2021.

Full dataset.



Chart (1980-2022)



Chart (1990-2022)



Chart (2000-2022)



Chart (2010-2022)

 

Toe eliminate timing bias or selection bias, you always use ROLLING time periods and see how various asset classes do over that time frame.

You are right about silver and PMs: they can star for a few years but over time they can NOT match equities if for no other reason than stocks generate an additional 40% with dividends.

Gold and silver's main competition are not stocks or bonds, but all the new cryptos IMO and they clearly had a lousy 2022 with tons of negative headlines.